FAS Obtains 'Impacts of Severe Space Weather on the Electric Grid' Document blocked by DHS!

www.fas.org...

Public disclosure of the new JASON study was blocked by the Department of Homeland Security, which sponsored the analysis. But a copy was obtained by Secrecy News.

“Concerns about the vulnerabilities of technical infrastructure to space weather have been growing since the sun entered the early stages of the current sunspot cycle in 2009, increasing prospects for severe solar storms,” the report said.

“We agree that the U.S. electric grid remains vulnerable,” the JASONs concluded. “Mitigation should be undertaken as soon as possible to reduce the vulnerability of the U.S. grid. The cost appears modest compared to just the economic impact of a single storm,” they added.

But the panel declined to endorse a worst-case scenario proposed in 2010 by J. Kappenman (large pdf), who envisioned “the possibility of catastrophic damage to the U.S. electric grid, leaving millions without power for months to years.”

“We are not convinced that the worst case scenario… is plausible. Nor is the analysis it is based on, using proprietary algorithms, suitable for deciding national policy,” the JASON report said.

Instead, “a rigorous and fully transparent risk analysis should be done of the U.S. grid.” See “Impacts of Severe Space Weather on the Electric Grid,” JASON report JSR-11-320, November 2011.

The report itself is here:
www.fas.org...

It's a long but interesting read. Highly recommended.

“the possibility of catastrophic damage to the U.S. electric grid, leaving millions without power for months to years.”

let that sink in for a moment before collecting your thoughts.

the end of the world, as we once knew it.

Originally posted by yourmaker
let that sink in for a moment before collecting your thoughts.

But the panel declined to endorse a worst-case scenario proposed in 2010 by J. Kappenman...

How about this sinking in as well.

So we can either believe the report, and say that scenario will NOT happen, or we can dismiss the report in which case you shouldnt quote from it.

Hmm,


Yep all sunk in, me thinks we may be screwed....

I'd give anything for a real expert in this area of science to share what we CAN do as individuals. Granted, there is 0 we can do about the grid or the world outside our property lines if 1859 repeats an X-20 - X-48 (estimates vary) and just blows our little technological house down for a year or two..but what about our own households? Gasoline won't vanish...though most won't be able to do a thing with it.

How do we become one of those who CAN is what I want to know??

I've looked at Faraday Cage ideas and underground, to the extent a normal person in a normal home can think that direction..and I just can't get an answer as to whether all that work would even help?

Real specific here if we have someone who can help. How do I shield and protect just 3 things. Everything else is either immune because it isn't solid state or electronic in a true sense..or I'm willing to lose it. The three things are my Generator (5000kw, small model you see at Walmart or something), the electronic parts of my Blazer as it sits in my carport and my computer with monitors. The first two are obvious for why. The computer is where life can go on..with the gigs of guides, instructions and help we could all archive well in advance and save offline.

Any ideas?

Vacuum tube radios are resistant to this kind of environment. Maybe put your car in a metal building?

We are almost past the danger. The solar cycle is usually a very predictable 11 year cycle. This one was a little strange as it did not start on time. We will probably peak in 2012. There are aps and websites devoted to current space weather conditions with warnings and the whole bit.

NOAA Space Weather

Space Weather dot com

The grid IS the problem perhaps. Many basic utilities like water treatment systems have developed enough to be more efficient as stand-alone Point Of Use units that don't require connection to a grid. The problem is then those profitable public utilities lose their monthly grid fee from us dependents, among other "catastrophic" potentialities.

Thanks for posting the link TrueAmerican and denying ignorance with information.

What makes the 2012 solar storm/emissions from space so much worse....anybody ever read the story where the one Apollo Launch to go to the moon blew the outer layer of our atmosphere off the planet?

You ever get really hot at night and wonder where that heat came from? Or step on your floor to find it oddly warm when its in the middle of the night?

There are sources of microwave emitting things in space that are now playing a bigger role on Earth that we've broken down some of Earth's natural defenses for.

Things have happened already on Earth they don't want us knowing about. Start by finding out what emits microwaves at you inside our solar system when its night time.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000

The only one of your three things which would have any chance of being affected by an extremely severe geomagnetic storm is your computer. If you have a good surge protector you computer would not be affected.

A geomagnetic storm is not an EMP. It only affects long conductors like powerlines, pipelines, and phonelines (not fiber optics). The magnetic heaving produced by a geomagnetic storm can induce currents in these things, creating power surges.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


I read into this very subject last year.

The computer is the easiest- get an old unused, unplugged microwave, as it is made to not leak microwaves and leave your PC laptop in it! Desktops are too big, so you will have to buy a laptop. Best Faraday cage ever.

Get more spares of the car parts and put them in the microwave. And a book on how to replace them.
There is speculation that a car could survive an EM pulse of a solar flare as it is a basic Faraday cage.

