Could the 6.4 quake (9/9/11) in Vancouver be a foreshock to a mega quake?

reply to post by westcoast


"I was with a a prayer group while this occured."

who says its hard ,,
too find converts these days,,

Although we all haven't got your timing,,,,,,
,it's still nice too feel,, the afterglow of,,

wow,, he's really got his # together,, lets listen too him,,,

Weldone .

Could be there is no telling. I would
opt to say aftershocks will occure.
I do not think a mega quake is behind this.

@MRedfield

Just want to let you know there has never been a 10.0+ Earthquake and I don't think we'll ever get one unless we get a pole shift which only happens about every 250,000 years, 4 times every 1 million years or if an unexpected Brown Dwarf star comes which is close to impossible. We're expected to get a 9.0+ Earthquake, and 1-10 is the highest for the Richter scale. They only made it 1-10 because there was no point in going higher so I'm pretty sure 10 is impossible lol

reply to post by westcoast


There is no mega quake predicted for the USA throughout September.

Relax, take it easy.

reply to post by Rkoje18


As far as we know, there has never been one that strong on Earth, cause by the Earth itself. Indeed it has been shaken even harder than a 10.0 (12.0+ that we know of), but that was from an impact.

Still, it doesn't mean it cannot happen. We've had two 9.0+ quakes in the past six-seven years, and they say we're only supposed to have one every twenty years, if that.

There are aftershocks, lots of little ones as stated but I think they must be VERY small and are not registering since for the seismograms they are swamped by the 6.4 and in addition they are not big enough for the listings.

The following two versions of the sound file (FLAC and MP3) are at 110.25 times speed otherwise 4 hours of data (20:00 hrs to Midnight) would take far too long to play.

PB_B012_EHZ_20110909-200000_11025.mp3
PB_B012_EHZ_20110909-200000_11025.flac

reply to post by bluemirage5

There is no mega quake predicted for the USA throughout September.

Relax, take it easy.

The US Mega Quake prediction service monthly bulletin was it? Exactly what do you mean there was no mega quake predicted throughout September. Actually there is no mega quake predicted anywhere other than on You-Tube since geologists merely acknowledge that one could happen in various places but put very very vague times on these so you cannot call them predictions.

You will find many on the YT Disaster Prediction channels, oh and also the End Of The World channels and at a scary uninformed blog near you.

reply to post by PuterMan


Thanks Puterman, always love those sound bites. I agree that anything going on is too small to register or at this point, be recorded. I have been watching GEE for about 2 hrs now and the only thing I am seeing are very, very small blips harldy registering. The station is not that close to the epicenter though, so perhaps they are bigger than I think....although if they were, I would think that at least the Canadian site would list them. They seem to list all micro quakes too..while ofcourse USGS will only post quakes 3.5 or higher for Canada.

To those stating with certainty that we will NOT have another, larger quake....Wow, I wish I had your crystal ball.

At this point, I am NOT going to assume anything. Only time will tell, and I suspect that if this relative silence goes on much longer...we may get an alert.

Nothing posted yet for today for the deep tremors, I'll update with that when it comes in.

Check out the Spectographs for the area.....


And just a reminder to all what it is we are dealing with here, a visual:









SO if they are saying it came from the Juan De Fuca ridge vs the subduction zone...I don't know if that makes me feel any better.

reply to post by MRedfield

Still, it doesn't mean it cannot happen. We've had two 9.0+ quakes in the past six-seven years, and they say we're only supposed to have one every twenty years, if that.

Not strictly correct. Like buses they come in twos then you have to wait 30 or 40 years for the next one.

The cycle is roughly 40 to 50 years with two or three mag 9 in the time span of about 7 years spanning the peak.

As I have said many times it is my feeling that we have reached the peak and are now going down the long cycle to a quieter time in about 20 years that is the equivalent of the 1980s. Yes we may have a mag 8 and it may just reach mega status (8.5) but I don't think it will be this year. My feeling is next year and Philippines.

