Polls Debunked: Democrats Oversampled

Originally posted by TDawgRex
reply to post by RELDDIR

 

Whats ironic though is while the polls are heavily Democratic based, Obama only leads by a slim margin. That's really saying something isn't it?

edit on 17-9-2012 by TDawgRex because: Misspelling...LOTS of it. Crap, I need more coffee.

no, the 2 party system usually gives us close elections. what's telling is obama has failed at almost every measure, and romney is still trailing

reply to post by Eurisko2012

GOP / Tea Party has enthusiasm.

There is a simple explanation.
Obama's 47% didn't pay their telephone bills...no phone...no pollster call.

Obama insiders secretly making retirement plans for the Obamas with the expectation the president will lose his bid for re-election in November.

Very quietly, Obama’s chief financier, Penny Pritzker, has entered the Hawaii housing market to buy a retirement home for the president and his family that will be available not in 2016, but in January 2013, according to a confidential source within Pritzker’s Chicago organization
Pritzker, a wealthy Chicago business executive and heiress to the Hyatt Hotels fortune, served as national finance chairman for Obama’s 2008 campaign and is the co-chairman of his 2012 effort.
Highly confidential internal polls conducted by the Obama campaign indicate Obama cannot win re-election, despite public surveys that show him in the lead.
“The public polls are mostly political,” the source argued. “Obama radicals want Romney supporters to feel discouraged and give up. Truth is that Romney’s winning.”
Obama is experiencing frustration in fundraising efforts, as wealthy donors who contributed generously to Obama in 2008 are not even returning phone calls.
Everything is for sale. Ambassadorships, government grants, stimulus money – you name it,
Obama’s have no intention of returning to Chicago when they leave the White House.
Obama presidential library and museum are slated for Hawaii.
A search for a developed property, suitable for occupancy four months from now, instead of property where a custom-designed estate might be built, is further indication that insiders believe Obama will not be re-elected.
.
.

reply to post by syrinx high priest


It'll be a close one.

The race between a hare and a hare or a turtle and a turtle.

To be truthful, I have no faith in polls.

But given the samplings that lean heavily Dem, and Obama is only leading by a slim margin?

I would say that is a wake up call for his campaign staff.

Polling Data
Poll Date Sample MoE Obama (D) Romney (R) Spread
Rasmussen Tracking
9/16 - 9/18 1500 LV 3.0 46 47 Romney +1
Associated Press/GfK
9/13 - 9/17 807 LV 4.3 47 46 Obama +1
Gallup Tracking
9/12 - 9/18 3050 RV 2.0 47 46 Obama +1

Originally posted by alternateuniverse
reply to post by Indigo5

 

Swing State Polls: Romney Leads Obama For Fourth Day In A Row

Obama won these 11 swing states with 146 electoral votes in 2008. Here is the daily swing state poll results for this election cycle:

Release Date Obama Romney NET
September 19, 2012 46 47 Romney +1
September 18, 2012 46 47 Romney +1
September 17, 2012 45 47 Romney +2
September 16, 2012 45 47 Romney +2
September 15, 2012 46 46 Even
September 14, 2012 46 46 Even
September 13, 2012 47 45 Obama +2
September 12, 2012 46 45 Obama +1
September 11, 2012 47 45 Obama +2
September 10, 2012 46 45 Obama +1
September 9, 2012 46 45 Obama +1
September 8, 2012 45 46 Romney +1
September 7, 2012 45 46 Romney +1
September 6, 2012 43 47 Romney +4
September 5, 2012 44 47 Romney +3
September 4, 2012 44 46 Romney +2
September 3, 2012 44 46 Romney +2
September 2, 2012 44 46 Romney +2
September 1, 2012 45 45 Even
August 31, 2012 45 45 Even
August 30, 2012 46 43 Obama +3
August 29, 2012 47 44 Obama +3
August 28, 2012 47 44 Obama +3
August 27, 2012 48 44 Obama +4
August 26, 2012 46 45 Obama +1

The exit polls for these 11 swing states in 2008 gave Obama a 7% margin of victory over John McCain, 53% vs. 46%. These numbers are identical to the national margin of victory for Obama in 2008.

As you can tell by the chart above, this is the fourth straight day Romney has been leading Obama. This race has always been and will be a very tight one.

Swing States: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin

Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
Swing State Daily Tracking: Romney 47%, Obama 46%
in Politics

www.rasmussenreports.com...

