Govt shutting down is a ruse to keep the US from defaulting next week

They will stop paying veterans benefits, stop paying active duty military, stop paying out tax returns and then strong arm the American people into agreeing to raise the debt ceiling.

I can hear it now "but what about the troops" etc etc.

We will fold. The people will lay down and accept it. We always do. They just have to spin their little drama first like they did with the bailouts.

Then next week they will be sending Israel another $50 billion and building a new bullet train to nowhere.

Mark my words.

Of course they have to buy the bonds back, no way they would let the free market system raise yields.
Imagine what kind of signal that would send to the world markets if they raised the interest on bonds to attract foreign investors. It might signal a slowdown and oil prices might collapse!

reply to post by BlackOps719


Probably closer to the truth than you think market-ticker.org...

there HAS to be a dirty scheme behind it

there is NO NEED for a shut down:

Overblown budget?
then STOP ALL THESE BLOODY WARS!!!!!!

Now this is confirmed, the US government shutdowns in a few hours.

IMO till they pass a ceiling debt raise otherwise the US defaults in two weeks.

Treasury Closed Thursday With $34.9 Billion In Cash, Friday Likely $12 Billion Lower

And since Friday is always a heavy refund issuance day, it is probably safe to say that Treasury cash is now down in the lower $20 billion. Although we probably won't know: if the FMS is shutdown on Monday there will be no DTS debt report. Why is this important? Because in 8 hours this may be the snapshot cash for the US Treasury for a long time, or as long as it takes for the two parties to find a resolution over the glaring hole that is 0.001% of the budget deficit. Luckily, auctions will continue... For so long as the formal debt ceiling is finally breached, in a few weeks. Good luck with that negotiation.

And in non soap opera news, the total treasury buffers as of yesterday was $82 billion. Next week there is $66 billion in new debt issued and $19.2 billion in debt maturing, with $46.8 billion in net capacity taken out from the buffer, meaning after next week the Treasury will have $35 billion in total capacity left under the subject debt (even as the total debt is well over the actual ceiling), or just one 5 Year auction.

Won't be long now before they start ``borrowing`` money from the pensions funds... IMO they'll do just that... so people panic and ask congress to raise the debt ceiling.... and then they'll say how they avoided a big crisis...

Ridiculous. This is way too predictable.

Or eh, the US defaults and it's blood in the streets not long after. Whatever.

^ I hope you're not right, but your post is too logical.

A redditor today made a interesting observation about the shutdown, and I think it's very accurate:

The US budget is like a 1st grader playing Oregon Trail. Spend all the money on ammunition so you can shoot at stuff, then wonder why your wagon is falling apart and everyone is dying of dysentery.

Originally posted by Vitchilo
What is probably gonna happen is...

They shutdown the government. Then people cry. Then they pass a ``compromise bill`` of a worthless 40-50 billion $ cut... with a debt ceiling increase provision hidden in it... then business as usual till the debt ceiling is reached again... probably early next year.

Then repeat. Till the bond market say ENOUGH.

edit on 6-4-2011 by Vitchilo because: (no reason given)

We also have pressures from Japan on the bond market, as of yet realized, but certainly a real concern. I'm not sure we'll make it to next year like this but for the grace of God.

As I've been saying, buy food, buy ammo.

reply to post by BlackOps719


Quit being so negative.Our government folded in the 90's They should have folded under Bush aslo.
While we need our government in certain areas, domestically is the least, with troops in harms way.
Why isn't GITMO closed, Iraq or Afghanistan? I think the democrats under estimated the resolve of a few of them.

Well, looks like they reached a deal, no shut down. It's like professional wrestling, that was a staged fight. Now they can sit back, and watch the population go at each others throats over abortion. People must have been too close for comfort to uniting against the 2 party sham. Needed to hit the hot button issue to keep us all divided, so they can keep doing what they do while we're distracted.

Seems ``at the last minute`` they've reached a deal.

We shall see if it stay closed or not.

If it's not closed... that means that the IRS payouts are gonna be done next week... MEANING THE US WILL REACH THE DEBT CEILING NEXT WEEK...

So unless they've hidden some kind of debt ceiling raise in that new ``deal``... pension funds are gonna be used to fund the government... if they can't pull that off, the US defaults.

Originally posted by Vitchilo
Seems ``at the last minute`` they've reached a deal.

We shall see if it stay closed or not.

If it's not closed... that means that the IRS payouts are gonna be done next week... MEANING THE US WILL REACH THE DEBT CEILING NEXT WEEK...

So unless they've hidden some kind of debt ceiling raise in that new ``deal``... pension funds are gonna be used to fund the government... if they can't pull that off, the US defaults.

Ya know,they probably didn´t really reach an Agreement on this "Historic Cuts" (what a Joke..) but they voted if the US should Default next Week or the Week after

reply to post by Shenon

Ya know,they probably didn´t really reach an Agreement on this "Historic Cuts" (what a Joke..) but they voted if the US should Default next Week or the Week after

Hopefully they said yes.

