Polls Debunked: Democrats Oversampled

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posted on Sep, 18 2012 @ 01:50 PM
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reply to post by thepresident
 


I can already hear the Obama concession speech.

- I gave it a fair shot and lost. -

There will be an orderly transfer of power to the Romney administration.........




posted on Sep, 18 2012 @ 01:51 PM
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reply to post by Carseller4
 


The same applies for Romney.
And Romney's past is catching up fast on his rear end with large sharp chomping teeth.



posted on Sep, 19 2012 @ 09:02 AM
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Originally posted by queenannie38
reply to post by Carseller4
 


The same applies for Romney.
And Romney's past is catching up fast on his rear end with large sharp chomping teeth.


Obama's past has already caught up to him.

2016: Obama's America has grossed over $30,000,000 !


Not bad for a documentary.



posted on Sep, 19 2012 @ 11:45 AM
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According to most of your posts, you seldom answer other people's questions and you don't listen to their replies either. Are you actually here to debate or to cause havoc? I joined today, just to point that out. It's also relevant to point out other threads involving polls. Do you take polls that personal?

I'm looking forward many debates with you. And I will not respond to you, unless you are on topic.
reply to post by Indigo5
 



posted on Sep, 19 2012 @ 12:10 PM
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Originally posted by alternateuniverse
According to most of your posts, you seldom answer other people's questions and you don't listen to their replies either. Are you actually here to debate or to cause havoc? I joined today, just to point that out. It's also relevant to point out other threads involving polls. Do you take polls that personal?

I'm looking forward many debates with you. And I will not respond to you, unless you are on topic.
reply to post by Indigo5
 




That is hilarious...hmm...Someone that just joined just to let me know they wouldn't respond to my posts...and someone who espouses the view that my providing actual on-point links and sources in rebuttal to RELDDIR's crazy claims is somehow off topic?

Who posts in the same format and tone as RELDDIR? Really? This thread spurred you to join? You just NEEDED to join to repeat what RELDDIR has falsely claimed?

RELDDIR...I like you...you do give me chuckles...please review T&C, cuz if the Mods Opt to check your IP, creating a second account under another name will earn you an instant ban....And if it helps...Polls don't warrant "emotional" responses...nothing here has evoked me emotionally...I am not the one throwing a tantrum...I simply pointed out the utter BS in this OP...and did so with a tonnage of sources, links and evidence.



Originally posted by RELDDIR
Polls evoke an unreasonably emotional response, much like an attack. Why are people so agressive? Are the polls personal? It defies logic.



Originally posted by RELDDIR
I will ignore you from now on. That will be my first step. Don't push it.
reply to post by Indigo5
 


edit on 19-9-2012 by Indigo5 because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 19 2012 @ 12:36 PM
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Hilarious? You couldn't even get your facts straight on the other thread you destroyed. Go back and re-read my friend. I cannot attack your intelligence, but your bias and denial are apparent.
Cnn/Orc Poll: Unskewed...Romney Up 8
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Do you have any facts that I am RELDDIR? Your claims are as preposterous as your replies to threads. Your immediate characterization of a new member, already shows you go far off-topic just to satisfy your ego. Why don't you re-read the terms and conditions yourself? I had to do it to join today.

And, If you can't stand someone like me. Please report it to the Mods. Your political baiting and games you play with others won't work with me.

If you want a debate you got one. If you don't, then play your silly games. And no one will take you seriously.

-au



posted on Sep, 19 2012 @ 01:19 PM
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Originally posted by alternateuniverse
Hilarious? You couldn't even get your facts straight on the other thread you destroyed. Go back and re-read my friend. I cannot attack your intelligence, but your bias and denial are apparent.
Cnn/Orc Poll: Unskewed...Romney Up 8
www.abovetopsecret.com...


So you felt compeleld to join ATS to defend RELDDIR? on this thread that was debunked by page 3... based on a false OP claiming something that the entirety of reality debunks? AND whine about RELDDIR's other thread that I "attacked" with pesky facts and citations?


Originally posted by alternateuniverse
Do you have any facts that I am RELDDIR? Your claims are as preposterous as your replies to threads.


No...but I don't care enough to alert the Mods...unless you would like me too? they track IP addys for the purposes of confirming logins and making sure folks don't open multiple accounts...shall we see?

Just let me know...RELDDIR


Originally posted by alternateuniverse

If you want a debate you got one. If you don't, then play your silly games. And no one will take you seriously.

-au


Debate what? You haven't claimed anything? You have not rebutted a single item amongst the tonage of evidence I provided showing this OP to be fantasy...You haven't actually said or supported anything....Only threw a tantrum..Or rather continued one under a new name...great comedy!


Offer me some substance and I will respond...most likely by citing a prior post on this very thread. I, and other posters, dismantled the OPs claim rather thoroughly.
edit on 19-9-2012 by Indigo5 because: (no reason given)
edit on 19-9-2012 by Indigo5 because: (no reason given)
edit on 19-9-2012 by Indigo5 because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 19 2012 @ 01:35 PM
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Polls can tell you anything you want if you set them up correctly.