So Romney is rebooting his campaign because he is winning? Gaining ground? Happy with the way its going? Or because he is panicking? We know the GOP is ticked off at the way it is going. Romneys staff is playing the blame game. I have no idea why. I will send them links to this thread to let them know they are winning and that they have nothing to worry about.

Originally posted by Indigo5
reply to post by alternateuniverse

 

Meanwhile...back in reality...RCP Swing State polls

Virginia (13)
Obama +3.0


Florida (29)
Obama +1.4

Iowa (6)
Obama +0.2

Ohio (18)
Obama +4.2

North Carolina (15)
Romney +4.8

Colorado (9)
Obama +1.3

Nevada (6)
Obama +3.3

New Hampshire (4)
Obama +2.3

www.realclearpolitics.com...

Your RCP numbers add in the CBS polls.

Karl Rove busted you last night.

He showed 5 polls.

Bill O'Reilly and Karl Rove laughed out loud when CBS poll came up.

CBS added 13% more democrats than republicans!

Why even bother with a bogus poll ? The CBS poll is like a SNL skit.

Originally posted by MrSpad
So Romney is rebooting his campaign because he is winning? Gaining ground? Happy with the way its going? Or because he is panicking? We know the GOP is ticked off at the way it is going. Romneys staff is playing the blame game. I have no idea why. I will send them links to this thread to let them know they are winning and that they have nothing to worry about.

On October 5, 2012 the new Job Report will come out and sink Obama..

Trotting out the False Narrative about the Ambassador Chris Steven assassination in Benghazi

only makes the Obama Administration look like fools.

- They don't want to be held accountable for anything. -

The independents will wake up and elect President Mitt Romney November 6, 2012.

Originally posted by Surfrat
Obama insiders secretly making retirement plans for the Obamas with the expectation the president will lose his bid for re-election in November.

Very quietly, Obama’s chief financier, Penny Pritzker, has entered the Hawaii housing market to buy a retirement home for the president and his family that will be available not in 2016, but in January 2013, according to a confidential source within Pritzker’s Chicago organization
Pritzker, a wealthy Chicago business executive and heiress to the Hyatt Hotels fortune, served as national finance chairman for Obama’s 2008 campaign and is the co-chairman of his 2012 effort.
Highly confidential internal polls conducted by the Obama campaign indicate Obama cannot win re-election, despite public surveys that show him in the lead.
“The public polls are mostly political,” the source argued. “Obama radicals want Romney supporters to feel discouraged and give up. Truth is that Romney’s winning.”
Obama is experiencing frustration in fundraising efforts, as wealthy donors who contributed generously to Obama in 2008 are not even returning phone calls.
Everything is for sale. Ambassadorships, government grants, stimulus money – you name it,
Obama’s have no intention of returning to Chicago when they leave the White House.
Obama presidential library and museum are slated for Hawaii.
A search for a developed property, suitable for occupancy four months from now, instead of property where a custom-designed estate might be built, is further indication that insiders believe Obama will not be re-elected.
.

The reason why Obama is moving to Hawaii to retire in 2013:

Obama has never been over 50%.

The undecided usually vote for the challenger.

--------------
Welcome to the White House President Mitt Romney !

Obama left a big mess for you to clean up.

Originally posted by Eurisko2012


On October 5, 2012 the new Job Report will come out and sink Obama..

Where have I heard that before? Oh yah...you say the same thing every month. How is that cheer for disaster thing going for you?

Republicans start to panic over Mitt Romney's poll ratings

Romney has made a number of missteps during the presidential campaign, including not mentioning our troops in Afghanistan during his Republican National Convention speech, and flip-flopping yet again on health care reform. Indeed, just today, Romney has been hammered by foreign policy experts and Republican strategists by what they call his reckless comments in the wake of the attack on the U.S. embassy in Libya.

www.examiner.com...

And this doesn't even mention him accusing half of Americans and almost all seniors of not "taking responsibility for thier lives"

Good luck...6 weeks to go...

reply to post by Eurisko2012


CBS and other pollsters are showing more Democrats...cuz that is what the polls show...Independants, RPers etc are leaving Romney in the cold and fleeing the GOP...and rightly so..



BTW - Notice that knee jerk bump in self identified independants and fall in self-identified republicans when Romney got nominated!

THEY...DONT...LIKE HIM! Even the GOP base is holding thier nose...and nose holders are not enough for him to win.

Originally posted by Indigo5
reply to post by Eurisko2012

 

CBS and other pollsters are showing more Democrats...cuz that is what the polls show...Independants, RPers etc are leaving Romney in the cold and fleeing the GOP...and rightly so..

