Why $200 Oil is Just around the corner !!

$200 a barrel of Oil, no I dont think so either, but Jeff Rubin (The chief economist at CIBC World Markets in Canada for 20 years) thinks so and has just written a book about it.

Bearing in mind he correctly predicted it through $50 & $100, there might just be some credence to what he has to say on the matter. Read the full article here:

www.rigzone.com...

PEACE,
RK

Cool. The idiot masses must not be allowed mobility. I'll cherish the day when arrogant SUV drivers won't be able to gas up.

reply to post by eldard


BIG CARS MEAN BIG FUEL BILLS

TOOK USA about 35 yrs to cotton onto this,
BIGGER AND BETTER IN AMERICA.

Yeahh right...... look at you now

PEACE.
RK

Well, I have some friend of a friend connections with a couple people working the arctic offshore rigs, and apparently they've just about exhausted most of the oilfields up there. Way I've heard it, we've got less than a decade before that oil is more costly (in terms of energy) to extract than its worth (in terms of potential energy).

Not good.

Once the US dollar is no longer artificially supported by the rest of the world, everything is going to go up in price for us.

Dont be suprised if the standard valuation for oil is changed to the yuan or euro in the not too distant future.

reply to post by Rigel Kent


Seriously? You actually signed your post with PEACE after taking a cheap shot? The US is not the only country with gas guzzlers bud.

Even in our economic situation, I would still rather live here.

LMAo. Considering that peak oil is a a falacy, it isn't the SUVs that have driven up the price of gas, it's the influx of higher MPG vehicles. With the exception of embargos, disasters, or intentionally man-caused shortages, we have never had a supply problem caused by too much demand. That isn't what is running the price of oil. Instead, during the 90s as more and more Americans phased out their old gas guzzling models and started buying 4 and 6 cylinder, higher MPG cars the oil industry saw that less gas was being sold per capita and adjusted accordingly. Also, as less gas was sold per capita, the government found it had to further increase it's per gallon taxes to keep returns high, so gas went up even more.

If we were all still driving around in beaters, trucks, sedans, and coupes that pulled 12-15 MPG, we'd all still be enjoying $1 a gallon gas. Those of us who own SUVs gladly give those of you who caused this mess the finger and truly enjoy blasting past you as you try to get to the top of a long grade steeper than 4%.

I have an SUV, pulls my horse trailer (Bug out ammo and meat hauler). I'm hoping more unemployed people will inconvenience themselves with 3 cylinder cash for clunker plastic people pods that they can't afford so the cost of filling my tanks stays cheap. The SUV will let me plow through the herds of empty plastic people pods on my way out of town. Well, maybe that was a bit sarcastic. The SUV does get 18mpg, when it's not towing. Some brand new sedans still get 14mpg. Granpa's 2009 Crown Vic gets 12mpg in town.

I think it's very arrogant for people to try to control what other people buy. What's the word for anti-freedom people? Sheeple? Commies? Czarists?

Let's change the conversation from how much fuel we buy to how much money we spend. Maybe the same people want to control how much other people are allowed to spend and earn?

Hell no! Oil will end below $20, maybe bottoming out around $10. The name of the game is deflation. Stock market crashes. Economy crashes. Oil crashes. It's all fairly correlated. The only way oil is reaching $200 is if the stock market makes new highs. Peak Oil theory? No one cares about peak oil when the economy is breaking down.

With Dow 6500-ish oil was at $30 - $35. With Dow dropping under 4000 oil will probably dip to $20. Last time oil was under $20 was the beginning of 2002--not too long ago at all--Think of it as oil returning to 2001 values.

I talked about this quite a while ago here:
Unfettered Speculative Bubbles in Oil industry given BIG Boost
And yet it was ignored.

There is a theory that $200 a barrel oil could happen because of the crash of the dollar. So if everyone else (China,Japan,India,etc.) starts having dollar fire sales also known as selling their dollar denominated bonds then of course the price of oil will rise because it's traded in dollars which are falling in value.

The other side if that happens, then the economy will get steadily worse. No my friends, we are not out of the woods just yet, and I fear another round of bad economy shortly.

reply to post by eldard


Don't get too excited - there will always be some form of SUV's and they people your jealous of or just plain hat will still be driving them although they might be running on something else - more likely a big battery and solar panels.

If you heard of Harry S. Dent, who wrote the book "The Great Depression Ahead", and many other books in the past predicting the economic crises in the late 80s, 90s until now.

It appears that his predictions made in his book published last year are now coming through. According to his update below, we are now reaching a peak in the stock market.

As I'm reading his book right now, I signed up to his email updates, and today received the following update relating to what you said:

HS Dent Great Depression Ahead Book Update #4
Friday, September 11, 2009

We have been looking for this bear market rally in stocks to peak between late July and mid September. Now we are at mid September and the market has continued to edge up near our optimal sell targets at 9,650 - 9,800 on the Dow and 1050 - 1060 on the S&P 500.

We have already seen a 50% retracement of the losses in the S&P 500 and a 38% retracement in the Dow which are classic for bear market rallies. It also appears that the Shanghai Composite in China has peaked near 3,500 and it has led this rally but is now failing to make new highs.

To summarize: stocks look like they are topping and the U.S. dollar looks like it is near a bottom with strong support at 76 on the Dollar Index. Most bearish forecasters expect the dollar to crash, but note that in the last crash the dollar rallied for many reasons too hard to explain here that we cover in our newsletter.

The stock market has been edging up in the absence of bad news, but the odds of negative news should be rising as our last positive short term 10 month cycle peaks here in mid September. All things considered, this seems the best place to sell stocks for those that have not already.

Our Decennial and 4-Year Cycles in Chapter 3 of the book point down from around here into late 2010. We expect a stock crash that could take the Dow as low as 1,800 - 3,800 between August and October of 2010.

Conservative investors can sell stocks and simply play it safe in a T-bill account, while more aggressive investors can simply bet against the stock market by buying an ETF like SH that goes short against the S&P 500 index with no leverage.

The US dollar is a more moderate play and can be bought through an ETF like UUP.

reply to post by MarshMallow_Snake



Marshmallow,
Please understand that it was no cheap shot,
I was just a kid when America put a man on the moon and I thought thay were the best and most upstanding nation on earth. through my life i have seen how the US establishment has manipulated and controlled other countries for the financial benefit of its corporations and whittled away the rights and freedom of its good people. I myself feel cheated so I can only imagine how the US people feel.

The excessive consumer philosophy that, for decades has been forced on the people is the sole reason for the S that has now HTF. I have been to the states many times since 1981 and have seen the huge engined cars that the citizens love so much. It has never ceased to amaze me how a country with possibly the lowest national speed limit in the world needs such large engines in their cars.

in the 80's, I worked for a company in Houston who insisted on giving me a 3.5 litre engined truck as a company car. the pholosophy of "bigger is better" was very real then and has continued over time, demonstrated by the US love affair with the SUV. Incidentally, the only cargo I ever carried in the back was a set of golf clubs and I didnt see much cargo being carried about in other pick-up trucks either.

I hope this clarifies my earlier comments,

PEACE,
RK









[edit on 12-9-2009 by Rigel Kent]

reply to post by burdman30ott6


S & F for you

I couldn't have said it any better my self and I am glad other people out there see it too, when all things are considered like power to weight ratio and such, SUVs are far more economic to drive that anything else, especially if you have a Diesel SUV, i too happily raise my finger to all you SUV haters out there