Quake Watch 2010

Clear Water Geysers

I am still 'massaging' the data and creating hockey sticks, and cutting out years and rejoining the graphs to show that the earthquakes in this area are the main contributor to anthropogenic nocturnal motion. (ANM) (You thought it was something else?)

Anyway I have processed all 167,000+ quakes into years and calculated energy values and I am now trying to determine where to start the graphs.

As a preliminary look here are the numbers:

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/b32ddcedc80d.png[/atsimg]

Now follow some extremely small sample shots. I shall be creating a PDF file of the final versions.

Numbers Of Quakes Graph
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/e3f25f082b0f.png[/atsimg]

Energy Release Graph
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/e3a2217b1825.png[/atsimg]

A potentially interesting one - The average energy release per quake in each band by year.
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/ac1cf649486f.png[/atsimg]

Finally Total Energy and Numbers per year (note the poly trend is skewed by the partial 2010 at present)
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/cf3aef6cb2ef.png[/atsimg]

I am thinking of ditching 1970 to 1979 from the data as it does not appear to be relevant. This was why I wanted stations available so I could determine which years they were on line. Unfortunately it appears that the bulk of this data comes from the NC network and I am unable to determine the number of recorders of when they became operational, and they do not provide live data either. The network was started in 1967 but it is fairly obvious that it was not fully operational until the 1980s.

12 solid hours work so far and maybe to further 12 to finalisation. You will just have to wait!

reply to post by PuterMan


Holy smokes Puterman That's alot of work. My apologies. That is an aweful lot of quakes too. I need to process this in my brain. I wonder what was going on around 2005/2006.

2.9 2010/08/14 14:39:12 43.669 -110.521 5.0 26 km ( 16 mi) ENE of Teton Village, WY

5.9 2010/08/14 14:44:37 12.264 141.434 42.0 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION

[edit on 14-8-2010 by Anmarie96]

reply to post by Anmarie96


No problem - quite enjoying it actually.

Just thought I would let you all have this one to be going on with. This is the depth of quakes by band for 2010. The 0 to 1.99 mag seem to be the deepest.



Edit Sorry this seems a bit fuzzy now I see it on screen.

[edit on 14/8/2010 by PuterMan]

reply to post by PuterMan


Great work, you are an inspiration

I like your depth plots too, I've had a go at that myself, to show a cross section of the Kermadec Ridge/Trench or Hikurangi Trough, but just couldn't get the plots to correspond with the km across the line.

I wonder how those quakes correspond with the commission and de-commission of various stations there?
now theres a project for anmarie

www.geysers.com...

[edit on 14-8-2010 by muzzy]

Clear Water Geysers Earthquake Analysis

The high change in the number of very small quakes is interesting. Unfortunately without access to seismo data on line it is not possible to say what this could be caused by. This is a volcanic area and has a steam reservoir.

Here is the link to the PDF file I have created. I can't honestly say that it reaches any earth shattering conclusions, but you might find it interesting and there are some links at the end that should keep you busy for a while. If you find anything significant or interesting please do let me know.

The PDF file is also here as is the xlsx file (MS Excel 2007) of the data and graphs, but be warned it is just under 10 Mb.

Edit Just a note to say that ALL the earthquakes from 1970 to the projected end of 2010, some 172,802 quakes, only have the combined energy value of a 5.56 Magnitude earthquake.

[edit on 14/8/2010 by PuterMan]

Magnitude 6.6
Date-Time Saturday, August 14, 2010 at 23:01:06 UTC
Sunday, August 15, 2010 at 09:01:06 AM at epicenter

Location 12.200°N, 141.600°E
Depth 100 km (62.1 miles) set by location program
Region MARIANA ISLANDS REGION
Distances 369 km (230 miles) WSW (248°) from HAGATNA, Guam
482 km (299 miles) NE (51°) from Yap, Micronesia
1641 km (1020 miles) N (3°) from Jayapura, Irian Jaya, Indonesia

Location Uncertainty Error estimate not available
Parameters NST= 54, Nph= 54, Dmin=405.7 km, Rmss=1.18 sec, Gp= 32°,
M-type="moment" magnitude from initial P wave (tsuboi method) (Mi/Mwp), Version=1
Source West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center/NOAA/NWS

Event ID at00182687

earthquake.usgs.gov...


