The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

Thanks for finding that info OBE1, that makes a lot of sense , though the scaling back of the window still seems rapid - as you said , having to possibly reverse that decision at some point in the future would spook the markets.

reply to post by HimWhoHathAnEar


It's not because of my picks, why dont you look at my posted trades. It's because I end up gambling with large lots and get overleveraged with my accumulated margin I acquire from my wins. It has nothing to do with the outlook in the markets, thats why I am automating everything so I do not have to make decisions based on my eyes bleeding watching for setups for 10 hours straight. You get pretty "tilted" that way if you are familiar with the term.

Maybe you should stick your neck out on the line and then be responsible for it? I do that consistently, you should take a look instead of just throwing around baseless comments.

I do not mind anyone elses opinion, really, although just because I am not always blaming the govt. and ben b. consistently for my problems doesn't mean my viewpoint isn't valid. If you have been paying attention I have thrown a world of wealth out in this thread in the past.

reply to post by jacksmoke


Yes, I did not mean to put down Vit Dogg. That was wrong and like I said I do like everyone elses opinion, I just don't like being called out for trying to help people.

Maybe you should stick your neck out on the line and then be responsible for it? I do that consistently

reply to post by GreenBicMan


I don't walk into a casino and 'put my neck on the line'. Yes, you do it consistently and consistently you lose. Until you step out on the street and see the 'big picture' you will continue to give away the little money you have to the house.

Forex is simply a race to the bottom by the fiat currencies of the world.

reply to post by HimWhoHathAnEar


God, would you just do a little math and see that I am up about 300 pips over the past 2 months with my posted trades? It's what I do on the side when making rash decisions to boost my small bankroll.

You are correct though, that is like going to the casino, that's not trading that is idiocy. I have already stated that as well, that's why I am sitting on my hands until I can work out my programs. I, nor anyone for that matter, can perform on a consistent basis doing this.

Not that any of that should matter to you anyway, I am not sure why you even really care. But it is amusing that you have thrown out nothing but half incorrect insults while providing nothing in the way of your own outlook in the entirety of this thread. I do remember quite a few people though calling me out (including you I'm guessing) around DOW 8000 telling me I was crazy for what I saw in the future.

I really do not want to talk about this anymore, it's not advancing anything here and I am sure no one else wants to read about it.

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by jacksmoke

 

Yes, I did not mean to put down Vit Dogg. That was wrong and like I said I do like everyone elses opinion, I just don't like being called out for trying to help people.

hey vitt...i lost a 50k stake in 08 trading on the THINKORSWIM platform, i am back but have 10,000 shares in PHK, it's run now by PIMCO co-founder bill gross, has a 13% return and is "fairly" liquid. pays 12 cents per share monthly....so far so good.....by the way, don't feel bad...i lost 3k just on that bearsterns weekend debacle in 08' friday it was 29.98, come monday, it was 2.62...and because of that i do not trust our finanacial leadership, plenty of "F" ing that investors got during the last couple of years

we don't trade techs on forex....we react to what we see at times of volatility.....also. twoo months ago i called for dollar up till march we'll be watching the jpy fiscal year end

ps the carry trade , say no more

I fully understand that those who trade are trying to make a buck and really don't care that the whole shebang is coming down. The problem is, what do you do with your casino chips when the casino goes out of business?

GBM, I really don't care as far as it goes, I have my money in the best possible long term investments: REAL MONEY. Not even so much an investment as wealth preservation. If you ever do make any extra casino chips, consider cashing them out and stashing them for yourself before it's too late.

reply to post by HimWhoHathAnEar


The casino has more than 1 trillion in liquidity each and every day trading hands my friend, I am really doubting the house will come down, but there is always market risk. IMO if you go through life worrying like that you will not find refuge in much.

reply to post by GreenBicMan


My friend, the casino carries Hundreds of Trillions in Derivative Liabilities everyday as well. That's call 'excessive' leverage (understatement).

As to worries, I have very few because I have taken the time to understand the predicament we find ourselves in and have taken out insurance for myself and my family. Mine is simply to try and convey the need for insurance in these dangerous times. If you would rather fritter away your resources in 'the game', then so be it. You will have no excuse when you find yourself in a real bind.

HeWhoHath. I am assuming when say real money, you are speaking of gold. gold is traded in the U.S. in dollars. In Great Britian in Pounds, continental europe the Euro. The price you pay for gold is directly related to the value of the currency you by your gold with. If the value of the dollar goes down you need more dollars to buy the same amount of gold. also, if the U.S. economy hyperinflates but, the dollar survives, you are sitting pretty. but if the U.S. has to switch to some new currency the NAMU for instance, you have no idea what your gold will be worth. If they entire fiat currency system, throughout the world collapses, all the gold you have won't be worth carrying around. As the survialists say "you can't eat gold"
GBM trades currency pairs and does so reasonably well, with sound tech analisys and a ear toward psychology. If you buy and hold or trade gold in any amount watching GBM's trades are at least worth thinking about.
I mean seriously, who has more motivation to make money, than a guy living with his parents?

Sorry GBM, just havin a bit of fun

[edit on 21-2-2010 by jacksmoke]

reply to post by jacksmoke


Your last sentence is basically my life in a nutshell.

Thats why I do not like to lose, plus I am naturally quite competitive.

That is also why I realized if I ever want to realistically drive a Ferrari I better stop the multiple discretionary intraday trades and just focus on picking up crumbs automatically (in a perfect world).