You could build a Faraday cage around the generator. Google or Youtube it.

The Russians apparently have EMP protected all their military planes and vehicles, whereas the USA hasn't.
Peace

Originally posted by yourmaker

“the possibility of catastrophic damage to the U.S. electric grid, leaving millions without power for months to years.”

let that sink in for a moment before collecting your thoughts.

the end of the world, as we once knew it.

The worst part about losing the power grid: loss of power & cooling to spent fuel rods and core(s) at nuke plants.
Let that sink in too. Nowhere to run. Nowhere to hide.
But don't despair.
Happy Eternal Now!

reply to post by new_here

Not that much of a problem. Most use the steam generated by the reactor to run the cooling pumps. In case a shutdown becomes necessary the pumps can be run by auxiliary generators until cooled to safe levels.

At Fukushima the tsunami sort of messed things up when it tore through the plants, tearing the the diesel tanks up.

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by Wrabbit2000

 

A geomagnetic storm is not an EMP. It only affects long conductors like powerlines, pipelines, and phonelines (not fiber optics). The magnetic heaving produced by a geomagnetic storm can induce currents in these things, creating power surges.

You know, I've read your posts on this subject before and I am left with a gap between what I know has happened and what your background and experience say will happen. Old World Vs. New of course, and that makes all the difference, I'll bet. Here is where I'm a bit lost in the idea that even the massive X-20-48 flare range of 1859 would be largely without major world effect.

In that storm, the reports and documented examples were of telegraph systems, among other things, running with no power sources and no battery connected. Actually, running better without them than with outside power, by the reports of operators of the time. Additionally, reports of brush fires and other problems from electrical arc'ing off the telegraph wires are numerous from that period. So, it seems to suggest that the very air itself carried significant electrical charge. Am I misunderstanding that as being the effect, from reading what the obvious results were?

If that is the case with air being charged, how would that not quite literally put electrical charge into everything in that charged environment? From electrical lines..to the small contacts on a circuit board where suddenly both sides of a capacitor or a resistor are taking a charge, and this is happening to every component on the board at the same time? It's not the instant whammy of an E.M.P. blast, of course...but isn't days of this charged environment actually worse in ways?

@AriesJedi:

Thanks for the Microwave suggestion. At least a major solar event gives a couple days warning. Even the recorded fast movers gave enough time to prepare, given today's technology to see it from start to end. I may just use the suggestion for that though. It makes sense for shielding and used, non-working microwaves are things people usually PAY to have taken away...lol Obviously I don't need it working, just intact.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


Some laptops with Athom processors can work for about 10 hours with one charge (got a Samsung, not great processing power but excellent e-book reader!). All you need is a 50 watt solar panel to feed this laptop then you can have all your books I assume you already collected (one hours of sunshine = 10 hours of laptop , or you can try an e-ink reader, uses very small amount of energy) . Also , a LED bulb is a great idea, you can make a bit of light with 4-5 watts. Ah.. maybe a deep cycle 12 volt battery would also work brilliant. All caged and protected .

Originally posted by Phage
reply to post by new_here

 

Not that much of a problem. Most use the steam generated by the reactor to run the cooling pumps. In case a shutdown becomes necessary the pumps can be run by auxiliary generators until cooled to safe levels.

At Fukushima the tsunami sort of messed things up when it tore through the plants, tearing the the diesel tanks up.

Thanks, that's good to know about the cooling systems in most. In regards to a necessary shutdown, how long can generators be used? Would obtaining fuel to run them become an issue if the grid's fried for a lengthy spell?

reply to post by Wrabbit2000

Yes, you are misunderstanding. There is no charge in the air. The only reason the Carringon event was of note (other than the spectacular aurora which were witnessed) was because it was the first time that such long conductors (telegraph wires) existed. It was the first time the induced electrical effects occurred.

Note what you are talking about. Telegraph wires...long conductors. In a severe geomagnetic event the Earth's magnetic field wiggles around. When it wiggles across a long conductor it produces electricity in the conductor. It is exactly the same way an electric generator works.

It's explained in the report of the OP.

reply to post by new_here

That's a good question. I would hope that enough fuel is kept on site to support a complete and safe shutdown if necessary.

reply to post by Phage

I appreciate the clarifications. When I get back to the college library later this month, I'll get back to reading the direct contemporary accounts from the event. They have great archives for such things.... I could have sworn I'd read about more direct evidence from that and other things.... Hmm..

Well, you've at least given me a direction to go in for better understanding the effects. So much of the material currently online and presented as sourced and credible say the opposite for potential effects of the rare BIG geo storm..but it wouldn't be the first time media and the net had no correlation to anything factual. I need the research practice anyway.

Sun is pretty quiet today.

Solar report at ARRL