[edit on 14-8-2010 by Austria]

I see the USGS has downgraded that Marianas 7.2 to 6.9Mw
The Russians are sticking to 7.1Ms, Europeans to 7.2Mw and Aussies 7.1 Unk
respectively.
So it stays on the 7+list ......for now.

18 aftershocks as of 15/08/2010 02:41 UTC

Mag, Date Time UTC, Lat, Long, Depthkm, Source:USGS
6.9, 13/08/2010 21:19:33.0, 12.503, 141.474, 10
4.8, 13/08/2010 22:08:42.0, 12.461, 141.758, 10
4.6, 14/08/2010 03:16:44.0, 12.133, 141.422, 10
4.7, 14/08/2010 06:19:05.0, 12.298, 141.558, 10
6.3, 14/08/2010 07:30:17.0, 12.328, 141.473, 9.7
5.2, 14/08/2010 07:49:00.0, 12.491, 141.566, 10
5, 14/08/2010 08:20:57.0, 12.357, 141.636, 10.1
4.7, 14/08/2010 10:26:44.0, 12.486, 141.767, 10
5.9, 14/08/2010 14:44:37.0, 12.264, 141.434, 42
4.9, 14/08/2010 15:24:04.0, 12.224, 141.473, 10
5, 14/08/2010 16:12:40.0, 12.188, 141.5, 10
5.7, 14/08/2010 16:35:44.0, 12.297, 141.57, 10
4.8, 14/08/2010 17:44:05.0, 12.233, 141.47, 29
5, 14/08/2010 18:39:16.0, 12.219, 141.343, 10
5.1, 14/08/2010 21:01:28.0, 12.27, 141.45, 13.5
6.6, 14/08/2010 23:01:06.0, 12.211, 141.408, 22.5
5.1, 14/08/2010 23:27:34.0, 12.185, 141.367, 20.1
5.2, 14/08/2010 23:50:44.0, 12.244, 141.399, 24.9

Mag(Type)/# of Stations, Date Time UTC, Lat, Long, Depthkm, Source RAC
7.1Ms/27, 13/08/2010 21:19:30.0, 12.42, 141.64, 10
5.1Mb/5, 13/08/2010 22:08:43.2, 12.5, 141.79, 33
5.1Mb/10, 14/08/2010 06:19:03.2, 12.39, 141.57, 10
6.1Mb/22, 14/08/2010 07:30:18.0, 12.34, 141.27, 33
5.3Mb/12, 14/08/2010 07:49:01.6, 12.45, 141.51, 33
5.4Mb/9, 14/08/2010 08:20:58.4, 12.32, 141.7, 33
5.3Mb/11, 14/08/2010 14:36:44.2, 12.31, 141.59, 33
4.9Mb/3, 14/08/2010 14:40:28.6, 12.21, 141.71, 33
5.8Mb/16, 14/08/2010 14:44:34.1, 12.26, 141.36, 33
5.2Mb/7, 14/08/2010 15:24:02.5, 12.33, 141.69, 10
5.1Mb/8, 14/08/2010 16:12:37.6, 12.22, 141.6, 10
5.9Mb/17, 14/08/2010 16:35:42.2, 12.27, 141.46, 10
5.1Mb/2, 14/08/2010 17:44:03.3, 12.22, 141.45, 33
5.0Mb/6, 14/08/2010 18:39:15.0, 12.28, 141.37, 10
5.1Mb/7, 14/08/2010 21:01:24.4, 12.17, 141.48, 10
6.4Ms/28, 14/08/2010 23:01:04.6, 12.2, 141.36, 33

Pretty much match for time, the locations are varied though, depth the Russians just guessing (10 = very shallow?/ 33 = shallow?)

The Russians must go to bed earlier, this is the 2nd time they have been sluggish at getting events up lately, they are 2 behind

[edit on 14-8-2010 by muzzy]

[edit on 15-8-2010 by muzzy]

Those idiots!

