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Originally posted by purplemer
Originally posted by Zarniwoop
Pretty interesting, is it just a coincidence?
Just a coincidence.
Each incident had the same 1 in 29.5 or so chance of happening on that particular phase of the moon. Those aren't huge odds.
The probability of these two events happening under the same moon phase are about 870/1.
Originally posted by humphreysjim
Originally posted by purplemer
Originally posted by Zarniwoop
Pretty interesting, is it just a coincidence?
Just a coincidence.
Each incident had the same 1 in 29.5 or so chance of happening on that particular phase of the moon. Those aren't huge odds.
The probability of these two events happening under the same moon phase are about 870/1.
What math did you use to come to that figure??? The moon is constantly changing phase, these "phases" are man-made inventions. In the OP, she is splitting the moon into 29.5 phases, which means the odds the events will happen on the same phase is just 29.5/1, much smaller than the odds you cited.
Edit: I see what you have done, multiplied 29.5 by 29.5. This is incorrect, this is not the odds for the event happening on the same phase, it is the odss for both events happening on that exact partiicular phase, which we have no great reason to prioritise over any other.
In short, your odds are wrong.edit on 20-12-2012 by humphreysjim because: (no reason given)
Originally posted by FriedBabelBroccoli
The odds of the two events happening on the same phase is calculated correctly wtf are you talking about? They calculated the odds for the two events occurring on the same particular moon phase and you say he is wrong because of what?
Nothing . . . . other than you alone have no reason to think there may be a connection.
It has been said for a long time that there are cults in places of power, this could be a possibility.
Multiply the probability of each event by one another. This will give you the probability of multiple events occurring one after another.
What is the probability of rolling two consecutive fives on a six-sided die?
The probability of both events is 1/6.
This gives us 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/36 or .027 or 2.7%.
Originally posted by FriedBabelBroccoli
reply to post by humphreysjim
There are two events the first one had a 1/29.5 chance and the second one had a 1/29.5 chance
Originally posted by purplemer
reply to post by humphreysjim
Thank you for your reply. Maths is not my strongest subject. I did not really understand your explanation. If I was wrong in my calculation could you please explain why I was wrong and how I should have worked it out. I thought it would be the same as trying to work out for example throwing two sixes on a dice. That would be a 1/36 chance or am I wrong here too...
Originally posted by humphreysjim
What are the odds of two people sharing the same birthday? Is it 365/1 or 13225/1?
Obviously is it 365/1. When you guys understand why, you'll see where you're miscalculating here.
Originally posted by FriedBabelBroccoli
The odds that a person with specific condition is born on a certain day is 1/365 the odds that another person with this same condition is born on that same day after the first is 1/13225.
Originally posted by eagleeye2
reply to post by MystikMushroom
The moon phase doesnt look exactly like OP showed, close though.
What about V Tech, Norway, Dawson College (Canada), 9-11, 7-7?
/eta
So far only vtech is close.edit on 19-12-2012 by eagleeye2 because: (no reason given)
Originally posted by FriedBabelBroccoli
The probability for consecutive mass murders in the same moon phase is about 1/900
The probability that a mass murder would occur in a certain moon phase is 1/29.5.
The premise of this thread was a connection between the two so you would have multiply them as they are consecutive.
Originally posted by FriedBabelBroccoli
You are trying to play lame math games and are not adding anything but confusion to the issue, nice try. The probability does not become 1 ever unless there is 100% accuracy in prediction.
Originally posted by humphreysjim
Originally posted by FriedBabelBroccoli
The odds that a person with specific condition is born on a certain day is 1/365 the odds that another person with this same condition is born on that same day after the first is 1/13225.
What condition? What are you even talking about?
What are the odds me and you were born on the same day of the year? 365/1, or 13225/1.
If you think 13225/1, you need to go back to school
Originally posted by FriedBabelBroccoli
You are not following the linear nature of the events as in one following the other. You would be right if you were talking about two separate instances but that is not the case here.
Originally posted by humphreysjim
Originally posted by FriedBabelBroccoli
You are not following the linear nature of the events as in one following the other. You would be right if you were talking about two separate instances but that is not the case here.
Of course one follows the other. One of us was born, and then the other was.
I am asking what are the chances we were born on the same day of the year?
Just like the shooting, there was one mass shooting, then another, what are the chances they were in the same moon phase? EXACTLY the same process is used to calculate the probability, and in neither case do you multiple them together.
Chances of us sharing a birth date=365/1. Chances of two shootings in the same moon phase = 29.5/1.
Thanks for playing. Stay in school.edit on 20-12-2012 by humphreysjim because: (no reason given)
So, let's talk about one example. Let's say what is the probability of getting three white balls in a row?