Anyway the whole thing comes down to this :

No government shutdown = IRS tax returns being paid = US reaching debt ceiling next week

And.. still no bill to increase it. So the pensions funds are gonna get it. And if something like... THE SUPREME COURT says they can't do it... DEFAULT!

Originally posted by Vitchilo
reply to post by Shenon

 

Ya know,they probably didn´t really reach an Agreement on this "Historic Cuts" (what a Joke..) but they voted if the US should Default next Week or the Week after

Hopefully they said yes.

Anyway the whole thing comes down to this :

No government shutdown = IRS tax returns being paid = US reaching debt ceiling next week

And.. still no bill to increase it. So the pensions funds are gonna get it. And if something like... THE SUPREME COURT says they can't do it... DEFAULT!

And what happens if the US Defaults? Wanna know if i have to stock up more if a Default means the Worlds Economy crashes...

If the US defaults, it's Greece all over again. Default = interest on debt skyrocketing overnight, leading to the US needs to raise taxes and cut ``real spending`` and use that money to pay interest on the debt... leading to GDP crash of at least 10-15% in the first year alone.

I would expect riots, rise in crime, maybe even political assassinations.

The Government Shutdown Battle Is Over; Now The Real Soap Opera Ratings War Begins

The Only Two Charts That Matter For The US, And A Q&A On The Fiscal "Debate" From Goldman Sachs

Putting It All In Perspective: Bernanke Does More For The Budget In 15 Minutes Than The Government Does In A Year

Originally posted by backinblack
reply to post by Vitchilo

 

I'd bet that regardless of what happens. every dirty, corrupt politician will still receive their pay and expenses on time and inflated as usual..

I do believe I heard them say on one of the media outlets that congress will still receive their paychecks on time and in full. Personally, I think congress should take a major cut. These idiots do nothing that is worth the pay and benefits they receive.

Is The Budget Deal On The Verge Of Collapsing?

Something rather troubling for the "kick the bankrupt (and only modestly radioactive, still way below the unrevised legal threshold though) can down the street crowd"- Commentary Magazine reports that the "Budget Deal", won after so much theatrics, soap opera, and Razzie nominations, may in fact collapse shortly. "The big news today is that the $38.5 billion in budget cuts announced with such fanfare on Friday night mostly aren’t real. A good deal of it involves money from previous years and previous budgets that hasn’t actually been spent." Commentary refers to an AP article in which it is made clear that the proposed legislation is one 'financed with a lot of one-time savings and cuts that officially "score" as savings to pay for spending elsewhere, but that often have little to no actual impact on the deficit...cuts to earmarks, unspent census money, leftover federal construction funding, and $2.5 billion from the most recent renewal of highway programs that can't be spent because of restrictions set by other legislation. Another $3.5 billion comes from unused spending authority from a program providing health care to children of lower-income families." And once the more vocal fringers realize they have been cheated once again by both parties, it is possible that the whole thing could just as easily fall apart, and just in time for the US debt ceiling to be breached within 1-2 weeks tops.

Wouldn't that be nice?

reply to post by Vitchilo


But, all we have to do to avoid default, is to say we can borrow and spend more...again, lol. I wish it worked that way for us little guys, my bank account is about to be maxed out...I'll just raise my debt ceiling, there...all better.

reply to post by 27jd


Well I'm tired of this scam. The sooner it's over, the less painful it will be.

Republicans may push US debt talks to 11th hour

* Republicans see July, not May, as deadline to act

* Republicans say will act before default happens

* U.S. Treasury warns against missing May deadline

* Obama's deficit speech at 1:30 p.m. (1730 GMT) Wednesday (Adds Boehner, Durbin)

By Andy Sullivan

WASHINGTON, April 12 (Reuters) - Republican leaders in Congress said on Tuesday they may stretch out negotiations on raising the U.S. debt limit until July, when Washington will be close to defaulting on its obligations.

JULY! That's INSANE. The US could very well default then...

Treasury Sells $21 Billion in Ten Year Bonds As Indirect Interest Drops

More importantly, with this $21 billion and yesterday's $32 billion, US debt is now $53 billion higher than the unsettled total disclosed yesterday of $14.268, or $14.321. This is far above the debt limit. It also means that the debt actually subject to the limit is now $14.269 billion, or $25 billion below the ceiling. And keep in mind there is another $13 billion in 30 Years to be auctioned off tomorrow (granted offset by $19.2) billion in maturities. Will the Treasury last through July without a debt ceiling increase at a rate of issuing $125 billion in net debt per month? Not a chance in hell.

Default seems more and more likely...

The congressional budget office estimate shows that the spending bill due for a House vote Thursday would pare just $352 million from the deficit through Sept. 30. About $8 billion in cuts to domestic programs and foreign aid are offset by nearly equal increases in defense spending.
352 million in real cuts! HAHAAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

And don't get me started on Obama's budget plan. It's as ridiculous as the republican plan.