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Polls Debunked: Democrats Oversampled

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posted on Sep, 17 2012 @ 09:36 AM
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Polls Debunked: Democrats Oversampled

Every major pollster with the exception of Rasmussen, has Democrats oversampling Republicans by an average of +6.43%. These pollsters used the prior election as their base model for consistency, but not accuracy. Rasmussen has a more accurate method of using current party affiliations surveys to sample their polls. This is why Rasmussen has consistently predicted presidential elections more accurately than his competitors.

The RCP (Real Clear Politics) average lead for Obama was 3.1% on September 15th based on an average oversampling of Democrats by 6.1%. The graphic from the source provides the disparity in detail.

Source: Obama’s National Lead Based Entirely on Over-Sampling Democrats
battlegroundwatch.com...




posted on Sep, 17 2012 @ 09:38 AM
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reply to post by RELDDIR
 


Whats ironic though is while the polls are heavily Democratic based, Obama only leads by a slim margin. That's really saying something isn't it?
edit on 17-9-2012 by TDawgRex because: Misspelling...LOTS of it. Crap, I need more coffee.



posted on Sep, 17 2012 @ 09:40 AM
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Yes, I have a feeling this election is a lot closer than we all think. We might end up 269-269.
reply to post by TDawgRex
 



posted on Sep, 17 2012 @ 09:46 AM
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As of August 31, 2012. Rasmussen has party affiliations as follows:

Republican = 37.6%
Democrats = 33.3%
Other = 29.2%

Source: Summary of Party Affiliation
www.rasmussenreports.com...



posted on Sep, 17 2012 @ 09:51 AM
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I don't think political polls give an accurate sampling of how American voters really feel about anything. Everyone I know in recent months has been constantly bombarded with phone calls from political pollsters, and every single person I know hangs up on them- and I'm talking people of ALL political leanings.

The general consensus among the people I've spoken to is that they refuse to participate in any of these polls because they fear any information they give may be used against them in some manner. And just to note, they are all normal minded people (as in non-conspiracy minded). It really says something to me that non-conspiracy minded people are becoming afraid to voice their political opinions for fear that those opinions will somehow be used against them.

What is happening to our country?



posted on Sep, 17 2012 @ 09:54 AM
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That's because more Democrats and Independents are registered and voted, based on the last presidential election. About 5-7% more Democrats than Republicans voted. So, that's why they poll more Democrats (by a margin up to 7%)...

2008 Voter Registration Statistics



Still, the national totals indicate that the 5.4% national increase in registration over 2004 came primarily from Independents and Democrats.


If you wanted to poll the country for a straight and gay issue, you would poll many more straight people, because they represent a greater percentage of society. You wouldn't poll an equal number of gay and straight people. THAT would provide inaccurate results.
edit on 9/17/2012 by Benevolent Heretic because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 17 2012 @ 10:23 AM
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Originally posted by RELDDIR
Polls Debunked: Democrats Oversampled

Every major pollster with the exception of Rasmussen, has Democrats oversampling Republicans by an average of +6.43%.


Rasmussen?? Yes...If you shift reality where the most bias of polls is the actual standard of objectivity...then yes every other pollster in existence is bias.

I'll try to help...though i know from experience that actual data or facts might not be your goal...

Rasmussen weights it's polls by a different metric than everybody else...







www.fivethirtyeight.com...



posted on Sep, 17 2012 @ 10:31 AM
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Using your outdated data graphs from 2008-9 is accurate?

Originally posted by Indigo5

Originally posted by RELDDIR
I'll try to help...though i know from experience that actual data or facts might not be your goal...



posted on Sep, 17 2012 @ 10:33 AM
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Originally posted by RELDDIR
Using your outdated data graphs from 2008-9 is accurate?




Has there been another presidential election since the 2008 election to extrapolate the data from?



posted on Sep, 17 2012 @ 10:42 AM
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reply to post by drwizardphd
 


Pollsters usually use either previous election results or they use current party affiliation surveys/polls in their analysis. The weakest link in most of these polls are using outdated information. Their accuracy depends on the data they use.



posted on Sep, 17 2012 @ 10:44 AM
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Polls leading up to election day for the Carter/Reagan election showed Carter 47, Reagan 39, Reagan won by a landslide. I don't trust polls and nobody else should either. Polls can cause people not to vote.



posted on Sep, 17 2012 @ 10:50 AM
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Originally posted by jimmiec
Polls leading up to election day for the Carter/Reagan election showed Carter 47, Reagan 39, Reagan won by a landslide. I don't trust polls and nobody else should either. Polls can cause people not to vote.

That is the reason why all the MSM outlets are touting this as word from God.



posted on Sep, 17 2012 @ 12:35 PM
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Originally posted by RELDDIR
Using your outdated data graphs from 2008-9 is accurate?


Is this where you pretend you didn't understand them?

One graph from before the 2008 Presidential elections showing party allegiance...

One showing "Generic Ballot"...not specifying candidate from PRESENT

and one showing averages SINCE 2009...

All showing Rasmussen as consistently the bias outlier...

Go ahead and cling to that Poll...cling to whatever you need to cling to...it is the nature of fanatic idealogues.

When Rasmussen shows your guy ahead...Polls are the absolute gospel accurate truth...

When EVERY other poll shows your candidate behind...Every other Poll is bias.

I have no doubt that these mental gymnastics bring your world-view comfort, but it also furthers a disconnect from objective thought and that doesn't benefit you. Better decisions...better arguments...better thinking comes from acknowledging reality.

