Israel to launch war against Iran within a month

The Iranian people, many of whom I've known, are basically very reasonable and peaceful by nature. But they've fought an 8 year war with Iraq which they saw as provoked by the US. They have US forces all around them in neighbouring Afghanistan and Iraq now, and the mullahs are genuinely concerned they they're next on the list for regime change.

Unfortunately the mullahs have been running the country into the ground for 30 years, and the economy is in shambles. They are increasingly frustrated that their planned Islamic Revolution has run aground. About the only success they've had is their rallying of support in their sabre rattling directed at Israel. Ergo the nuclear threat.

The usual ATS foaming at the mouth types will try to convince you with their anti-Semitic rhetoric in the guise of anti-Zionism, that Israel is the problem. But don't fall for it.

Israel does not want a war with Iran. Iran doesn't want a war with Israel. Wiping out half their populations will not further any causes. Historically they've been allies, counterbalancing the Sunni Arab heavyweight factor fronted by the Saudis.

But a lot of political showmanship goes on in the Middle East with the Iran fighting their proxy war with Israel, via Hamas and Hezbollah, as an attempt to demonstrate to the US and those allied with it, that they are making headway.

Iran vrtually broadcasts to the world every week they have no serious intention of entering into a full scale war or nuking anyone. If they really did, you wouldn't be hearing about it.

A new equilibrium is evolving through the back channels right now, as Iran and the US are trying to resolve their differences. The ongoing antagonism between them has benefited neither side. The mullahs may be religious nuts, but their self preservation instincts are finally kicking in.

Watch for a growing de-escalation of the 30 year antagonism over the next year. Iran is scared and seeks to come in out of the cold, the US does not want another war in the Middle East.



Mike F

I started to watch your YouTube post, and when it suggested that these Zionists were intellectually limited, I checked out.

Something like 155 Nobel Prize winners were Jewish, which would indicate that as a people, they have a 115:1 ratio over any other race.

That's not what I'd call intellectually limited.

Israelis are primarily Jewish, and Jews are apparently some of the most brilliant people in the world.

So, knowing that, I opted out of your YouTube BS.

Hey! Remember when the Iranians dropped that old bastard Ayatollah Khomeini right out onto the street?

That's a class act, all right.

reply to post by masonwatcher


Here is the bet. If Israel bets Iran you never post here. If Israel losses I will never post here. Fair bet for someone who stands by his words. I'll wait for your response. You will probably back out because that is the tactic used by most Arab armies.

Originally posted by FreePalestine

I tell you why Israel can never take on Iran. And these points I am about to make are well know points to American and Israeli leaders, that is why even America is hesitant at striking at Iran, Iran has the upper hand in the Middle East dynamics today.

1) Iran is a democratically elected government.

5) Iran is militarily more developed than the Arab nations in the ME when it
comes to domestic arms production. It produces everything from tanks,
subs, frigates, ballistic missiles, missile boats, fighter jets, satellites,
helicopters, radars, APCs, etc.

7) It has trained Hezbollah and since Hezbollah tactics were so successful
imagine how Iranian military will fare in battle.

13) They can strike anywhere in the Middle East with their highly accurate
ballistic missiles, and across the world through IRGC operatives and
Hezbollah.

14) Iran has the satellites to seek accurate targets across the Middle East.

22) Iran holds all the cards in the Middle East right now and is in a more
favorable position in comparison to Israel and America.

Thanks for the thoughts. Will cover a few of your points.

Are you sure we're talking about the same Iran? The one whose entire special unit got wiped out in Gaza 3 weeks ago?

Iran has a democratically elected government. Sure, as the mullahs only allow hardliners to run in elections removing any possible other voices as candidates. Elsewhere it's called theocracy or dictatorship.

The Russians are concerned about an advancing capability Iran but are happy to sell them their dysfunctional junk equipment and outdated technology at high prices knowing it will be more of a liability than an advantage in a real military confrontation.

Iranian scientists may be rushing towards nuclear weapon capability, this entails not just refining radioactive material, but the ability to produce extreme precision delivery systems and state-of-the-art miniaturization, both areas in which Iran seriously lags behind.

To date they've had two possibly three serious mishaps at their nuclear plants. With their lack of safety precautions, a critical Chernobyl type of incident has a reasonable chance of killing more Iranian innocents than any war.