The quake was set to 6.9, because there will not get into the statistics to 7 + earthquake.

USGS - i hate you -_-

Magnitude 6.4 (Preliminary magnitude ? update expected within 15 minutes)
Date-Time Sunday, August 15, 2010 at 15:09:31 UTC
Monday, August 16, 2010 at 01:09:31 AM at epicenter

Location 5.740°S, 148.410°E
Depth 177 km (110.0 miles) set by location program
Region NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
Distances 136 km (84 miles) WNW (294°) from Kandrian, New Britain, PNG
192 km (119 miles) NE (54°) from Lae, New Guinea, PNG
290 km (180 miles) E (101°) from Madang, New Guinea, PNG
435 km (270 miles) NNE (18°) from PORT MORESBY, Papua New Guinea

Location Uncertainty Error estimate not available
Parameters NST= 9, Nph= 9, Dmin=0 km, Rmss=0.51 sec, Gp=180°,
M-type="moment" magnitude from initial P wave (tsuboi method) (Mi/Mwp), Version=A

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Originally posted by Austria
Those idiots!

The quake was set to 6.9, because there will not get into the statistics to 7 + earthquake.

USGS - i hate you -_-

Or, perhaps it was set to 6.9 because it wasn't a 7+ but that couldn't have been the case eh?=)

No, just kidding. But to most people the difference between a 6.9 and a plain 7 is close to neglible. What matters is the energy released in the quake, and that doesn't differ all that much between those two. But I get what you are saying, it seems as if USGS tend to downgrade quite a few quakes in the last months in order to keep within reasonable yearly averages of 7's.

But Puterman and Muzzy, what do you guys think of the current earthquake trend? It seems, although probably just a perceptional issue, that the earth does indeed tend to shake a lot this year. Are the quakes within the expected range of yearly fluctuations?

And Annmari, sorry for the harsh tone I had before. It wasn't my intent to attack you like that, so... Sorry

Have to say that the incidence of 5+ quakes is a tad worrying.

The average is 140 or so per year, so that is about 4 a day (actually 3.6 on the USGS last averages)

I currently have 59 quakes on my 7 day list that are 5+. Of these 6 are 6+, so that means 53 / 7 = 7.6 per day average.

(182 - 26) / 30 = 5.2 per day for the last month

(1898 - 193) / 365 = 4.67 over the past 365 days.

Seems to be ramping up.

2 x 7+ in the last 7 days = annualised rate 102
7 x 7+ in the last month = annualised rate 84
8 x 7+ in the last 3 months !! (Only 1 more than last month)
24 x 7 in the last year

Beam me up Spotty, this planet is about to blow!

reply to post by rasalhague

IMO, too early to say about 2010 as they may taper off for the rest of the year and that will put 2010 into the same range as the last 3 years ie 20-30 per year. If they keep coming at this rate then its going to be a record year.

In the past there have been spikes, but the old average (pre 1990, used to be 12, now its about 19 (last 20 years)

I don't think the increase can solely be put down to better recording (digital), 1943 and 1950 had 21 and 1957 had 25. They didn't even have calculators back then

I haven't looked at

Originally posted by Austria
Magnitude 6.4 (Preliminary magnitude ? update expected within 15 minutes)
Date-Time Sunday, August 15, 2010 at 15:09:31 UTC
Monday, August 16, 2010 at 01:09:31 AM at epicenter

Location 5.740°S, 148.410°E
Depth 177 km (110.0 miles) set by location program
Region NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
Distances 136 km (84 miles) WNW (294°) from Kandrian, New Britain, PNG
192 km (119 miles) NE (54°) from Lae, New Guinea, PNG
290 km (180 miles) E (101°) from Madang, New Guinea, PNG
435 km (270 miles) NNE (18°) from PORT MORESBY, Papua New Guinea

Location Uncertainty Error estimate not available
Parameters NST= 9, Nph= 9, Dmin=0 km, Rmss=0.51 sec, Gp=180°,

M-type="moment" magnitude from initial P wave (tsuboi method) (Mi/Mwp), Version=A

earthquake.usgs.gov...