Many GOP pundits are criticizing the Romney campaign right now and analyzing where it is failing...that at least is tethered to reality...and then the far right simply chooses not to acknowledge reality. From a pure strategic standpoint...all partisanship aside...good strategy should begin with acknowledging reality...not distorting it. There is a reason that the GOP is seen as "disconnected" from reality. It is a given mindset of the far-right who have hijacked the GOP...

Psst...Paul Revere did not ride town to town to warn the BRITISH...President Obama wasn't born in Kenya...Russia isn't the USA's number 1 Geopolitical Foe...The President never sympathized with those that killed our ambassador...and Mitt Romney's campaign is sinking....and one of the reasons it is sinking is because it is managed by folks unable to connect with reality.



posted on Sep, 17 2012 @ 12:46 PM
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The thing about polls is that they can be compared to reality after the elections take place...


Our process here is quite simple: we’ve taken all such polls in our database, and assessed how accurate they were, on average, in predicting the margin separating the two leading candidates in each race.

For instance, a poll that had the Democrat winning by 2 percentage points in a race where the Republican actually won by 4 would have an error of 6 points.




The 105 polls released in Senate and gubernatorial races by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, missed the final margin between the candidates by 5.8 points, a considerably higher figure than that achieved by most other pollsters.

Some 13 of its polls missed by 10 or more points, including one in the Hawaii Senate race that missed the final margin between the candidates by 40 points, the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998.

Moreover, Rasmussen’s polls were quite biased, overestimating the standing of the Republican candidate by almost 4 points on average.




The discrepancies between Rasmussen Reports polls and those issued by other companies were apparent from virtually the first day that Barack Obama took office. Rasmussen showed Barack Obama’s disapproval rating at 36 percent, for instance, just a week after his inauguration, at a point when no other pollster had that figure higher than 20 percent.


fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...



posted on Sep, 17 2012 @ 12:52 PM
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When it comes to the matter of political statistics and polling -- Nate Silver advises god. Everyone else comes with an agenda -- he is into the art and science of polling.



posted on Sep, 17 2012 @ 12:55 PM
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Do you ever read? Here is my re-post:

Pollsters usually use either previous election results or they use current party affiliation surveys/polls in their analysis. The weakest link in most of these polls are using outdated information. Their accuracy depends on the data they use.

[NOTICE: The weakest link in most of these polls are using outdated information]

You keep on attacking my threads without reading my posts. Here's your response to my previous threads. Do you believe in freedom of speech?

Cnn/Orc Poll: Unskewed...Romney Up 8
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Originally posted by Indigo5

Originally posted by RELDDIR
Using your outdated data graphs from 2008-9 is accurate?


Is this where you pretend you didn't understand them?

One graph from before the 2008 Presidential elections showing party allegiance...

One showing "Generic Ballot"...not specifying candidate from PRESENT

and one showing averages SINCE 2009...

All showing Rasmussen as consistently the bias outlier...

Go ahead and cling to that Poll...cling to whatever you need to cling to...it is the nature of fanatic idealogues.

When Rasmussen shows your guy ahead...Polls are the absolute gospel accurate truth...

When EVERY other poll shows your candidate behind...Every other Poll is bias.

I have no doubt that these mental gymnastics bring your world-view comfort, but it also furthers a disconnect from objective thought and that doesn't benefit you. Better decisions...better arguments...better thinking comes from acknowledging reality.

Many GOP pundits are criticizing the Romney campaign right now and analyzing where it is failing...that at least is tethered to reality...and then the far right simply chooses not to acknowledge reality. From a pure strategic standpoint...all partisanship aside...good strategy should begin with acknowledging reality...not distorting it. There is a reason that the GOP is seen as "disconnected" from reality. It is a given mindset of the far-right who have hijacked the GOP...

Psst...Paul Revere did not ride town to town to warn the BRITISH...President Obama wasn't born in Kenya...Russia isn't the USA's number 1 Geopolitical Foe...The President never sympathized with those that killed our ambassador...and Mitt Romney's campaign is sinking....and one of the reasons it is sinking is because it is managed by folks unable to connect with reality.
edit on 17-9-2012 by RELDDIR because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 17 2012 @ 12:56 PM
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The only poll that will matter is in November.
Anything prior to that is subject to the whims of the pollsters.



posted on Sep, 17 2012 @ 12:59 PM
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Rasmussen and Pew were the most accurate polls in 2008. My advice to you, don't open your mouth without using your brain.
Pew and Rasmussen Most Accurate Pollsters of 2008 By Greg Pollowitz
www.nationalreview.com...#

Originally posted by Indigo5

The thing about polls is that they can be compared to reality after the elections take place...



posted on Sep, 17 2012 @ 01:03 PM
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reply to post by FlyersFan
 



Originally posted by FlyersFan
The only poll that will matter is in November.


Agreed! People can guess all they want, but there is only ONE poll that matters.



posted on Sep, 17 2012 @ 01:11 PM
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Originally posted by Benevolent Heretic
reply to post by FlyersFan
 



Originally posted by FlyersFan
The only poll that will matter is in November.


Agreed! People can guess all they want, but there is only ONE poll that matters.


True - there's about a month and a half left and anything can happen, but if you're interested in these sorts of things, you can't ignore 538 based on its track record. I know I'll be monitoring it over the course of the next 90 days..

fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...





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