Polls Debunked: Democrats Oversampled

reply to post by Eurisko2012


Obama is still the better choice for immigrants, many of whom are poor. Don't think they'll vote for Romney out of spite. Certainly a possibility that they turn out in fewer numbers, though, which could be equally destructive to Obama.

In Florida, though, I think Obama will get a good turnout and support from the elderly as they become nervous about social security and medicare plans of GOP. Of course, there isn't any reason for that since Reps won't strip benefits from current collectors. Nevertheless, the view of Romney being anti-elderly will be out there.

But like I said, wouldn't be surprised either way.

Gallup Friday Obama 47%, Romney 47%

Election 2012 Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney Among registered voters
www.gallup.com...

Currently On Intrade:

Obama

Best (lowest) price members are selling at
Price per share Quantity

$7.49 1006 shares
$7.50 1001 shares
$8.00 1 share
$8.50 1 share
$8.99 7 shares
$9.93 1000 shares
$9.94 223 shares
$9.95 1000 shares

Looks like foreign investors on intrade are squeezing every last juice out of Obama shares, before "the shift" happens.

Originally posted by RELDDIR
Let me guess...You put your money on the SCOTUS(Supreme Court of the United States) not passing the individual mandate of Obamacare. On that very morning before the SCOTUS decisions, intrade was 2 to 1 on the mandate not passing. It passed and a lot of idiots lost money.

The majority of Intrade are people outside the United States investing (gambling on Intrade). They purchase large amounts on both sides. And they leverage profit taking along the way. If you just pay $5 to comment there you wouldn't know it. BTW, a big chunk of Obama shares have just been sold.

Originally posted by aethertek
Remember that old saying that "Money talks & BS walks"?
Well the money says four more years, people putting up cold hard cash not partisan trash say Obama for the win.

www.intrade.com...

All these anti Obama threads started every damn day are starting to smell like weak desperation.
Why don't you start pro Rmoney threads instead touting all the wonderful policies he has, right you can't because his whole campaign thus far has been the usual empty sloganeering.

He would do to this country just what he did with all those companies he bankrupted, he & his buddies get richer while he sells you out to the highest bidder.
But go ahead vote the billionaires boy into power, because people like Rmoney, Adelson & the Koch bros care so much about people like you.

Originally posted by PatrickGarrow17
reply to post by Eurisko2012

 

Obama is still the better choice for immigrants, many of whom are poor. Don't think they'll vote for Romney out of spite. Certainly a possibility that they turn out in fewer numbers, though, which could be equally destructive to Obama.

In Florida, though, I think Obama will get a good turnout and support from the elderly as they become nervous about social security and medicare plans of GOP. Of course, there isn't any reason for that since Reps won't strip benefits from current collectors. Nevertheless, the view of Romney being anti-elderly will be out there.

But like I said, wouldn't be surprised either way.

Trust me Obama is on his way to the island of Oahu.

It's all going wrong.

The War on Terror is back on!

Ambassador Chris Stevens was tortured before he was killed.

A congressman spilled the beans from his intelligence briefing.

Al Qaeda is looking for revenge.

Obama can't spike the football anymore.

Maybe you're right, and I saw your map projection in the other thread. I'm goinig on what I see and so are you. I think Obama will get Colorado, Nevada, Iowa and Wisconsin as well as Florida. There would have to be a major news story that results in a nationwide shift toward Romney for Obama to lose, I think.

Originally posted by PatrickGarrow17
Maybe you're right, and I saw your map projection in the other thread. I'm goinig on what I see and so are you. I think Obama will get Colorado, Nevada, Iowa and Wisconsin as well as Florida. There would have to be a major news story that results in a nationwide shift toward Romney for Obama to lose, I think.

Check back on October 21, 2012.

The political landscape is beginning to change.

You won't actually see my Electoral Map until November 7, 2012.