When I had a look at the list it had it as a 5.8 Mb quake, now they have put up the type as 6.3Mw
Maybe that was to tide us over till they figured it out

I wish I could get the formula for the conversion figured out, when I think back over the years how many 5.0-5.9mb's there were that when converted could have shown as 6+Mw's. Sure twists the figures arround in a knot.
I suppose you could compile lists based on Mb ................ "too much work"?

edit: BTW the Russians have it at 6.4 Mb
www.ceme.gsras.ru...

Based on previous reportings from USGS most 6.4mb's convert to at least a 7.0 Mw

[edit on 15-8-2010 by muzzy]

reply to post by muzzy


It still is a 5.8mb on the USGS lists.

The Russian figure is just the average of all he figures.

reply to post by PuterMan


Yeah I know, what I meant to say was that it was showing 6.4Unk first time I looked, then 5.8mb after it was posted here, now its 6.3Mw, all on the 7 day list

Looks like the more stations used the less the magnitude in the Russians case anyway.

[edit on 15-8-2010 by muzzy]

there was a "Moderate-Strong" quake in the Indian Ocean

In their opinons it was a;
Magnitude, Type, Date(y/m/d) Time(hh:mm:ss), Latitude, Longitude, Depth km, Location, Source
6.3, Mw, 2010/08/16 03:30:55, -17.788, 65.692, 10.6, Mauritius/Reunion Region, usgs
5.7, mb, usgs
5.5, Ms, usgs
5.6, Mb? 2010-08-16 03:30:55, -17.95 , 65.60, 5, Mauritius/Reunion Region, geofon
5.7, Mb, 2010-08-16 03:30:53.8, -17.99, 65.84, 2, Mauritius/Reunion Region, emsc
5.6, mb, 2010-08-16 03:30:51.1, -17.91, 65.94, 10, Mauritius/Reunion Region, rasgs
5.6, Ms, rasgs
6.3, Unk, 2010-08-16 03:31:00, -18.6733, 65.6348, 30, Mauritius/Reunion Region, geoaus

usgs= United States Geological Survey
emsc= European- Mediterranean Sismological Centre
geofon= German Research Centre for Geosciences
rasgs= Russian Academy of Sciences Geological Survey
geoaus= Geoscience Australia



[edit on 16-8-2010 by muzzy]

[edit on 16-8-2010 by muzzy]

reply to post by muzzy


This document would seem to provide an answer, but the Stewards of the Hostelry require Euro 34 to obtain it.

I have to see if I can work out a conversion tool.

Edit This PDF is VERY useful - and there are others. I will gather a list and let you have it.

Further edit Now this PDF is a gold mine. It explains how they all differ and gives a list of all the scales. There are more than 18 of them - most of which I have never heard of.

This is going to stretch the brain muscles a bit!!

[edit on 16/8/2010 by PuterMan]

Okay, this whole 'deep tremor' going on here right now in Washington State is frustrating me. I am finding lots of good stuff from the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network (who is monitoring it), but since they admit they don't even know what/why it's happening, it's hard to digest the info.

I found THIS webpage with great stuff put together from 2008, but I don't really understand it. I'm hoping Puterman or some of my other EQ suave friends might want to chime in on it.

I know how much you guys love a good mystery!!!

Here is a link to a thread I started on it. In it are a whole bunch of links.

Here are a few to get you started, including the original article that started my most recent obsession.

Thread on deep tremor earthquake

Local news/AP article

Official PNSN tracking page with good links

Interactie tremor map

reply to post by westcoast


I am taking a look at it now, but if the experts can't determine what is going on, what chance has we.

You could say that this quote from the article is good news. "tracking non-volcanic tremor through beamforming"

Edit: Just to say - you know that film 'Tremors'.............

[edit on 16/8/2010 by PuterMan]

reply to post by westcoast


That Interactive Tremor Map really gets the mind wondering just what is going on over there. That is a lot.

5.9 in Fiji just now. earthquake.usgs.gov...

It is 371 miles deep.

[edit on 16-8-2010 by lasertaglover]