It's almost over- Obama and the Bradley Effect..

It's almost time to vote, and it's getting late. The national and state polls are all over the place, some up, some down, and some evenly divided. Yet the internal polls of both McCain and Obama seen to show a more clear accuracy which seems to suggest at least that some, if not many people are not being too honest with polsters in this election cycle.

This being evident, one thing is not much talked about. The Bradley Effect. The Bradley effect is when it seems that a person is up in the polls only to be shocked after the vote is counted. To what extent will the Bradley effect plays in the vote for president in November?

Let us consider that if even 5% of the people who claim they will get out and cast a vote for Obama actually cast that vote for McCain instead. This is a 10% shift. This is more than any media related poll gives for the Obama lead.

That being said, I am making a prediction based solely upon a minimum Bradley effect shift of 5%.

McCain will take Pennsylvania, Virginia and all of the swing states. He will also take all the states where there is a 5% lead for Obama. McCain will win the presidential election with over 290 to 300 electorial votes. And he will win the popular vote by 52%.

remember, you heard it here first.

To counter The Bradley Effect Obama must be up by the margin of error plus 5%. So it would seem he's got it covered. That's what a political science professor said in an interview last week.

actually.

The theory of the Bradley effect is that the inaccurate polls have been skewed by the phenomenon of social desirability bias.[6][7] Specifically, some white voters give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference, they will open themselves to criticism of racial motivation. The reluctance to give accurate polling answers has sometimes extended to post-election exit polls as well. The race of the pollster conducting the interview may factor in to voters' answers.en.wikipedia.org...

and yes, it will affect the outcome as it seems now.



[edit on 24-10-2008 by deathhasnosound]

I would not be shocked if that happens. I'm not as big a believer in the Bradley effect (although I do think it exists to a small degree), but I do expect McCain to outperform his poll averages by 3-5%. I think that the pollsters are giving the Dems too large of an affiliation advantage in most cases, plus, I expect that conservative turnout will be overwhelming. I'm also seeing a huge number of conservative Dems jumping to McCain, at least in my area. Win or lose, I believe McCain's final tally will be north of 70 million votes total.

By contrast, going into these last few days, I think Obama is facing a growing danger that a lot of his supporters, thinking he has it in the bag, won't bother voting. I think that has to be of particular concern given that his largest bloc of voters are in the 18-29 range and that they tend to be notoriously unreliable on election day.

I still give Obama the edge, mind you, but I would not be shocked if election night goes completely opposite to what the pollsters and talking heads are currently predicting and McCain cruises to a convincing victory.

I'm not going to gaurantee or predict anything, but I do think McCain can still win this election, by a large margin.

We'll just have to see what happens though.

Well FAB interesting that you put this out on the table. I normally exercise my civic duty on the actual day of election, however this week we have early voting available here in Florida. I've been deliberating as to whether or not I shouldn't go ahead and vote now. I have a bad feeling that the MSM is going to do there best to call this election and discourage as many McCain voters as possible. I mean, in essence they are already attempting this.

I too have a sneaking suspision that the reason there is such a high percentage of undecideds.....is that they simply, for fear of being called a rasicst, will not say that they just won't vote for Obama.

We shall see but from my standpoint I would love to see that particular egg on their faces come November 5th.

[edit on 24-10-2008 by GeneralLee]

reply to post by Fromabove


People going out to cast a vote for obama and actually cast one for McCain? Youre talking about the Diebold scam hu?

Originally posted by Fromabove
remember, you heard it here first.

Okay. So in 11 days I can come back to this thread and say 'I told ya' so' first ... when obama wins.

Obama is going to win.
I do not believe in the so-called 'Bradley Effect'.

Sorry.

(Just FYI - I'm not voting for Obama or McCain)

reply to post by Douggie


It has nothing to do with vote fraud.

The Bradley Effect is phenomenon were supposedly some white voters will tell pollsters that they plan to vote for a minority candidate (in this case, Obama) because they are afraid of being labeled racist, when, in fact, they never had any intention of voting for that candidate at all.

In other words, if the Bradley Effect exists (and I think that if it does, its effects are very small), there may be a small, but statistically significant fraction of white voters who tell the pollsters that they are voting for Obama when, in fact, they fully intend to vote for John McCain on election day.


