Something i heard in work today! UK related.

reply to post by DieBravely

You sound like you've got some real knowledge there, PuterMan.

I thank you but unfortunately I really cannot say that is the case. I am an interested amateur and can no more predict the weather than the British Met Office.

What I am saying is that in watching the weather we see what we call the jetstream 'blocking' our weather in winter - and to a degree in summer latterly. Actually the term is wrong because what is blocking our weather - the passage of warm wet air across the Atlantic - is actually the polar air mass of which the jetstream is the result at the boundaries. It is the marker of where the air mass currently lies.

In summer as we tilt towards the sun in the Northern hemisphere the polar air mass reduces and the jetstream moves North. The opposite happens in the winter and the jetstream moves south thus exposing the areas North of it to the polar air. That is perhaps a simplistic view as the darn thing snakes about all over the place!

For my own convenience I have listed the links to various pressure and jetstream maps that I collect on this page so if you are interested you can see / collect them from there.

You may also find this page of interest: NOAA - The jetstream

The real crux of the matter is what actually causes the polar air mass to move down. Obviously it is because it gets colder firstly, but then you have to ask what affects this? I believe that it may be the sun, and this has been suggested recently by scientists.

These winds are normally stopped by the jet stream but scientists have found that this bends at times of low solar activity allowing the cold air through. The connection between the jet stream bending and solar activity is not fully understood.

Source: The Daily Mail

The article is not a bad explanation in simple terms of what might be happening at present.

So how is this related to sun spots? Well sunspots are an indicator of the activity of the sun and of the wattage (heat/power) we receive per square metre. Less output from the sun means a lower wattage and although it is only a small difference it does appear to have an effect.

The current solar max is having a job getting going and for only a year away from the supposed solar max the sunspot count is very low. Spaceweather.com counts every little freckle as a sunspot and still peddles out the NASA figures (well it is run by a NASA scientist) and continually ignores the criteria established to count sun spots counting many that do not qualify in terms of duration and darkness.

But fear not. NASA has come to the rescue.

The current solar minimum has been so long and deep, it prompted some scientists to speculate that the sun might enter a long period with no sunspot activity at all, akin to the Maunder Minimum of the 17th century. This new result dispells those concerns. The sun's internal magnetic dynamo is still operating, and the sunspot cycle is not "broken."

Source: Mystery of the Missing Sunspots, Solved?

Unfortunately it dispells them only for the adherents to the NASA religion. As I exhorted earlier the examination of Landscheidt is an essential. To get a different view of the sunspot count go here "Laymans sunspot count".

Further if you want to get your head into sun cycles and how they affect us you could do worse than look at Landscheidt Cycles Research

It definitely appears to me that the sun has an influence on the jetstream/polar air mass and upon the council decision to buy salt!! Maybe they have started reading Landscheidt?

Our warmist brethren will tell us that the planet is warming, which overall it may be very slightly, and that the Arctic ice will melt any minute now and the Arctic sea will be ice free. Now theoretically if this were to happen the polar air mass would not be as cold and the jetstream would remain further north even in the winter leading to milder winters. As we are only too well aware this has not been the case recently.

I am not wanting to get into a climate change debate here, just to say that many things affect climate and in my honest opinion CO2 is one of the least likely.

So, um where was I. Oh yes. No I am not an expert and to not have a vast store of knowledge. I just look at the weather charts and look at the jetstream and see that it is below us and causing brass monkey weather. If the Landscheidt cycles research is right then we will have colder winters for the next 20 years or so and they will not be accompanied overall by warmer summers. (There are always extremes. This does not preclude these.)

Essan said that the climate models predicted that warming would cause colder weather. Unfortunately as far as I can tell from looking into this the models were tweaked after the event to show this. There was no mention of this before the cold arrived.

I don't trust computer models. I am a programmer.

it hasn't snowed in the uk since the 90's, and don't lie you know this is true and what I mean by this. (ie not literally but close enough.)

and they always have enough salt, they just want to scrimp the budget yet more, and with cameron at the helm, well, shoot me now =) i don't imagine driving my car easily this winter.

reply to post by starchild10


Ah so living in a rural area that is mostly hills is not sparing a thought for those who live in outlying areas (what the heck is an outlying area?)

See you know anything about me to paint such a black and heartless picture

For what it is worth and I guess in your blinkered case nothing.. I spent a lot of my time (aside for sledging and snow ball fights with the kids) shovelling my elderly neighbours paths (along with about 20 other blokes) and ensuring they had enough food and fuel to heat their homes. (given how the profiteers doubled the cost of oil was not easy.. the commons where raided for wood :lol

I guess you.. being such a saint and pointing out my heartless cruel and evil fun put my efforts to shame..

and to be clear... like most of my neighbours I lost wages.. Most of whom like myself can not afford such a loss.. but the connection with my community (the young and the old alike) is actually priceless and so was the fun we had with the kids...

so *raspberry* to you and bah humbugs to all spoilsports... Well I am off out to have more evil fun

Well now...

The salt problem came from two things;

- several years of mild winters before the last two meant that authorities had cut back their stock.
- when the weather picked up demand outstripped supply. Both Salt union and Cleveland Potash - the two largest UK salt suppliers - could not get materials out quick enough.

At one point last winter - during the snows in December both companies were warning that if the bad weather continued through January and February that they would not be able to restock supply fast enough, or indeed have supplies ready for this winter. Fortunately in relative terms January and February were mild, and this took pressure off.