BTW - Notice that knee jerk bump in self identified independants and fall in self-identified republicans when Romney got nominated!

THEY...DONT...LIKE HIM! Even the GOP base is holding thier nose...and nose holders are not enough for him to win.

edit on 20-9-2012 by Indigo5 because: (no reason given)

edit on 20-9-2012 by Indigo5 because: (no reason given)

Funny you should mention CBS.

After they both laughed out loud at CBS. Karl Rove says the excuse is that republicans

are not answering the phone!

The message was clear after that segment. - Ignore CBS 100% of the time -

------------
BTW, Gallup just came out! - September 20, 2012 -

Romney 47%

Obama 47%

That -redistribution- video just sank Obama. It's time to move to Hawaii.

The undecided usually vote for the challenger. Ask Dick Morris.

Obama has never been above 50%. It's over.

-----------------Long Live the Mighty Tea Party !!! ------------------------

Originally posted by Eurisko2012

Welcome to the White House President Mitt Romney !

Obama left a big mess for you to clean up.

Well, by God, he'd better get it cleaned up in 3 1/2 years!
Or we're on to the next!
Because it will all be HIS fault by that time.

reply to post by Eurisko2012


47%, eh?

How ironic.

Originally posted by queenannie38

Originally posted by Eurisko2012

Welcome to the White House President Mitt Romney !

Obama left a big mess for you to clean up.

Well, by God, he'd better get it cleaned up in 3 1/2 years!
Or we're on to the next!
Because it will all be HIS fault by that time.

He WILL clean it up.

Of course, President Mitt Romney will get a lot of help from small businesses owners

across America. Jobs! --- Jobs! --- Jobs!

Reforming the Big 3 will actually be easier than i thought.

Social Security - MediCare - MediCaid

It's all very clear to me now.

Originally posted by queenannie38
reply to post by Eurisko2012

 

47%, eh?

How ironic.

Mitt Romney will be the only adult at the debates.

Obama is surrounded by failures and scandals. The Obama record is hard to hide from.

The time has come to hold Obama accountable.

Welcome to Obama's Wheel of Misfortune!




The - redistribution - tape is also hard to hide from. Socialists don't win elections.

Originally posted by Eurisko2012

Originally posted by queenannie38
reply to post by Eurisko2012

 

47%, eh?

How ironic.

Mitt Romney will be the only adult at the debates.

Obama is surrounded by failures and scandals. The Obama record is hard to hide from.

The time has come to hold Obama accountable.

Welcome to Obama's Wheel of Misfortune!




The - redistribution - tape is also hard to hide from. Socialists don't win elections.

Romney was bad in the primary debates. I think the GOP goal for the debates will be for him to ignore the questions and just repeat a few key points. Unless he now really has some sort of plan to fix things instead saying things will just work themselves out then he should start selling that. His should be shooting for not losing any ground in the debates. Or as little as possible.

reply to post by MrSpad


Who cares about the debates?

Turn on your TV.

Pakistan is in a total meltdown.

Apparently, spiking the football over killing Bin Laden has ripple effects across the world.

Obama's middle east foreign policies are in ruin.

----------------
The unemployment rate is too high. It's over.

Obama is on his way to Oahu to retire.

I've thought about this. I'm an Obama supporter in one of the safest blue states, NY. And I think he'll win the election. But I'm not certain.

It would not shock me at all if Romney gets Florida, Virginia, NC, and Ohio. Combined with safe reds, that puts Romney at 266.

I'm giving Penn. and Michigan to Obama, I would be shocked on those.

Still up for grabs are Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire. Romney would need just one of these. And all but NH were red in 04, but Obama by 7+ in 08. Tough call, tough call.

Really, depending on how the next few weeks go I could see Romney getting 300+, Obama getting 300+, or either winning in the 270's. Pretty standard election by recent trends.

My personal projection is that Obama will win Florida and a lot of the smaller swings. I have him getting somewhere between 300-320. Shaky, though, definitely shaky and based a lot on the major polls. So, we'll see.

I won't be walking on clouds or depressed on that Wednesday morning, regardless. Maybe a little depressed because a few dozen million die hards just lost, or because I know neither of these guys has the saving formula. Definitely not walking on clouds, though.

reply to post by PatrickGarrow17


Obama got in trouble with the Hispanic vote.

- Where was our amnesty ??? -

Obama: OOPS! Sorry about that.

Can't change the system from the inside? - No, we can't. -