As for their satellite - it's a low level communication one with no military usage capability.

Iranians has many sophisticated intelligent people, but the heavyweight technological brainpower has largely fled the country for better opportunities elsewhere.

Most countries keep their military technological and nuclear capabilities under wraps during the development stage. Iran’s weekly newsletters to the world is a tip off that their aspirations exceed their accomplishments.


Mike F

Originally posted by GTORick
If Iran blocks the seaways then it might become a US problem.

Iran could also fire on US warships. Then it would involve us. IF it HAS to happen, what better time than with combat veterans right next door?

Well anyone who can load up a world map will see that Iraqi
Air space is right between Iran and Israel.

The distance makes it hard to make a straight flight air war, and
forget flying around it.

I think the plans for several long term bases in Iraq are at least
partially for this very reason.

I think it is also partly why Obama looked like he had not slept the
night after the Intel assessment prior to hand over.

I don't like either side on this, Israel due to the USS Liberty, and
Iran for the mess leading to Operation Praying Mantis.

The big difference between Iran and Israel is that Israel has dozens
of Nuclear Weapons.

This is why the Generals are rebelling about pulling out of Iraq...their Jewish Pals need the US in there for their Attack on Iran so they can fly through and not around.

Originally posted by dooper
reply to post by FreePalestine

 

As far as that goes, one single boomer has more raw, destructive power than all of Iran. Just one.

So that he knows you are telling the truth without question:

Trident Nuclear Missiles with multiple re-entry warheads

With 50+ American subs in the water, 20+ tubes each, and up to
8 warheads per missile you are looking at up to 8,000 glow zones.

Truly an end of the world fleet.

One boomer with 24 tubes would have up to 192 warheads.

The W88 is 475 Kilo-tons, or over 30 times the power of Little Boy.

Iran does not want to screw up too badly or they will face some
truly horrific backlash.

The MIRV method is to push the missile to the edge of space, and
let the warheads fall to earth.

The thing that worries me is Israels nukes. If there breaks out a war and if Iran gets a upper hand. Israel will use its nukes on Iran. There will be a high chance of that happening.

Nukes provided by the US. This will surly give politics a new face for the US in the future.

Another thing. If Israel wages war against Iran. Its going to demand a force of great number. That could give other nations a slightly open door to try to invade Israel. Israel cant fight Iran on its own and at the same time protect its borders. So the US might have to step in and join this war.

Originally posted by Ex_MislTech

So that he knows you are telling the truth without question:

Trident Nuclear Missiles with multiple re-entry warheads

With 50+ American subs in the water, 20+ tubes each, and up to
8 warheads per missile you are looking at up to 8,000 glow zones.

Truly an end of the world fleet.

One boomer with 24 tubes would have up to 192 warheads.

The W88 is 475 Kilo-tons, or over 30 times the power of Little Boy.

Iran does not want to screw up too badly or they will face some
truly horrific backlash.

The MIRV method is to push the missile to the edge of space, and
let the warheads fall to earth.

So you have a US fleet up against insurgents and are equipt with nukes?

Really sounds like they are truly trying to bomb their way to democracy and freedom.

Why would a fleet require those munitions unless they had a thought of using them.
These are not defensive weapons, they are attack weapons.

Originally posted by munkey66

Originally posted by Ex_MislTech

So that he knows you are telling the truth without question:

Trident Nuclear Missiles with multiple re-entry warheads

With 50+ American subs in the water, 20+ tubes each, and up to
8 warheads per missile you are looking at up to 8,000 glow zones.

Truly an end of the world fleet.

One boomer with 24 tubes would have up to 192 warheads.

The W88 is 475 Kilo-tons, or over 30 times the power of Little Boy.

Iran does not want to screw up too badly or they will face some
truly horrific backlash.

The MIRV method is to push the missile to the edge of space, and
let the warheads fall to earth.

So you have a US fleet up against insurgents and are equipt with nukes?

Really sounds like they are truly trying to bomb their way to democracy and freedom.

Why would a fleet require those munitions unless they had a thought of using them.
These are not defensive weapons, they are attack weapons.

This thread is about Iran, not insurgents.

The Subs do not engage insurgents, especially not with those.

Those are in place around the world in case WW3 breaks out.

The Brits have a few subs with that armament as well.

The Russians have their own variant too.

There are enough nukes moving around in many different nations
militarys to end the world many times over.