If I was healthier I would go after my ES Mini systems more aggressively with potential clients, but that is not the case. You can't do anything without some real skin in the game though, so it will be tough for a while. It will be a week or so before I get the results of GBP/JPY program backtest, but I will have an excellent sample as it is not half way done and I already have over 120 trades I believe. So if I want a realistic confidence interval this will more than likely suffice.

reply to post by HimWhoHathAnEar


But just let me ask, if it all crashes, how will gold help you?

The gas station will not take it to put gas in your car. There will be no more gas station. Electricity. Internet. Cable TV... etc.

The real gold bullion is worthless as my worthless US Dollars in time of TRUE CRISIS. Not Dow 5000, but Dow 0. The best thing you have after that, the only thing you have left is your family and dog. No one is going to trade you food to live on if it is scarce for gold that has no value in a true crisis.

If you are not speaking of gold then I was wrong. If by insurance you meant soup pantry, well then I guess you are one step ahead of the game.

[edit on 21-2-2010 by GreenBicMan]

Fact: From Wiemar to Argentina to Zimbabwe , and every serious currency crises in-between...those who owned Gold and/or had access to food fared the best. Ask any surviving So. Vietnamese boat refugee desperate to escape death/torture in communist "re-education camps" what currency was required to pay his passage.

Plenty of historical information available on this topic ranging from the academic..to..the anecdotal. A little less typing...a little more reading.

Maybe ?

reply to post by OBE1


Try America in a real crisis. IMO much different than that situation.

Good luck again trying to barter for someone's 10 cans of food for 10 ounces of gold even.

I guess if someone still finds value in it, you are good. But that is the eye of the beholder and definitely not the rule.

Also, where are you going to get in the USA with this gold? Going to Canada? Mexico? Take a flight to the Balkans? How? Even if you found a way they would be in no better shape than us.

I cannot agree with the assumption OBE unless you can continue to sway my opinion.

[edit on 21-2-2010 by GreenBicMan]

There are many intermediate scenarios between 1) Mad-Max-style bartering of gold shavings for cans of cat food and 2) endless marble countertops and Hummers on limitless creditcards for all.

Rather than a total societal meltdown I think a long, prolonged, slow downward grind is much more likely. Things will get grittier, grimier, grungier. You'll see inefficiencies, perhaps even occasional inturruptions of stuff like basic utilities or transportation. There will be sporadic outbreaks of violence on local levels, but I doubt we'll see an organized, full-blown national breakdown. You'll see black markets, and lots of unemployed people "hanging out" and running petty scams on each other to survive. there will be corruption, there will be bribery, there will be shortages and erratic services. You might go to the grocery store not knowing what exactly will be on the shelves for the day.

In short, picture a third world nation. Then imagine things slowly trending that way in the developed world. I think that's a much more realistic apprasal of where things are headed.

Under this situation, there will still be paper money and markets. But they will probably be viewed with a lot more suspicion and be a lot sketchier. Paper or electronic cash will be in use. But I think in this scenario, physical precious metals will be tradable for a lot more of this cash than they currently are. Just a hunch.

reply to post by silent thunder


It is somewhere in the middle.

We might adopt the less credit attitude, but do not count on it in this country.

We are strong consumers, and we forget quickly as a society, this has been documented over and over.

Think of it this way.

OBE lays out a good example.

But this example does not allow for the US crashing, and not some country that has a GDP of less than Rhode Island (minus Arg). I am being cynical of course but you know what I mean.

If the dollar is gone, you have no electricity, and you have 10 cans of food left would you trade your last 10 cans for a treasure full of gold and rubies? I wouldn't and I'm guessing you would not either and neither would OBE. Nor should anyone. That is the scenario I am referring to. That is at the very far end of the curve, I know, but in that situation I do not think you can disagree with me. At that point gold is completely worthless.

[edit on 22-2-2010 by GreenBicMan]

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
I cannot agree with the assumption OBE unless you can continue to sway my opinion.

You're education isn't my job , and I could care less about swaying your opinion , or whether you agree with me GBM.

Personally I don't invest in Gold against a TEOTWAWKI scenario , but there exists numerous historical examples of life under similar dire circumstances...which goods assume/hold value by order of demand...which don't. Show me a currency crisis , severe inflationary event , or an economic collapse [Russia?] where Gold didn't retain value/demand . I don't think you can.

reply to post by OBE1


So when has gold been priced in Rubels OBE? It was still worth something because it was priced in another currency that was still viable.

Your argument doesn't hold water IMO when compared to what would happen inside the USA. When the USA crashes it brings everything down with it. Not really comparable events IMO, but of course I can't sway you on that position.

Would you agree though in my scenario gold is worthless? Or you could just be a smartass about it, but as you know I generally agree with you about long term price of gold. I just think it is worthless if we see DOW 0. If we see DOW 3-5000 you may be a very rich individual, still I think you will be in 30-40 years if you hold all positions.

And I know you don't invest for that scenario, it is just conversation, no need to get all pissy.

[edit on 22-2-2010 by GreenBicMan]

On the contrary , not being "pissy" GBM...just clear. It's simply not my job...no axe to grind...and nothing to "win" from this discussion.

Gold as a store of wealth

The easiest way to demonstrate gold’s value as a safe haven for capital is to look at the gold price in terms of currencies that have recently been the subject of financial turmoil. It will immediately become evident that during times of financial crisis those investors who had gold in their portfolios were substantially better off than investors without gold.

1998 Russia defaults on debt:

Russian investors saw the price of gold rise by 307% in eight months and it has continued to increase ever since.

Full Text

Russian Rubles per Ounce

In terms of utility and value...Gold always has , and always will shine brightest in times of crisis.

Sidebar: You do remember that the Weimar stock market soared to record highs as the currency fell to zero ?

OBE1
Over &
Out