Dick Morris says Pennsylvania will also go to Romney.

reply to post by Eurisko2012


Dick Morris on Why The Polls Under State Romney Vote:

Republicans are getting depressed under an avalanche of polling suggesting that an Obama victory is in the offing. They, in fact, suggest no such thing! Here’s why:

1. All of the polling out there uses some variant of the 2008 election turnout as its model for weighting respondents and this overstates the Democratic vote by a huge margin.
In English, this means that when you do a poll you ask people if they are likely to vote. But any telephone survey always has too few blacks, Latinos, and young people and too many elderly in its sample. That’s because some don’t have landlines or are rarely at home or don’t speak English well enough to be interviewed or don’t have time to talk. Elderly are overstated because they tend to be home and to have time. So you need to increase the weight given to interviews with young people, blacks and Latinos and count those with seniors a bit less.

Normally, this task is not difficult. Over the years, the black, Latino, young, and elderly proportion of the electorate has been fairly constant from election to election, except for a gradual increase in the Hispanic vote. You just need to look back at the last election to weight your polling numbers for this one.

But 2008 was no ordinary election. Blacks, for example, usually cast only 11% of the vote, but, in 2008, they made up 14% of the vote. Latinos increased their share of the vote by 1.5% and college kids almost doubled their vote share. Almost all pollsters are using the 2008 turnout models in weighting their samples. Rasmussen, more accurately, uses a mixture of 2008 and 2004 turnouts in determining his sample. That’s why his data usually is better for Romney.

But polling indicates a widespread lack of enthusiasm among Obama’s core demographic support due to high unemployment, disappointment with his policies and performance, and the lack of novelty in voting for a black candidate now that he has already served as president.

If you adjust virtually any of the published polls to reflect the 2004 vote, not the 2008 vote, they show the race either tied or Romney ahead, a view much closer to reality.

2. Almost all of the published polls show Obama getting less than 50% of the vote and less than 50% job approval. A majority of the voters either support Romney or are undecided in almost every poll.

But the fact is that the undecided vote always goes against the incumbent. In 1980 (the last time an incumbent Democrat was beaten), for example, the Gallup Poll of October 27th had Carter ahead by 45-39. Their survey on November 2nd showed Reagan catching up and leading by three points. In the actual voting, the Republican won by nine. The undecided vote broke sharply — and unanimously — for the challenger.

An undecided voter has really decided not to back the incumbent. He just won’t focus on the race until later in the game.

So, when the published poll shows Obama ahead by, say, 48-45, he’s really probably losing by 52-48!

Add these two factors together and the polls that are out there are all misleading. Any professional pollster (those consultants hired by candidates not by media outlets) would publish two findings for each poll — one using 2004 turnout modeling and the other using 2008 modeling. This would indicate just how dependent on an unusually high turnout of his base the Obama camp really is.

Why The Polls Under State Romney Vote By Dick Morris on September 21, 2012
www.dickmorris.com...

reply to post by alternateuniverse


Right now we see:

Romney 47%

Obama 47%

Just check back on October 5, 2012.

That's when the next Job Growth Report arrives.

I expect more bad news for Obama.

He is already on his way to his new home on Oahu.

210 North Kalaheo Ave

Zillow.com shows it at $29,000,000.

- Beachfront Estate -

Originally posted by Eurisko2012

Of course, President Mitt Romney will get a lot of help from small businesses owners

Yeah, the whole 3% that make more than $250,000 a year.

Originally posted by queenannie38

Originally posted by Eurisko2012

Of course, President Mitt Romney will get a lot of help from small businesses owners

Yeah, the whole 3% that make more than $250,000 a year.

Small businesses create jobs.

Socialists are unaware of this fact.

- Grow the private sector. -

Polls are just another mechanism to help nudge the sheep/cattle into the shute for transport to the slaughter house.

Originally posted by hawkiye
Polls are just another mechanism to help nudge the sheep/cattle into the shute for transport to the slaughter house.