If Iran nukes Israel or hits them with Bioweapons or Chemical weapons
we will likely tell Israel they are obliged to use their several dozen
nukes they built at the Dimona facility.

We will not need to fire most likely.

Israel by themselves could nuke every major city in the middle
east and have a few left over.

Israel's nuclear program

If however Iran and other nations suprise attack israel from all
directions and overwhelm I have no doubt all of those nations
will get a small portion of those 8,000 possible MIRVs.

And WW3 will be well under way.

Let's drink a toast that peace may prevail in lieu of the possible madness.



[edit on 4-2-2009 by Ex_MislTech]

Originally posted by Ex_MislTech
If Iran nukes Israel or hits them with Bioweapons or Chemical weapons
we will likely tell Israel they are obliged to use their several dozen
nukes they built at the Dimona facility.

What on earth?
Iran does not have Nukes, this is constantly perpetuated about Iran with no actual proof.
Iran has signed the NPT which Israel has still failed to sign.
It has let in inspectors to inspect the nuclear facilities, it is for the production of civilian power supply.

What chemical weapons are we taking about? White phosphorus like Israel uses?
Or are we talking Chemical weapons like the ones supplied by the US to Suddam?
Or are we talking about Bio weapons like The anthrax that was sent to Congress that came from U.S. military research ?

Originally posted by dooperAfter all, no one is going to allow Iran to have nuclear weapons. They are Islamic nuts! Fanatics!

The the best fanatic, is a dead fanatic.

This guy is bare jokes, if ATS had a "dub this user a clown" - I would click that link

FreePalistine - don't confuse me as being pro Israel, but indeed, some of your points seem rather embellished and/or optimistic.

2) Its people are all united amongst when it comes to confronting outsiders.

This might matter if an occupation would be the ultimate goal of any Israeli attack. Then all of these people could get in line to be suicide bombers resisting their foreign occupation.

While Iran's leader openly talks about the need to remove Israel and its citizens from the pages of history, Israel is genuinely concerned with the proliferation of their culture, religion, and future existence. At this point, their biggest threat could be eliminated by removing Iran's nuclear capabilities. They could further their cause by delivering massive blows to Iranian infrastructure. That strategy would buy them decades of relative safety from Iran's threat to erase Israel from the chalkboard.

7) It has trained Hezbollah and since Hezbollah tactics were so successful
imagine how Iranian military will fare in battle.

What examples of this success are there? Suicide bombers, and random lobbing of big firecrackers? This can hardly be seen as successful. If by successful, you mean maintaining their ability to exist, then you got something there.

9) It occupies strategic locations in the straight of Hormuz, in the Persian
Gulf and large borders with Iraq and Afghanistan.

These large borders are currently within arms reach of the US military. Any advantages to be gained from their geographic location would be quite limited and sporadic at best. Any restraints placed on the waterways will be removed by countries they affect.

11) Flood Iraq, Afghanistan and Lebanon with IRGC troops and Basji militias which number in excess of 12 million plus

11.5 million of those troops/militia will likely need to have very strong throwing arms because their arsenal will be limited to rocks unless they are planning to take turns using weapons. It would be pretty easy for Israel to fend off an advancing mass of relatively unarmed loyalists even if they are running fast.

12) It has stated that American troops in Iraq and Afghanistan are not a
threat to Iran but an advantage to Iran because they are more of a
hostage.

Whoever it has that said that is surely confused

14) Iran has the satellites to seek accurate targets across the Middle East

Israel has, at a theoretical minimum, equal capabilities. It is probably safe to say that Israel is not working in that minimum capability scenario.

15) American bases across the ME would be under threat with ballistic
missiles and IRGC operatives for allowing Israeli aircraft to access
Iraqi airspace.

If this were to happen, it will probably only happen once. At which point, the US would take care of the infrastructure demolition discussed earlier.

What Iran should do is elect a leader who puts an end to the "destroy Israel for all time" rhetoric. Israel and the ME need to learn to live and respect each other's right to exist w/o constant confrontation and threats - it is pointless. Once that is accomplished, Israel also has to put someone in charge that believes in addressing disputes amongst neighbors with something other than bullets.

reply to post by Founding



I hope Mason takes you up on your little bet!

