The purpose of this document is to examine historic shtf scenarios and current trends to determine the most likely scenarios to occur. Of particular
interest to the author are the Bosnian Civil War and the Argentina economic collapse. These two modern day events follow patterns of a lot of
historic shtf scenarios but occur in a very modern setting(1990's) to modern people. With the way the economy is headed, something like the argentina
collapse is very likely to occur. To better prep, we should study these situations and see which preps would be appropriate for each.
ARGENTINA ECONOMIC COLLAPSE
The argentina economic collapse of 1992 follows trends similar to the russian economic collapse of 1998 and the german Economic
collapse. of noteworthy interest is these examples are both due to the gold standard being removed from currency and money being printed non stop.
This kind of collapse is very different from the glorified zombie apocalypse type as you actually have to study the business and economic aspects of
the collapse. The idea behind this kind of collapse is that basic commodities keep increasing in value at a rate that can't be kept up with by the
increase in salary. Soon all of your money goes to basics like rent and food and to even keep your belly full can be a struggle. Lines in super
markets are ridiculous and unemployment rises due to business collapsing. Crime and homelessness increase due to the unemployment and things just
generally go to hell. Of note in this type of collapse is that modern infrastructure such as hospitals and groceries are mostly working, they are
just ridiculously overworked and unaffordable
so to reiterate
1. country defaults, banks freeze assets for about a month
2 inflation occurs making money worth 1/5 of its original buying power
3.unemployment doubles very quickly, raising to 20-30%
4. grocery stores are still open but suffer from shortages
5. police/national guard are still around to stop looters and are very corrupt themselves
6. gold and foreign currencies become very valuable. in this case the american dollar was highly sought after.
On the day his country exploded, Santiago Bilinkis stayed at home and watched the riots on television with his wife and infant son. It was
painful. In Buenos Aires, one of the world’s great cities, looters were attacking grocery stores. Bilinkis’s bank account—along with every other
account in the country—had been frozen by executive decree three weeks earlier. Argentina was out of money.
This was December 20, 2001, a Thursday. That afternoon, several people were killed by police in front of the executive office building,
known as the Pink House, and President Fernando de la Rúa resigned and fled the capital in a helicopter. In the days that followed, Argentina would
cycle through four more presidents and default on debts totaling $155 billion. Unemployment would soar to 25 percent, and local governments, unable to
pay their workers, would simply invent and print their own currencies. It was the beginning of the worst financial crisis in Argentina’s
history—and by some estimations the worst peacetime financial crisis in the history of the world.
To get ready for this type of collapse, owning property and being able to rent it out goes a surprisingly long way. Property value
generally keeps up with inflation. Growing your own food and being able to defend yourself would be a very close second. NOT SPENDING ANY MONEY is
key, except on groceries and bills. No going to the bar, no going to eat out at all, no starbucks, no lawn service. Make it at home for 1/5th the
cost. Think "how could i survive on half my budget"?
Home invasions were apparently popular in Argentina as well as kidnapping. The police apparently were extremely overworked and also
very corrupt; so of no help to most people. Owning gold and multiple forms of currency also work extremely well for this kind of collapse. Keeping
about a months worth of currency on hand helps when the ATMs and banks are frozen. I must stress that this collapse is slow, unglorious and you are
NOT likely to be shooting people left and right
. While there might be riots, you can not shoot your self out of this kind of
collapse unless you take up a life style of constant robbing. Keeping a year or two worth of food is extremely smart... your ganna eat anyway right,
and inflation is always ongoing.
BOSNIAN CIVIL WAR
The second example is illustrated by the Bosnian Civil war; very straightforward, more of what we think of as a traditional SHTF.
Occurred in a first/second world country in 1991-1996; following traditional trends of war. The seiges, lack of food and resources,
artillery bombardment of civilian populated areas, and disease
are all very straight forward and have occured throughout history as a part of
war. Of note is that within cities crime exponentially increased due to lack of resources. This phenomena, while probably always historically
present, is now worse due to the new size of cities and the impersonalness and lack of community that is the by product of modern cities/ Modern
This scenario is probably the most likely for many people and countries, as civil war is a daily occurrence around the world. The
chaos of a civil war is in ways worse than a traditional war because of the lack of clarity between sides. Many people reading this are probably
american so not as use to the idea of civil war, but for many people around the world such things occur every decade. Both of my parents grew up in
countries that were strife full of civil war. My father has told me stories about having to board up all the windows in the house and having the
whole family all sitting in the living room for a week at a time, all of the family guns loaded and on the table as gunshots and screams rang
Preparation for this type of event would involve straightforward food/water, guns/ammo and medical supplies. Growing your own food
would be a close second to those first preps. The idea is to live until the situation stabalizes. Anywhere from a month to 5 years being likely.
Moving away from a city/not living in a city would also seem to be a very good idea. Owning a well fortified home with high walls and clear lines of
sight and having a group to exchange watch duties with is also up there. (home invasions can occur at any time but between 3a.m. to 4a.m. are very
likely) At first i believed gold would be worth stockpiling, but listening to Selco and other people who have gone through this, gold is nearly
worthless at the time compared to ammo food and medical supplies. Antibiotics!! Worth an arm and a leg.
edit on 15-4-2012 by Nephlim because:
(no reason given)
edit on 15-4-2012 by Nephlim because: (no reason given)