The polls reveal that Obama is way below 50%.

It's time to go to Oahu. --- Aloha ! ---

------------
America tried on a socialist suit and it didn't fit.

Skewed and Unskewed Polls by
Charlie Martin

In most all things, I try to follow Hanlon’s (or Heinlein’s) Razor: “Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.”

This is particularly important to remember when looking at polls.Sometimes, however, one must wonder.

As I pointed out yesterday, the result of Romney’s “really bad week” was that Romney had gone from 5 or 6 points behind in Gallup, to essentially tied. Even so, a number of people have noted that there are some odd assumptions in that poll, and others. Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen talked about it recently. Asked if the polls were, in his opinion, a fair representation of the electorate, Schoen said:

“The simple answer is no John. The bottom line is there were seven percent more Democrats in the electorate in 2008 than there were Republicans. That’s from the exit polls and that’s about as accurate as you can get….President Obama won by about seven points. Given 90 percent of Democrats vote for the Democrat and 90 percent of Republicans vote for the Republican, every time you reduce the margin between the parties by one point, roughly it’s about one point off the margin.”

Schoen pointed out that the Pew poll was based on Democrats sampled for having an 11 percent voters registration edge over Republicans. He further added, “saying that America has gotten more Democratic than 2008, which is a questionable assumption.”

In fact, Rasmussen keeps a running monthly poll of party identification. In the latest poll, released September 1, they found:

During August, 37.6% of Americans considered themselves Republicans. That’s up from 34.9% in July and 35.4% in June. It’s also the largest number of Republicans ever recorded by Rasmussen Report since monthly tracking began in November 2002.

Other polls — including Gallup — apparently have similar assumptions (called “turnout models”) in their polls.

There is a new website, called unskewedpolls.com, that basically reweights the data to fit the Rasmussen party identification. Their results are quite different, giving Romney somewhere between a five and eleven point lead.

Now, this should also be taken with a grain of salt. Basically, they claim (by the site name) to be an unskewed poll. In fact, they’re just a differently skewed take on existing polls. Instead of taking their numbers over, say, Gallup, though, what it should tell us is that even if the polls are being heavily weighted to Obama, Romney’s still essentially tied. Any difference in Romney’s direction in real turnout from the pollster’s assumptions would bring Romney into a lead.

More: Wake Up, Mainstream Media: If Tide Is Shifting, It’s in Romney’s Direction

pjmedia.com...

So when Obama wins the election, does that mean the election will be debunked because Democrats were over-sampled in the election?

Democrats would win every election if the voters turned out, this country is slightly more left leaning than right. But there is also a lot of voter apathy and people just don't go out and vote.

Romney leads 14 pt. among middle class, 55% vs 41%.

Republican poll analysis: Romney winning with middle-class families By ED GOEAS and BRIAN NIENABER
www.politico.com...

A new website, www.unskewedpolls.com... reweighs data to fit current party identification. The reweighed results are different and Romney has the lead between 5 and 11 points.


General Election: Romney vs. Obama

UnSkewed Polling Data
Monday, September 24, 2012 12:22:51 PM
Poll Date Sample MoE Obama(D) Romney(R) Spread
UnSkewed Avg. 9/4 - 9/20 -- -- 44.0 51.8 Romney +7.8
Reason/Rupe 9/13 - 9/17 787 LV 4.3 45.0 52.0 Romney +7
Reuters/Ipsos 9/12 - 9/20 1437 LV 2.9 44.0 54.0 Romney +10
NBC News/WSJ 9/12 - 9/16 736 LV 3.6 44.0 51.0 Romney +7
Monmouth Univ. 9/13 - 9/16 1344 LV 2.5 45.0 50.0 Romney +5
QStarNews 9/10 - 9/15 2075 3.0 44.0 55.0 Romney +11
NY Times/CBS News 9/8 - 9/12 1162 LV 3.0 44.0 51.0 Romney +7
Democracy Corps 9/8 - 9/12 1000 LV 3.1 43.0 52.0 Romney +8
Fox News 9/9 - 9/11 1056 LV 3.0 45.0 48.0 Romney +3
Wash. Post/ABC News 9/7 - 9/9 826 LV 4.0 45.0 52.0 Romney +7
CNN/ORC 9/7 - 9/9 875 RV 3.5 45.0 53.0 Romney +8
IBD/CSM/TIPP 9/4 - 9/9 808 RV 3.5 41.0 50.0 Romney +9
ARG 9/4 - 9/6 1200 LV 3.0 43.0 53.0 Romney +10



