Originally posted by Alias Jones
good point - explain to me exactly how unemployment went up and so did job growth ?
I sure can...
The "jobs growth", more accurately called, the "Non Farm Payroll Survey" is promulgated by interviews with businesses that hired new employees in
the non agriculture industries.
The unemployment numbers are promulgated by interviews with households.
They are two totally seperate surveys conducted by two seperate groups. Additionally, when you have some 353,000 new people entering the workforce
each month 308,000 new jobs is still behind the curve.
80% of the jobs were created in the healthcare and service sectors while manufacturing actually LOST 2,300 jobs (I think it was 2300, it's 2:30 am
and I read this at 10:00am yesterday) probably due to outsourcing and technology gains.
No matter how you look at it it is GOOD NEWS unless, as some one pointed out here, they come back next week with a big revision to the downside.
My concern is that these were "onetime" fill positions that had been needed for sometime. I know for a fact that nurses are in short supply all over
the country and it isn't unthinkable that 100,000 nurses found positions upon graduating or returning to the workforce because of a great offer.
One month does NOT a trend make however. the "proof" will be in the numbers coming out over the next two or three months. If this level of growth
continues for a solid quarter I would then beleive the "jobless" part of the economic recovery has ended and the nation is on its way to hugely
prosperous business cycle.
The reality is the world is a very tenuous and fragile place at the moment. One big bang form a terrorist's attack and we go right back down the
My instincts tell me this surge is anomolous to a substantial degree. Like I said above, I fear alot of these jobs were one time shots that won't be
sustained based on the data I reviewed yesterday that indicated where the jobs were created.
All that being said, anytime you create 308,000 new jobs in one month it means some things are going very well. 308,000 jobs in a month carried out
over a year would equate to well over 3,600,000 new jobs annually which is nearly unprecedented.
Hopefully this a sign of good things to come.