I don't know why they seemingly have over-sampled one party more than the current percentages of party affiliation show. If you are using 2008 numbers to generate %'s then that is screwy too since the Dems were fired up and the Republicans not.You could make a case for using last elections percentages if the dynamics stayed the same, but they haven't. Even the media has been talking about how overall support and enthusiasm for Pres. Obama is down from 2008 levels, so why would they predict a similar Democratic turnout?

I think this race is going to be far closer than either side wants or predicts.


The Debates and what happens in Iran in the next 6 weeks is going to determine it.



posted on Sep, 19 2012 @ 01:43 PM
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Originally posted by pavil
Polls can tell you anything you want if you set them up correctly.

I don't know why they seemingly have over-sampled one party more than the current percentages of party affiliation show. If you are using 2008 numbers to generate %'s then that is screwy too since the Dems were fired up and the Republicans not.You could make a case for using last elections percentages if the dynamics stayed the same, but they haven't. Even the media has been talking about how overall support and enthusiasm for Pres. Obama is down from 2008 levels, so why would they predict a similar Democratic turnout?

I think this race is going to be far closer than either side wants or predicts.


The Debates and what happens in Iran in the next 6 weeks is going to determine it.


President Mitt Romney will win with 320 Electoral Votes.

The professors in Colorado are correct.


Keep an eye on October Job Report.

---------
The liberals are losing enthusiasm.

- Low Voter Turnout -

- Obama is doomed -



posted on Sep, 19 2012 @ 01:59 PM
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Originally posted by pavil
Polls can tell you anything you want if you set them up correctly.

I don't know why they seemingly have over-sampled one party more than the current percentages of party affiliation show. If you are using 2008 numbers to generate %'s then that is screwy too since the Dems were fired up and the Republicans not.


Agreed, but almost all the polls that are using "party affiliation" models and resultant weightings base thier affiliations on recent surveys and research...not 2008.

That said dome pollsters like Pew Research feel weighting the Poll results for party affiliation during an election year is flawed, since party affiliation is closely tied to candidates popularity which ebbs and flows during an election year.

Thus Pew showed a +10 advantage for Pres. Obama...since they didn't weight for party...but they make a reasonable case for why they shouldn't ...

This shows "Party Affiliation" as sampled over the past year...You can see the relationship between "Independant" and "republican" during the nomination process...consider Ron Paul supporters? Conservative? Yes...Staunch GOP? No...now some return to the fold and back Romney...some don't...Some Republican/independants might no longer consider themselves Republican if they really don't like Romney...consider him like Obama...or are big RPers....all of that reflected in a variable "Party affilaition"...

Green line...independants.



www.people-press.org...



38% of registered voters said they think of themselves as Democrats, 25% as Republicans, and 33% as independents .

While it would be easy to standardize the distribution of Democrats, Republicans and independents across all of these surveys, this would unquestionably be the wrong thing to do.

While all of our surveys are statistically adjusted to represent the proper proportion of Americans in different regions of the country; younger and older Americans; whites, African Americans and Hispanics; and even the correct share of adults who rely on cell phones as opposed to landline phones, these are all known, and relatively stable, characteristics of the population that can be verified off of U.S. Census Bureau data or other high quality government data sources.

Party identification is another thing entirely. Most fundamentally, it is an attitude, not a demographic. To put it simply, party identification is one of the aspects of public opinion that our surveys are trying to measure, not something that we know ahead of time like the share of adults who are African American, female, or who live in the South.
edit on 19-9-2012 by Indigo5 because: (no reason given)



posted on Sep, 19 2012 @ 02:08 PM
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Originally posted by queenannie38
reply to post by Carseller4
 


The same applies for Romney.
And Romney's past is catching up fast on his rear end with large sharp chomping teeth.


I checked the polls.

- Wisconsin has gone to Romney ------- Done

- North Carolina has gone to Romney --- Done

- New Hampshire has gone to Romney - Done

- Colorado has gone to Romney ----------- Done

----------

It looks like Obama is spending $$$ in Florida & Ohio.

Obama is still in trouble over the middle east foreign policy disaster.

-- Too many burning flags --

Bengazi - assassination of Ambassador Chris Stevens false narrative has failed.

It was a terrorist attack.



posted on Sep, 19 2012 @ 02:13 PM
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Originally posted by Eurisko2012

Originally posted by queenannie38
reply to post by Carseller4
 


The same applies for Romney.
And Romney's past is catching up fast on his rear end with large sharp chomping teeth.


I checked the polls.

- Wisconsin has gone to Romney ------- Done

- North Carolina has gone to Romney --- Done

- New Hampshire has gone to Romney - Done

- Colorado has gone to Romney ----------- Done



Polls?

Link Please...to Polls...plural..or are you just cherry picking amongst Rasmussen?



posted on Sep, 19 2012 @ 02:18 PM
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reply to post by Indigo5
 


It looks Virginia, Ohio & Florida independents are waiting for the October Job Report.

Obama is still too low in the polls.

He can't defend his record so he is hanging out with Letterman.


-----------
GOP / Tea Party has enthusiasm.