In the past two bad years the government has run whats called a Salt Cell, which attempts to distribute salt to the authorities who need it first in an informal agreement with the suppliers and other local authorities who may have excess stocks.

Most Local Authorities have boosted their stock - the one I work for is now running at over 40,000 tonnes.

Simple fact is though, that salt isn't the be all and end all of it. As noted above, deep snow needs ploughing then gritting to prevent freeze overs , and drivers need to take responsible actions.

As someone previously said unfortunately the UK does not have enough days of this type of weather to spend the money on the infrastructure.

Most councils went through a phase of putting speed humps down lots of residential roads, which makes the situation worse as this means a snow plough cannot be used. I understand you have to clear the roads and then grit and salt.

For the last couple of years I have found the reporting very frustrating. The met office issued weather warnings advising to avoid travelling due to heavy snow only for the snow to never fall or just be a light dusting! Many people rely on these reports to decide if they can travel. People got criticised for not going into work and following these recommendations - such as schools - when the weather did not perform as predicted. Yet if people do travel ignoring the warnings and they turn out to be accurate it causes chaos.

I will prepare for this winter by making sure we have stuff in the cars - blankets etc and are well stocked home just in case. I don't think the winters are getting colder - I remember lots of snow when I was a kid. It has only just been recently that we have had more than a day of snow whereas for decades we have had dustings and a day at the most.

Perhaps you should have made it clear you where elderly and could not fend for yourself and then perhaps other posters wouldnt have told you to fit your car in a safe manner for the winter conditions.

Operating a car costs, that also involves costs making it road worthy for safe driving in the appropriate weather conditions. You can perhaps use your free pensioners bus pass.

Maybe cars are not for you in Winter, I suggest using public transport, a good set of winter boots and warm clothing and your feet.

I suggest using public transport.

i wouldn't, ever seen a bus go backwards in 1st gear?

ed: if anyone believes there is a lack of salt please allow me to dispell the fact with science.

*long breath*

sea water.

Originally posted by whatsinaname

I suggest using public transport.

i wouldn't, ever seen a bus go backwards in 1st gear?

ed: if anyone believes there is a lack of salt please allow me to dispell the fact with science.

*long breath*

sea water.

edit on 28/8/2011 by whatsinaname because: (no reason given)

Only badly operated public transport yes.

My friend, I'm not elderly

*unintended double post*

I see, my appologies, so, you are just "dependant" on others to get by in life.

Originally posted by Elefant




I see, my appologies, so, you are just "dependant" on others to get by in life.

No, I just don't see why I should be paying council tax if the council isn't going to use the money properly.

if anything we should take top gear as a perfect example, they managed to reach the north pole in a hylux pick up truck, with nothing but a shovel or two and rum to keep them warm at one point, which point I do not suggest but warmth yes, keep your vehicle in working condition and don't try to pass a roundabout at 50 in the snow, its really not as dangerous as people make it out to be unless your driving like an idiot, and as long as your not in said idiots line of 60 mph car trajectory.

Once you try fitting your car correctly for winter, you will be driving about pointing and laughing at the other drivers who didnt.

Seriously, try it, just once. You won't look back.

It is easy, it is not expensive, it just takes a little education and practice.

Trolley jack, cheap in a Halfords / Argos etc (for quick changing wheels) 40 GBP maybe?
4 or 5 steel rims , about 10 GBP each or so.

Why do you go cheap on tyres? They are the ONLY thing holding you on the road, that I do not understand, your tyres are what keep you ON to the road.

You get more than one winter out of winter tyres, you wont be getting spiked ones, but you can get a winter tyre none the less that will help you greatly.

You change your WHEELs not the tyre. it takes perhaps 20 minutes to change all 4.

PS. Do not mix tyre compound types.



You know Winter is comming, are you preparing now? Or waiting until the last minute?

Originally posted by Swanfilters

I pay council tax, I expect the council to use it on salt. I should not have to go out and buy a set of snow tyres, nor will I, because I pay council tax, and they will fix the roads. Simple.

However, if there is heavy snow and/or very low temps, salt will not make any difference. As we saw last December.

And councils spend your taxes on other things as well Plus, I pay council tax. Why should I pay more so they can but loads more salt and snowploughs when I don't have a car so snow and ice doesn't directly affect me?

reply to post by Essan


Very true Essan

Less than 0.1% of what people pay in their Council tax gets put back into roads.

On top of that most Local Authorities have had their budgets cut between 30-50% due to the Comprehensive Spending review bought about by 13 years of Labours overspending and the financial crisis.

Its amazing what people don't seem to know and just assume instead.

One thing that winds me up about the UK though, is the last 2 winters the so called "experts" have been telling us that our winers wont be bad, but have ultimately turned out to be really bad, breaking records and everything, and this leaves people unprepared because your average joe and elderly people rely on people like the met office to get it right, or near as possible.
Going by the last two/three years, and the fact we have had another very dull summer, i'm expecting us to have another bad winter, quite a few long range experts who have got it spot on the last couple of years have also said we are in for another bad winter, but it's these people who dont get heard, instead, no doubt the met office will say we are in for a mild, barbecue winter and we'll be snowed in with -20 conditions!
The met office are useless.

I appreciate the knowledge of people like puterman, i swear some people on these forums are more intelligent than the people on our news that get paid stupid amounts.

Just found this:

Motorists advised to prepare for another bad winter

A specialist long-range forecaster has warned of yet another severe Winter in the UK.

He correctly predicted the harsh conditions experienced over the last two years and the news has prompted tyre stockists like ATS Euromaster to introduce a system of pre-ordering cold weather tyres.

Source