Without american aid the IDF and IAF wouldn't stand a chance,If Iran has purchased the latest Russian Air defence then Iran could stop the IAF in its tracks.If it hasnt then yes IAF planes will bomb targets at will,but a ground war would tricky.

If America is dragged into any future conflicts with Iran,then they can kiss goodbye to their troops stationed in Iraq.The Shia population there are tied to Iran and an attack on that country would only result in a gigantic uprising in Iraq.I dont think the greenzone would be enough to protect the troops out there when so many Iraqi's take up weapons for their fallen kin in Iran.

Perhaps that is the real reason that a majority of american troops are going to pulled out of Iraq soon?Far safer to have them in Afganistan than surrounded by potential enemies in a hostile theatre of war

Lets hope there is no war with Iran,that would realy ignite the Middle Eastern area and could be a domino effect on near by countries as other goverments take sides in the conflict.

I feel that if Israel is losing and it decides to use Nukes,that American SF would prevent them from launching.I know that America suports Israel but it cant be blind to the outcome of using these weapons and the potential blowback they would recieve when other countries point the finger at them for allowing Israel to launch them(right or wrong)

reply to post by MoothyKnight


is this dude on crack?????? not u i mean the guy in the vid

OMG! did u see his eyes!!! man that was spooky

ER YES NEXT MONTH end of the friggen world lol wooo more death and madness

guess that means the 2012 theory is out the window?

reply to post by Founding


who are u kidding if this is real none of us are making BETS

roll on armagedon!!

im just happy all the 2012 nuts got the date wrong LOL

Originally posted by dooper
I started to watch your YouTube post, and when it suggested that these Zionists were intellectually limited, I checked out.

Something like 155 Nobel Prize winners were Jewish, which would indicate that as a people, they have a 115:1 ratio over any other race.

That's not what I'd call intellectually limited.

Israelis are primarily Jewish, and Jews are apparently some of the most brilliant people in the world.

You don't have to be a Jew to be a zionist, e.g. Dooper. Furthermore, you don't have to be a zionist to be a Jew.

Zionism is a nationalistic political philosophy like Marxism. Like Marxism, zionism is an athiest philosophy that endows the follower with their own godhead. It is an act of self worship similar to features of narcissistic disorders.

Being an intellect of profound proportions to receive the Noble invariably means that the individual is anti zionist. All Jewish Nobel Science prize winners either reject zionism or begin to hate it. Pure intelligence hates zionism.

More interestingly, no natural born Israeli has ever won the Nobel Science Prize. Zionism distorts the mind.

Jews who win the prize are more often people of middle class origin, living in wealthy and technologically advanced countries. Their successes are products of what their society offers. Jewishness is not a race but a religion.

[edit on 062828p://am2824 by masonwatcher]

Originally posted by BuffaloJoe

While Iran's leader openly talks about the need to remove Israel and its citizens from the pages of history,

Once again this lie is being perpeturated.

I do not usually use Wikipedia as a reference but even it says

According to Juan Cole, a University of Michigan Professor of Modern Middle East and South Asian History, Ahmadinejad's statement should be translated as:

The Imam said that this regime occupying Jerusalem (een rezhim-e eshghalgar-e qods) must [vanish from] the page of time (bayad az safheh-ye ruzgar mahv shavad).[11]

According to Cole, "Ahmadinejad did not say he was going to 'wipe Israel off the map' because no such idiom exists in Persian". Instead, "He did say he hoped its regime, i.e., a Jewish-Zionist state occupying Jerusalem, would collapse

that sounds a lot different than the need to remove Israel and its citizens, he was refering to the Zionists, and last I heard, not all Jewish people in Israel are Zionist.

shall we just look at a couple of headlines?

"IDF preparing options for Iran strike"
www.jpost.com...

"Israel 'prepared to attack' Iran nuclear plants"
www.timesonline.co.uk...

"Time seen running out for attack on Iran"
uk.reuters.com...

"Israel's Ehud Olmert: 'All possible means' must be used to stop nuclear Iran"
www.telegraph.co.uk...


From the looks of it, it seems that Israel is doing more in the way of threatening Iran than visa versa.

[edit on 4-2-2009 by munkey66]
edited due to poor link being slightly off

[edit on 4-2-2009 by munkey66]

Originally posted by dooper
I started to watch your YouTube post, and when it suggested that these Zionists were intellectually limited, I checked out.

Something like 155 Nobel Prize winners were Jewish, which would indicate that as a people, they have a 115:1 ratio over any other race.

