posted on May, 11 2012 @ 09:07 PM
reply to post by TWISTEDWORDS
Now why don't we use this theory. Simple, Keynesian was backed with political members and Kondratiev was not. So, who is more correct?
Kondratiev or Keynesian. Kondratiev is always right as he realized economies have to do with people's emotions and sentiment.
So, in a nutshell what is going on now is the global economy is coming out of a long winter cycle and in 4 years it will be behind us and everyone
will forget again as we go into a spring business cycle. It has happened over and over again since the recordings of mankind.
Great, another ego to deal with. "You are all wrong, only I am correct."
I was taught the Kondratieff wave in relation to innovation. I.e. the economic cycles last every 50 years, so there are 50 years between every
economic peak. Each economic recovery/peak would be driven by a major technological innovation.
However, such a model fails to take into account the variables that can affect economic recovery, prosperity, recession or depression. Plus,
Kondratieff hardly had much evidence to base his findings on - modern economics have not been around that long and constantly change anyway.
On a larger scale, every empire that has ever existed has fallen. This is documented so many historical accounts it is virtually irrefutable, and also
analysed in works such as 'The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers' by Paul Kennedy.