This is mostly alarmist nonsense. First, where do you find that anyone will be *compelled* to take the vaccine? I haven't seen any such
announcement or law or whatever. I'm thinking that the vaccine will be entirely voluntary. From all reports I've seen, there won't be enough to
go around. Chances are good that there will be enough willing people to use all the vaccine.
Second, where do you find that squalene is "poisonous"? It's a natural chemical produced in our own bodies
). Yes, some people think that the squalene in vaccines is what caused the Gulf
War Syndrome, but people think it was chemical weapons used by Hussein, depleted uranium ammunition, some disease borne by insects there, and all
kinds of other possibilities. No one knows what caused Gulf War Syndrome.
There is no good evidence that squalene causes problems. Since it is found in the body naturally, it would be very difficult to explain just how a
minuscule amount of this substance, injected once, could cause problems - especially when no connection has been found to any problems. Is it
*impossible* that squalene has some danger? No, of course not. We can never say that anything is 100% safe. Is it more dangerous than the flu
(ordinary flu, not the H1N1 we're worried about)? Certainly not.
Even in 1976, the number of serious illnesses from the vaccine was about 3000; the number of fatalities was around 300. Still better odds than what
the ordinary flu would do. There were some 46 million vaccines given that year. Those are pretty good odds.
If this flu behaves as the one in the Pandemic of 1918-1919, then things are going to get hairy. For one thing, people are going to be sicker, and
many more will die. For another, the fatalities will occur in a different population from regular flu. Ordinary flu kills the very old, the very
young, and those with immune system problems. The Pandemic flu kills those, but it also targets young, healthy people - people such as soldiers. I
don't know whether it is worse for the younger kids - toddlers, pre-teens, etc. - but certainly those in their 20's and 30's are at much higher
risk with this kind of flu. That would include women in their childbearing years, some of whom will of course be pregnant.
If this flu turns out to be similar to the one in 1918, then you can expect about 1/3 of the population to get sick, and around 2.5% of those to die.
In the US, that would be about 100 million people getting sick, and 2.5 million dying. These won't all be the weakest and unhealthiest people. A
huge number of the healthiest, most vigorous people will also die, because this type of flu turns the immune system against the body so that it attack
the lungs, heart, and other organs.
Estimates of risk must take into account the changed behavior of the flu that makes it particularly dangerous to young, healthy people in their prime
of life. It may be true that the number of children who die during an ordinary flu epidemic is around 100 or so; but this is certainly not true if
the flu is like the Pandemic. Thousands of kids died of it. The actual estimate is inexact, but it was in the many thousands.
Does that mean that it makes sense to have kids take the vaccine? Not necessarily. But it is unwise to try to estimate the risk without learning all
the facts. In particular, it is dangerous to assume that this flu will behave as any ordinary flu does. That's the whole point of this concern -
it's *not* just a more severe version of ordinary flu. It behaves differently, kills a different part of the population.
But even at the worst, if this thing does behave as the Pandemic flu did, you're still about 99% likely to survive it, even without the vaccine.