That's not what I'd call intellectually limited.

Israelis are primarily Jewish, and Jews are apparently some of the most brilliant people in the world.

So, knowing that, I opted out of your YouTube BS.

Hey! Remember when the Iranians dropped that old bastard Ayatollah Khomeini right out onto the street?

That's a class act, all right.

JUdaism is not a race, and you clearly are incapable of maths.

Further your responses regarding Irans potential wreak of ignorance - completely driven by popular myth.

Originally posted by FreePalestine
I tell you why Israel can never take on Iran. And these points I am about to make are well know points to American and Israeli leaders, that is why even America is hesitant at striking at Iran, Iran has the upper hand in the Middle East dynamics today.

1) Iran is a democratically elected government.
2) Its people are all united amongst when it comes to confronting outsiders.
3) It has a very large and sophisticated military with advance tactical
development.
4) Iran's Nuclear energy program is the source of national pride and Iranian
military will be expected by the people to strike back in harsh ways.
5) Iran is militarily more developed than the Arab nations in the ME when it
comes to domestic arms production. It produces everything from tanks,
subs, frigates, ballistic missiles, missile boats, fighter jets, satellites,
helicopters, radars, APCs, etc.
6) It has a history of fight ferociously and aggressively against aggressors
7) It has trained Hezbollah and since Hezbollah tactics were so successful
imagine how Iranian military will fare in battle.
8) It has a huge population, natural resources, and land mass which gives it
strategic depth.
9) It occupies strategic locations in the straight of Hormuz, in the Persian
Gulf and large borders with Iraq and Afghanistan.
10) It can choke of the worlds oil & gas supplies in the Persian Gulf
11) Flood Iraq, Afghanistan and Lebanon with IRGC troops and Basji militias
which number in excess of 12 million plus
12) It has stated that American troops in Iraq and Afghanistan are not a
threat to Iran but an advantage to Iran because they are more of a
hostage.
13) They can strike anywhere in the Middle East with their highly accurate
ballistic missiles, and across the world through IRGC operatives and
Hezbollah.
14) Iran has the satellites to seek accurate targets across the Middle East
15) American bases across the ME would be under threat with ballistic
missiles and IRGC operatives for allowing Israeli aircraft to access
Iraqi airspace.
16) Iraqi would be engulfed with unrest unseen so far in its destructiveness
17) America and Israel will be alienated from the Muslim world to new
heights.
18) The European countries will refuse to cooperate with America and Israeli
arrogance and violation of Iranian sovereignty.
19) The Middle Eastern nations will refuse to allow American access to their
lands for a war with Iran.
20) Iran has the WMD to have MAD with Israel through its massive
chemical and biological stockpile which are enough to ensure deterrent
from Israel or America using unconventional weapons.
21) It has the ability to strike at Dimona and cuz massive radioactive fallout
22) Iran holds all the cards in the Middle East right now and is in a more
favorable position in comparison to Israel and America.

[edit on 3-2-2009 by FreePalestine]

A succinct list - however this tends to pride - something I would avoid
SOme excellent points raised including Irans self sufficiency - often overlooked.

Two points for other posters - Iran has plenty of their own satellites - this is merely the first time hey have launched their own - France operates numerous launch sites which outstrips any other launch facility, Kazakhstan, and even Australia has several launchers - don't me so naive.

Secondly Israel can launch all it likes, there will be retaliation and this will escalate - hence the strategic position of Iran is fantastically important.

ON your points- if I could add that Iran s now the primary power within Iraq - Is also the primary power in Afghanistan and has powerful allies in Pakistan, Russia and China -

Further where Iraq is the Valley - Iran is the mountains (hence their names).

A single US nuclear carrier is not that strong - it is used only as a staging post for strikes against against radar and anti aircraft installations - planes and cruise missiles - thats it. It requires and armada to protect it and is merely a projection of force. It can do nothing for a general war and would be almost entirely useless against Iran - absolutely ridiculous comments.

Please understand why America and Israel are so upset at Iran acquiring the SAM 300 russian made anti aircraft anti missile defence system - renders Israel and your precious carrier useless.

Further carriers in the gulf would be sitting ducks and taken out faster than you can say Sunburn Missile. (do some research).

Th greatest mistake Israel could ever do would be to take on Iran - would be the end.