Originally posted by Fromabove
McCain will take Pennsylvania, Virginia and all of the swing states. He will also take all the states where there is a 5% lead for Obama. McCain will win the presidential election with over 290 to 300 electorial votes. And he will win the popular vote by 52%.
remember, you heard it here first.
Originally posted by GeneralLee
I've been deliberating as to whether or not I shouldn't go ahead and vote now.
[edit on 24-10-2008 by GeneralLee]
Originally posted by phinubian
I disagree with the Bradley effect, he was a completely different personality and these are different times than then, there are many, many things based on race that have just quite simply changed.
I got out of the U.S. Army in 1989 and attended college in Richmond, Virginia, I was thankful to have also attended the inauguration of Douglas Wilder, who would have thought that then it would have been possible in the conservative, republican state that I grew up in would elect a black governor, fast forward 20 years to now.
Just by judging by the high mix of white, black and other ethnicities attending the Obama rallies in mass, bumper stickers, yard signs in white neighborhoods this speaks volumes, I really do not think people that say one thing in a poll and do the other because they don't want to seem racist exists as a gamechanging factor, people are saying what they really feel outwardly and loud nowadays and I think that it may work the other way around.
I heard a report snippet on the radio the other day that an elderly white woman was going to vote for Obama, but she could not let her friends know this, I think there is more of this sort of effect than the Bradley effect, I would go so far to say we will see the Obama effect in a landslide this go around.
[edit on 25-10-2008 by phinubian]
In most cases, the numbers are not an "average" but rather regression based trendlines. The specific methodology depends on the number of polls available.
If we have at least 8 public polls, we fit a trend line to the dots represented by each poll using a "Loess" iterative locally weighted least squares regression.
If we have between 4 and 7 polls, we fit a linear regression trend line (a straight line) to best fit the points.
If we have 3 polls or fewer, we calculate a simple average of the available surveys..
There are several principal ways that the FiveThityEight methodology differs from other poll compilations:
Firstly, we assign each poll a weighting based on that pollster's historical track record, the poll's sample size, and the recentness of the poll. More reliable polls are weighted more heavily in our averages.
Secondly, we include a regression estimate based on the demographics in each state among our 'polls', which helps to account for outlier polls and to keep the polling in its proper context.
Thirdly, we use an inferential process to compute a rolling trendline that allows us to adjust results in states that have not been polled recently and make them ‘current’.
Fourthly, we simulate the election 10,000 times for each site update in order to provide a probabilistic assessment of electoral outcomes based on a historical analysis of polling data since 1952. The simulation further accounts for the fact that similar states are likely to move together, e.g. future polling movement in states like Michigan and Ohio, or North and South Carolina, is likely to be in the same direction.
We take current state-by-state polls and turn the results into probabilities. Each simulation picks a winner in each individual state, based on the probabilities for that state. For example, if McCain has a 55% chance of winning Nevada, he will, in the long run, win Nevada in 55% of the simulations conducted. States that are not polling close (e.g., Utah or Rhode Island) will always yield the same result. As a result, a closer election, with more swing states, will yield a wider range of simulation results than an election with fewer states that are up for grabs. The simulator does not consider the possibility of split electoral votes in Maine or Neb
Democrats are outvoting the GOP by a margin of 2.5-to-1 in North Carolina, where early voting has been under way for a week. That's roughly double the margin from 2004.
More than 210,000 blacks who are registered as Democrats have cast early ballots in the Tar Heel State — compared with roughly 174,000 registered Republicans overall. Four years ago, the number of GOP early and absentee voters was more than double that of black Democrats.
"It's a sign about how energized African-Americans are about this election," says David Bositis, who tracks black voting trends at the Washington-based Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies.
In Louisiana, more than 31 percent of the early voters are black, and Democrats are topping Republicans nearly 2-to-1. In the crucial battleground state of Florida, nearly 55 percent of early voters are registered Democrats — well above their 41 percent share of the electorate in the Sunshine State.