The presidential election will look very similar to the Gov. Scott Walker recall election.

- Not Even Close -



posted on Sep, 19 2012 @ 02:25 PM
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Originally posted by Eurisko2012

Originally posted by queenannie38
reply to post by Carseller4
 


The same applies for Romney.
And Romney's past is catching up fast on his rear end with large sharp chomping teeth.


I checked the polls.

- Wisconsin has gone to Romney ------- Done

- North Carolina has gone to Romney --- Done

- New Hampshire has gone to Romney - Done

- Colorado has gone to Romney ----------- Done



* Todays polls...the only outlier Rasmussen...and Wow...do you make stuff up...
www.realclearpolitics.com...

Wednesday, September 19

Colorado

CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac

Obama 48, Romney 47

Obama +1



Virginia

CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac

Obama 50, Romney 46

Obama +4



Wisconsin

CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac

Obama 51, Romney 45

Obama +6



New Hampshire

Rasmussen Reports

Obama 45, Romney 48

Romney +3



Virginia

WeAskAmerica*

Obama 49, Romney 46

Obama +3



Wisconsin

Marquette University

Obama 54, Romney 40

Obama +14



posted on Sep, 19 2012 @ 02:29 PM
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reply to post by Indigo5
 


CBS stacks their polls.


Even Bob Beckel has given up the states i mentioned.

Obama's record has caught up with him.



posted on Sep, 19 2012 @ 02:43 PM
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Originally posted by Eurisko2012
reply to post by Indigo5
 


CBS stacks their polls.


Even Bob Beckel has given up the states i mentioned.

Obama's record has caught up with him.


Of course they do
Just like every other Poll today who shows Obama leading in Colorado...What color is the sky in your world?

Denver Post/SurveyUSA

Project New America/Keating (D)

PPP (D)

Keating (D)

Purple Strategies

www.realclearpolitics.com...

I can do the same for every state you mentioned...I remember when you were convinced Palin would eb the next President



posted on Sep, 19 2012 @ 02:52 PM
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reply to post by Indigo5
 


It's the title of the thread: Poll Debunked - Democrats oversampled.

Everything will become more clear to you November 6, 2012.

---------
Stacking polls with democrats won't work on election day.


I think you know in your heart that Obama has already lost.



posted on Sep, 19 2012 @ 02:56 PM
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Originally posted by jimmiec
Polls leading up to election day for the Carter/Reagan election showed Carter 47, Reagan 39, Reagan won by a landslide. I don't trust polls and nobody else should either. Polls can cause people not to vote.


The Carter / Reagan election result will look very similar to the Obama / Romney election result.

It will be:

Romney 54%

Obama 46%

The terrible Job Reports will sink Obama.

We are clearly worse off today than we were 4 years ago.



posted on Sep, 19 2012 @ 05:50 PM
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reply to post by Indigo5
 


Swing State Polls: Romney Leads Obama For Fourth Day In A Row

Obama won these 11 swing states with 146 electoral votes in 2008. Here is the daily swing state poll results for this election cycle:

Release Date Obama Romney NET
September 19, 2012 46 47 Romney +1
September 18, 2012 46 47 Romney +1
September 17, 2012 45 47 Romney +2
September 16, 2012 45 47 Romney +2
September 15, 2012 46 46 Even
September 14, 2012 46 46 Even
September 13, 2012 47 45 Obama +2
September 12, 2012 46 45 Obama +1
September 11, 2012 47 45 Obama +2
September 10, 2012 46 45 Obama +1
September 9, 2012 46 45 Obama +1
September 8, 2012 45 46 Romney +1
September 7, 2012 45 46 Romney +1
September 6, 2012 43 47 Romney +4
September 5, 2012 44 47 Romney +3
September 4, 2012 44 46 Romney +2
September 3, 2012 44 46 Romney +2
September 2, 2012 44 46 Romney +2
September 1, 2012 45 45 Even
August 31, 2012 45 45 Even
August 30, 2012 46 43 Obama +3
August 29, 2012 47 44 Obama +3
August 28, 2012 47 44 Obama +3
August 27, 2012 48 44 Obama +4
August 26, 2012 46 45 Obama +1

The exit polls for these 11 swing states in 2008 gave Obama a 7% margin of victory over John McCain, 53% vs. 46%. These numbers are identical to the national margin of victory for Obama in 2008.

As you can tell by the chart above, this is the fourth straight day Romney has been leading Obama. This race has always been and will be a very tight one.

Swing States: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin

Daily Swing State Tracking Poll
Swing State Daily Tracking: Romney 47%, Obama 46%
in Politics

www.rasmussenreports.com...



posted on Sep, 19 2012 @ 06:00 PM
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reply to post by alternateuniverse
 


Meanwhile...back in reality...RCP Swing State polls

Virginia (13)
Obama +3.0


Florida (29)
Obama +1.4

Iowa (6)
Obama +0.2

Ohio (18)
Obama +4.2

North Carolina (15)
Romney +4.8

Colorado (9)
Obama +1.3

Nevada (6)
Obama +3.3

New Hampshire (4)
Obama +2.3



www.realclearpolitics.com...





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