Of course I could be wrong

I have been watching the activity lately and I must admit that although it does not appear anomalous it does not appear entirely common either. There are a few 'rare' quakes we could discuss, and although they do have historical precedent it is somewhat odd to have them happen in a cluster in such a brief time frame. (Or maybe they always happen in clusters and we just don't know that much about it yet due to limitations of our understanding of the geological records).

That is one of the fun aspects of the topic, the seemingly random and unpredictable nature of plate tectonics.

And when the big ones happen, they almost always catch us by surprise.

I guess that is what attracts me to the subject, there are many mysteries that have not been solved yet.

So I am glad you folks are discussing this event, I always enjoy reading about it. Carry on, keep up the good work.

reply to post by westcoast


WC,

From the location of the quake ( east of the subduction fault ) I don't think its possible for it to have been from the ridge... it was located on the island, not offshore. That is either a subduction quake ( 35m depth I think i saw? ) or a separate faultline that has nothing to do with the subduction zone.

Danno

reply to post by PuterMan


What about the Mediterranean zone? Hasn't Turkey, Greece, Italy, etc been really quiet lately?

I have been having odd feelings every time I check the usgs maps that there it's seemingly too quiet in that region. Maybe there has been a lot of activity there recently but I have not reviewed the data yet so I could be wrong, that is possible.

If I am not wrong than perhaps we could consider this an area of interest?

Okay...finally seeing an after-shock. Like I said, the station isn't that close so it is hard to tell how big, but looks to be around a 2 mag or so.

Westcoast....thank you for this thread. I know you are a very factual and trustworthy person. Stay safe friend, and please keep us updated...I know you will. My thoughts are with you.

Originally posted by MoparDanno
reply to post by westcoast

 

WC,

From the location of the quake ( east of the subduction fault ) I don't think its possible for it to have been from the ridge... it was located on the island, not offshore. That is either a subduction quake ( 35m depth I think i saw? ) or a separate faultline that has nothing to do with the subduction zone.

Danno

I agree. For a quake of that size and depth.....I really think it is from the subduction zone. Before anyone criticizes me for questioning what seems to be a professional quoted in the previous article; let me remind you that they keep changing the location of the subduction zone. Most of it is educated guesses.

hmm i feel something bad is going to happen tonight or tomorrow..

There is this thread about usgs and that huge quake on the map and it was listed for tomorrow
www.abovetopsecret.com...

I found this video off youtube about why a quake can happen tomorrow and there is alert for it but not a warning

Originally posted by westcoast

I agree. For a quake of that size and depth.....I really think it is from the subduction zone. Before anyone criticizes me for questioning what seems to be a professional quoted in the previous article; let me remind you that they keep changing the location of the subduction zone. Most of it is educated guesses.

From looking at where it occured

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Depth of 23km

And using your favorite tremor monitoring site with the plate depth checked...

www.pnsn.org...

We see that it easily falls within the depth and location of the subduction zone. So I am not so sure I'd throw out the thought that its a subduction zone eq....

Danno

Ugh....still nothing listed. SO, all we know is that the quake I saw (and another, smaller one now) are both below the 3.5 range (otherwise it would be on USGS site) and the canadian site...well, I guess they went home for the day???


Here is a local news article about the quake. It concerned officialls enough that they sent out state inspectors to various structures along the coast. No damage reported.

Seattle shakes, but no damage after 6.4 earthquake hits vancouver island

The Washington Transportation Department dispatched inspectors as a precaution to check for damage to the Alaskan Way Viaduct, as well as the Deception Pass Bridge and the Highway 520 floating bridge across Lake Washington. None was found.

Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railroad spokesman Gus Melonas said railroad tracks from Everett to Vancouver have been lowered to a 20 mph speed limit for all trains, and seven trains are currently halted while inspections are carried out on bridges.

reply to post by westcoast


even subduction zones are guesses as there is no proof for them, only theories.

I thought the historic seismicity - Mag 7+ since 1900 - was interesting.

reply to post by muzzleflash


285 quakes in Italy, Greece and Turkey in the last 7 days. In fact I was rather surprised to see your comment as I have been watching Italy rolling past all day.

The split on that is Greece 99, Italy 75 and Turkey 111.