UnSkewed Polling Data
Poll Date Sample MoE Approval Disapproval Spread
UnSkewed Avg. 9/4 - 9/20 -- -- 44.1 52.9 Disapproval 8.8
Reason/Rupe 9/13 - 9/17 787 LV 4.3 44.0 53.0 Disapproval 9
NBC News/WSJ 9/12 - 9/16 736 LV 3.6 44.0 54.0 Disapproval 10
QStarNews 9/10 - 9/15 2075 3.0 45.0 55.0 Disapproval 10
NY Times/CBS News 9/8 - 9/12 1162 LV 3.0 44.0 51.0 Disapproval 7
Democracy Corps 9/8 - 9/12 1000 LV 3.1 42.0 55.0 Disapproval 13
Fox News 9/9 - 9/11 1056 LV 3.0 45.0 53.0 Disapproval 8
Wash. Post/ABC News 9/7 - 9/9 826 LV 4.0 45.0 49.0 Disapproval 4
CNN/ORC 9/7 - 9/9 875 RV 3.5 44.0 53.0 Disapproval 9

www.unskewedpolls.com...

Why Our Recent Polling (Is Accurate) and Shows a Close Election for President
Posted on September 24, 2012

Recently two polls conducted by our firm showing President Obama narrowly leading Mitt Romney by 1 point (48% to 47%, sponsored by the Republican State Committee of Penna.), and a second released by the Pittsburgh Tribune Review on Sunday, September 23 showing Obama leading Romney by 2 points (47%-45%). Both margins conflict with other surveys conducted recently including one by the Philadelphia Inquirer (Obama +11) and Muhlenberg College (Obama +9). Following are answers to questions about our survey methodology as well as our basis for predicting a close election.

Our vote model for gauging the number of interviews conducted with voters of different demographic groups (things like party affiliation, racial background and age range, etc.) is a blend of turnout models from both the 2008 and 2004 presidential elections, but leans more towards 2004 VTO and is predicated on the belief that turnout this November will not be anywhere near ’08 levels when 5.9 million votes were cast.

First, our ratio of interviews conducted with Republicans and Democrats in our recent polls (49D – 43R) gives Democrats a 6-point advantage based on the fact that Democrats outnumber Republicans in actual registration. However, this ratio is slightly more Republican based on both national and state polling showing that Republicans are more likely to vote than Democrats this year given high intensity among Republicans who strongly disapprove of the President’s job performance. Nonetheless, this +6 Democratic advantage is only one point less Democrat than the 7-point advantage these same exit polls gave Democrats in the 2008 presidential election. Besides, simply conducting more surveys with Democratic voters (as some have suggested) doesn’t necessarily translate into more votes for President Obama when you consider that Mitt Romney is winning Democratic-leaning counties in Western Pennsylvania by ten or more percentage points. Nonetheless, it is entirely appropriate to sample Republicans one or two points higher than in 2008 if you believe as we do that voter turnout this November will have little resemblance to the last presidential election.

