Geologists are Warning of a Mega Eruption of Merapi

most likely just viral advertising for world of warcraft: cataclysm

but in all seriousness, dodgy as! Is there plans in place for the people of the region to survive this?

The crucial question is ;- can that much magma build up without a consequent eruption becoming inevitable? If the answer is 'no' then things could get biblical. This isn't a polarized debate with conflicting evidence, it is all bad.
Sorry to seem like a doom-monger, but that is excatly what this looks like.

Just look how big this is already.
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/72bb2347a68c.jpg[/atsimg] [atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/6e5e1d98bbef.jpg[/atsimg]
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/51efb8488885.jpg[/atsimg]
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/e589742b171f.jpg[/atsimg]

Imagine it does act the way the OP article speculates it might.

reply to post by Kratos40


No...a large event with enough material in the atmosphere will not only block sunlight but also reflects it, also..the earth is covered mostly in water that acts as a heat sink...basically..you are looking at a nuclear winter caused by a natural force..same situation....and..the heating effect is exponential, if an event like that happens...things wont last long...you are looking at crop failures, war, pestilence..remeber...the Sun does alot more than just give light and heat...and, as others have said...look at History..Im not flaming you in the least..just educating. Also..St. Helens ash output was something like 1/1000000 of Yellowstone. We had dust in the Midwest from that when it blew..Imagine if you will something a Million times larger...it would possibly be an extinction level event, same difference if an asteroid hit us, or nuclear war etc. Somebody correct me on the magnitude or if i am thinking of Toba...anyway...lets hope that doesnt happen

reply to post by cosmicpixie


At least it's not Lake Toba, because that would be really really bad. And that would make Krakatoa
look like a Pimple Popping.

Found this image via twitter and wanted to share, this is claimed to be take from 100km's away, put the thing into perspective doesn't it...





Link to some more pictures here.

It just erupted again....so does that mean that the "HUGE" eruption predicted wont happen?

Professor Menke, Columbia University:

‘Its fine to worry and to be prudent to prepare for the worst. But we have no idea whether this eruption will fizzle out or escalate to a truly large one. The odds are that it will fizzle.’ In response to our question as to whether Mt. Merapi could be the next Tambora, Menke stated: I would say that all arc volcanoes have the potential for a 1816 Mt. Tambora eruption, or at least as far as we know. When you look at the layers of tephra preserved in the geological record around arc volcanoes, you find ample evidence for big eruptions in the geological past, though the most recent for a given volcano may have been ten thousand years in the past. There no reason to think that Mr. Merapi is any different. But neither do we have any reason to think that Mt. Merapi is in any sense ‘due for a big one’.

deathby1000papercuts.com...

So ok, we can worry because it's an arc volcano which has high explosivity potential, but when it comes down to it, no one can 100% be sure if it will be a world effecting eruption. We'll just have to watch and wait and hope it fizzles out.

It will fizzle out. Major eruption occur thousands if not millions of years apart. So the odds of seeing one in our life time or our childrens, or even grandchildrens lifetime is slim to none. We have never seen a major eruption. We can't predict one will occur, because we do not understand them enough to see the signs. But if you want to play the odds, odds are not in favor of a major eruption. I wouldn't doubt major eruptions spew ash like this volcano for a few thousand years before blowing its top. So even if it is the start of a major eruption, it won't blow for a very long time. I really can't see them being a sudden event, its too much energy to be released that fast.

darn it possible one of the biggest eruptions to date and theres not a live cam viewing it. Whats the point in technology if people arent going to use it. Seriously news about this eruption is minimal at best.

To clarify:

The effects of eruptions based on their scale.
Each degree ejects 10 times more lava/ash than the previous:

VEI1: Fimmvorduhals (first Icelandic eruption in March 2010)
VEI4: Eyjafjallajökull
VEI5: Normal Katla, St Helens eruption
VEI5/6 boundary: Pinatubo in 1991
VEI6: Laki 1783, Krakatoa
VEI7: Tambora
VEI8: Yellowstone

Almost every year there are VEI4 eruptions (no climate impact).
Every 10 years or so a VEI5 (minimal or small climate impact)
A VEI6 it's about 1 per 50-100 years (moderate climate impact)
VEI7 once per 1000 or more years (severe climate impact, but short-term)

Merapi could be well a VEI5 or even VEI6.

reply to post by loner007


That's because I don't think its' that serious. Volcanos erupt all the time. It's devastating to the area in which the volcano is in. It's sad, and I feel bad for anyone caught in it. But to make the world news, as a potential climate changer, and armageddon..... please.... They aren't going to worry people. The only time the people will find out if something is really that serious, is when it happens. There won't be any warning.

Originally posted by guavas
Why is Obama going there again?

I like your thinking.

Our Prime Minister Gillard just went there too.

Well at least it ain't Yellowstone.

reply to post by Darkeligos


What does that mean?

this one is a bit close to home....

The first thing I thought when I clicked this thread?

I hope the locals are aware.

I am not sure how much information the Indonesians are getting on their local news but sheesh... I hope the people are given a chance... If this place blows, the country is going to be severely affected. I am ready to donate money when the time comes. I hope everyone else is too.

reply to post by SerialLurker


I don't think money will solve the problem. We need to reconsider everything we believe in.

How is it even possible with such a technology existing on this planet people still to stay unaware of incoming disasters? Can you even imagine this?!


Guys, it's getting really serious and is time to wake up. We live in a very wrong system and we have everything we need to change this fact. We just have to realize it!

reply to post by ElevenFlint


Very true, Money is a useless man-made idea. We don't even need it. Of course, I'm sure someone will pop off about how what i said is communist, but whatever. I stand by the statement. We don't need money at all.

The Indonesians are probably getting more accurate and up to date news than anyone here on ATS, they don't live in caves and there will be more than enough warning, but then again the volcano already erupted! this isn't new. Indonesians communicate verbally as well, just like the rest of the world, and there is no conspiracy to cull there population.