posted on Oct, 24 2008 @ 10:30 AM
I would not be shocked if that happens. I'm not as big a believer in the Bradley effect (although I do think it exists to a small degree), but I
do expect McCain to outperform his poll averages by 3-5%. I think that the pollsters are giving the Dems too large of an affiliation advantage in
most cases, plus, I expect that conservative turnout will be overwhelming. I'm also seeing a huge number of conservative Dems jumping to McCain,
at least in my area. Win or lose, I believe McCain's final tally will be north of 70 million votes total.
By contrast, going into these last few days, I think Obama is facing a growing danger that a lot of his supporters, thinking he has it in the bag,
won't bother voting. I think that has to be of particular concern given that his largest bloc of voters are in the 18-29 range and that they tend
to be notoriously unreliable on election day.
I still give Obama the edge, mind you, but I would not be shocked if election night goes completely opposite to what the pollsters and talking heads
are currently predicting and McCain cruises to a convincing victory.