[edit on 24-10-2008 by vor78]

With ACORN admitting today that out of the 1.3 million 'new' voters they have registered, only 400,000 are actualy legit. The Bradley effect may well become a real factor here. The Polls are skewed by who takes them and by who they actualy call, not any real scientific mandate!

Zindo

reply to post by vor78


I think were way past race. People dont want to see there country destroyed by the elitists anymore. Granted if Obama was white he would be considered the NEXT JFK. Its not going to be as much of a landslide as we would expect.
But people are a little more concerned about the welfare of there country and there pocket books not to consider having a black president.
Again, granted if he would have ran back in 2000 against Bush, Race would have had a bigger issue with it.

Remember The Chicago Daily Tribune headline was, "Dewey Defeats Truman!"
I think the msm will have egg on their face the next day.

The way I have seen it is that it doesnt really matter who is going to win. Either way there is going to be hell to pay for who ever lives in the usa.
Simply put we have been getting more and more reports of people fighting, destroying property etc etc
We are all in for a really bad ride no matter who wins.honestly people with the large percentage of us who want the down fall of the nwo and ellites; we arent doing a hell of a lot to stop their present plan to cause massive upheaval. On the contrary we are on here day in and day out fighting just like they want everyone too. Mabe we should start to pay attention to what is going on here and stop this before WE get sucked in with the sheeple!
!peace! who ever you choose to vote for xoxoxo

Originally posted by Douggie
reply to post by Fromabove

 

People going out to cast a vote for obama and actually cast one for McCain? Youre talking about the Diebold scam hu?

You really need to read the entire thread and then do a little research as well into the Bradley Effect if the thread doesnt give you enough information to form a logical thought process.

This is a REAL effect on public polling and perception vs. private feelings and thoughts.

It has absolutley nothing to do with a suppossed faulty voting machine, although I tend to think the error with the voting machines was nothing more than operator error. .....Just my thought though.

Dorian Soran

reply to post by Douggie


Again, I am not a big believer in the Bradley Effect. It may exist, but I don't think it'll account for more than 1-2% in the polls. That could conceivably be the difference in some battleground states like VA and NC, but I've long believed that Obama's Achilles heel is the oversampling of Dems by the pollsters and the possibility for complacency among his supporters on election day, particularly those unreliable under-30 voters I mentioned.

I expect Obama to win, but McCain could surprise and win, possibly big, if Obama supporters think this is a done deal and don't bother showing up at the polls.

And BTW, the Bradley effect is not a display of overt racism by those voters. It is a fear of being labeled racist.

[edit on 24-10-2008 by vor78]

I think it's gonna be more like the Chernobyl Effect.....everything the McCain campaign puts out turns toxic and blows up in their face....

I think people have made up their minds. Now it's just about getting out the vote.

reply to post by Grafilthy


You say they've made up their minds, but almost every poll is showing 5-10% of likely voters still undecided. *That* could very well be a potential source of something very similar to a Bradley Effect as well.

I already expected undecideds to break for McCain in the 55-60% range, but now this makes me wonder if it could be a good 10% higher. Still not enough for McCain to win if the actual voting follows the polling, but it would make it a lot closer.

We'll find out soon enough, I suppose.

[edit on 24-10-2008 by vor78]

reply to post by vor78


I know, just being sarcastic

I believe the Bradley effect is true as well, but I dont believe it will be what wins it for McCain.

I can't begin to tell you how many people Ive already heard saying they wont go vote because Obama already won. I think this alone will be the biggest factor and unfortunately this will be believed to have been the Bradley effect.


The most accurate pollsters in 2004 have both obama and mccain less than a point away from each other. If this is accurate we are going to be in for a long next few months.

I am awaiting the riots....

[edit on 10/24/2008 by AndrewTB]

apnews.myway.com...

Good explanation for poll errors. Also remember the polls showing Obama way ahead are flawed by the number of Dem's pulled. Don't just read the headline, read the poll.

I agree with the Bradley effect but disagree with 5%. I say 2% Bradley 3% No shows.

It's the "rock the vote" These are registered likely voters who are leaning for Obama. 70% of Obama voters between the age of 18-34 plan to vote on election day. Now really a 25 YO with a cute blonde wanting to meet or Vote. Helloooooo cutie pie, good bye Obama vote. IMO