reply to post by gwydionblack
Ahhh yes, true as far as it goes. Do you think there is a possibility that martial law, brought on by the riots, looters, and general chaos, would be
the spark for a guerrilla war? If not, WHY not?
Those groups of men you mention, gathered into LARGE 'stations', are a guerrilla warrior's dream. Taking experience in Afghanistan during the
soviet war there again as an example, these huddled groups present problems for them selves, specifically:
1)Big groups are big targets. (for rockets, mortars, etc.)
2) Huddling in base leaves the guerrillas (in that case the muj) free to roam the countryside at will, doing as they will. This effectively gives them
de facto control of the situation.
3) The soviets in Afghanistan, there towards the end, were pretty much buttoned up in their bases, only sending occaisional Spetsnaz teams out, and
occasional patrols in strength by the infantry. The muj would just melt away from those, and pick up elsewhere.
4) While the big groups are occupied HERE, the guerrillas pick a softer target OVER THERE, and are gone before a response can arrive from the big
group. That can also be parlayed into a 'pull apart' ambush, with a minimum of coordination.
5) Massive, intricate coordination is only required for massive, intricate groups, to minimize friendly fire incidents. Small groups, operating in
their own AO, already know their targets, and where friendly fire would likely come from. They usually elect not to be where friendly bullets are
There are other points, but I think that's sufficient to get my drift. The small groups are LOOSELY organized in having a common goal, under a common
heading, but no particular cell knows who or where the other cells are.
As time rolls on, and these smaller groups gain more power over the situation, they tend to band together in larger groups, and then coordinated
Oh, and by the way, the harder and harsher the crackdown is on the local populace, the more recruits for the guerrillas. The more frustration the bad
guys feel at their inability to decisively strike against the guerrillas, the harder and harsher they crack down on the locals, hoping to smoke the
guerrillas out. See how that situation kind of recycles itself?
Also take into account that nowhere near ALL of the US military will be involved on the bad guy's side. Most of them emphatically will not, although
a few will. They're gonna have to import foreign armies to have a hope at all, and the guerrillas then have the home team advantage of familiarity
with the turf.
Remember Aesop's fable of the Fox and the Hare. It's not always how big or mean you are. Sometimes, it's what you fight for, what's at stake for
you. Like they used to say back home, "It ain't the size of the dog in the fight, it's the size of the fight in the dog".
[edit on 2009/5/6 by nenothtu]