Second, our ratio of younger to older voters reflects turnout that is likely to be slightly higher with older voters given the lack of enthusiasm from younger voters. In our surveys, 18-44 yr. olds make up 30% of all interviews and voters 45 years of age and older represent the remaining seventy percent. For instance, according to 2008 exit polls voter turnout among 18-29 year olds peaked at 18%, but national and state polling proves interest among younger voters down sharply this year due to higher unemployment with younger voters and college graduates in particular. So conducting approximately ten percent of surveys with 18-29 year olds is a reflection of this lower anticipated turnout among these less-enthusiastic voters. Besides, the fact that Obama backers have suggested that over sampling older voters skews results in favor of Mitt Romney is a striking revelation in a state like Pennsylvania known for having the 5th largest population of senior citizens in the country.

Third, recent polls showing a double-digit lead for Obama are not believable, and are probably using the 2008 voter turnout as the basis of their survey model. It is simply unrealistic to think Obama can or will win the Keystone State by the same double-digit margin he won by four years ago when you consider that most state and national polls continue to show most voters unhappy with the direction of the country after two straight years of unemployment at 8% or higher. This is why our statewide polls conducted every month since the primaries shows the President failing to hit fifty percent in most key measurements like favorable name ID, job approval and his ballot score. Plus, polling we have conducted in dozens of state senate and house races on behalf of incumbent legislators and other candidates, PACs and other special interest groups shows Obama’s support down an average of seven percent when compared with his vote margins in these same districts four years ago. We estimate this 7-point drop off could mean up to 434,000 fewer votes cast for Obama this November, leaving a margin of less than 200,000 votes between the candidates. Based on this, perhaps the Phil’ Inquirer poll showing Obama winning by a bigger margin than he won by four years ago is the real outlier.

For these reasons and others we fully stand by our results, and all indications are that the upcoming election will be closer than many others suggest.

sprblog.wordpress.com...

Here's yet another Rasmussen poll. At the end of this election cycle, we'll know which polls are the most accurate. And the least accurate ones can be truly "debunked."

Obama 46%, Romney 46%

When “leaners” are included, it’s Romney 48% and Obama 46%

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll in Politics Wednesday, September 26, 2012
www.rasmussenreports.com...

September 28, 2012 O 46%, R 46% (leaners included, O 47%, R 48%)

Daily Swing State Poll Update: September 28, 2012 O 46%, R 46% (leaners included, O 47%, R 48%)

Obama won these 11 swing states with 146 electoral votes in 2008. Here is the daily swing state poll results for this election cycle:


Release Date September 28, 2012
Obama/Romney/NET
46/46/Even

Release Date September 27, 2012
Obama/Romney/NET
46/46/Even


The exit polls for these 11 swing states in 2008 gave Obama a 7% margin of victory over John McCain, 53% vs. 46%. These numbers are identical to the national margin of victory for Obama in 2008.

Swing States: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin

Also, in article: 51% Disapprove of Job Obama is Doing in Swing States

Daily Swing State Tracking Poll in Politics
www.rasmussenreports.com...

Excerpt:
These results are derived from tracking poll data collected for the seven days ending September 27, 2012. The sample includes approximately 1,300 Likely Voters, and the margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Source:
www.rasmussenreports.com...

Originally posted by alternateuniverse
September 28, 2012 O 46%, R 46% (leaners included, O 47%, R 48%)

Daily Swing State Poll Update: September 28, 2012 O 46%, R 46% (leaners included, O 47%, R 48%)

Obama won these 11 swing states with 146 electoral votes in 2008. Here is the daily swing state poll results for this election cycle:


Release Date September 28, 2012
Obama/Romney/NET
46/46/Even

Release Date September 27, 2012
Obama/Romney/NET
46/46/Even


The exit polls for these 11 swing states in 2008 gave Obama a 7% margin of victory over John McCain, 53% vs. 46%. These numbers are identical to the national margin of victory for Obama in 2008.

Swing States: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin

Also, in article: 51% Disapprove of Job Obama is Doing in Swing States

Daily Swing State Tracking Poll in Politics
www.rasmussenreports.com...