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The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

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posted on Feb, 19 2010 @ 09:04 PM
reply to post by sligtlyskeptical

Go back about 2000 posts and start reading.

Then you can edit your previous post and try again. I am always 100% transparent.

posted on Feb, 19 2010 @ 10:12 PM

Originally posted by TheCoffinman

... the next few years are gonna be interesting....

The next 2 1/2 years will determine the fate of the entire world.

posted on Feb, 20 2010 @ 12:49 AM
I posted this in the citicorp thread but think traders on here should have a heads-up . I don't have an arbitrage programme to hand but think with the FRB shortening it's lending window to just o/n, it could impact on USD spot crosses.

posted on Feb, 20 2010 @ 12:57 AM
reply to post by slidingdoor

It did immediately when the news hit.

It's already too late when you read it because there are computers that read news feeds and trade off of that lol. So you either get stopped out/blown up/instant money depending on what side you were on.

posted on Feb, 20 2010 @ 01:08 AM
Wow, so they all piled into 1month swaps straight off ?

Saying that there will be variables according to different bank's deposits maturing - now to have a handle on that would be interesting ?

I still think the two business days prior to the 18th will be interesting to watch .

Deposits agreed 2 months or 3 months ago are locked in and still may have the 18th as their maturity date.

posted on Feb, 20 2010 @ 01:13 AM
reply to post by slidingdoor

As soon as the news hit about the discount rate which I am guessing you are referring to most pairs against US Dollar fell (dollar got stronger). After the news the markets found their new equilibrium levels so to speak. But it's not like day after day now the market will move in one direction because of this. I might be misunderstanding you though.

posted on Feb, 20 2010 @ 01:23 AM
That figures (the USD getting stronger) .

What I'm trying to articulate (badly:lol
is the correlation between ordinary money market USD based deposits maturing and the need to re-fund them.

If o/n liquidity is the best on offer on March 18th and there is a chance to fund cheaper and for a longer term using the swap market (we used to call it arbitrage) then as deposits come due in the run up to March 18th (particularly the 2 business days prior) I would expect to see more USD strength as people take advantage of the swaps market - incidentally credit limits too could come into play here as swaps on a balance sheet basis are considered far less risky than deposits.

It all points to more forex action either way IMHO.

posted on Feb, 20 2010 @ 01:28 AM
reply to post by slidingdoor

That's about 100x deeper than my thought pattern. But dollar did give back a lot of gains Friday, so it basically almost just had nill effect so far unless you got lucky enough to play the volatility correctly and score.

posted on Feb, 20 2010 @ 01:40 AM
Like I said in the Citicorp post the FRB is potentially setting a dangerous precedent here by only lending O/N into the markets , subject to how much liquidity they allow.

I mean if the Central Bank only wants to risk one tops 3 business days with their money - might the others follow suit ? Could this be credit squeeze take 2 ?

At the very least from the 18th , without the flexibility of funding positions up to 1 month the discount rate will become irrelevent in the interbank markets and could shoot up.

posted on Feb, 20 2010 @ 01:48 AM
reply to post by slidingdoor

Explain what you mean in more detail please.

posted on Feb, 20 2010 @ 02:05 AM
I'm assuming you mean about the discount rate shooting up ? Here goes:
It won't literally be raised by the FRB , the supply/demand scenario could push it up. I'll try and do an example:

Bank A (let's say JP Morgan for reality's sake) has a healthy credit limit and can borrow up to 500 million USD daily from the Central Bank. Perhaps they don't need the full quota but know other lesser rated banks need the liquidity for their own deposits maturing on the 18th of March.

A quick look at maturing deposits by JP Morgan to Bank B shows say 50 million USD maturing on the 18th. Now, this is a bit of a leap but I'm banking on all top tier banks using their overflow to re-lend to Bank B's at a far higher rate. Secondary market dealing is not unusual but IF the top tier banks take their lead from the FED and shorten their lending terms also to just o/n the scramble begins and rate goes up.

And, who wins in this scenario ? the usual suspects .

posted on Feb, 20 2010 @ 02:08 AM
reply to post by slidingdoor

So how would you implement this theory into currency exchange, and which pairs would be the most sensitive?

posted on Feb, 20 2010 @ 02:19 AM
The major crosses , but particularly USD/EURO. At the time of typing the most desperate Bank B types needing the funding will have already by now been downgraded by internal credit departments - ie their limits reduced.

The Bank B's in the secondary market will typically be Europeans (think P.I.G.S. and any others who show weakness between now and the 18th)

When ordinary deposit limits to other banks are capped or reduced by internal credit assesment departments - spot dealing or longer swaps can be the next best thing. Banks used to have far larger spot or swap limits between themselves given the reciprocal nature of the deals .

As for implementation , again assuming ordinary o/n deposit rates become too punitive for Bank B's they will naturally look to the spot and swap markets and any opportunities there to fund themselves cheaper via arbitrage. To see which crosses are working nearer the time you'll need a programme for calculation purposes. A sudden flurry of activity in say USD/JPY or USD/CHF first thing could be a pointer that someone is exploiting
an opportunity to fund cheaper.

[edit on 20-2-2010 by slidingdoor]

posted on Feb, 20 2010 @ 10:12 PM
Just a comment and then a news story.

Comment... Maybe that's just me, but slidingdoor and GBM, you're trashing the thread with your things. Nobody care about what you trade. This is not a chatroom. If you want to talk to slidingdoor, PM him.


Now the newsstory.

Governors say bad economies to worsen

In a survey conducted last week of 45 of the 50 states, the group found that states have $18.8 billion of budget gaps yet to be closed in fiscal 2010. This comes after they have already imposed measures to eliminate budget imbalances totaling $87 billion in the fiscal year, which for most started last summer.

In the budgets they are drafting for fiscal 2011, states foresee shortfalls of $53.6 billion and for fiscal 2012 $61.6 billion.

This is not over by a long shot.

posted on Feb, 20 2010 @ 10:48 PM
reply to post by Vitchilo

Our things are most likely the more relevant thing on this thread. Some critical thinking opposed to posting the most negative thing I can find on a consistent basis regarding the economy, most of which is a fallacy at best, isn't doing anyone any good.

Ruining the thread? That is laughable. Like many of your previous posts on this thread.

posted on Feb, 20 2010 @ 11:11 PM
reply to post by GreenBicMan

Not that you need need the help, but I will back you up on your statement. I will give V. a nod too, you do get a tad fixated on currency trading, but to me currency trading is where emotion and market pyschology get there toe hold to launch into the equity and commodity market. So goes the dollar, so goes the (monetary) world. I am tired of chasing the EUR/USD pair and need to learn it to get ahead of it. Thanks for the ideas GBM.

posted on Feb, 20 2010 @ 11:25 PM
i appreciate and learn from the "chat" more than any works.!

posted on Feb, 21 2010 @ 01:26 AM

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by Vitchilo

Our things are most likely the more relevant thing on this thread. Some critical thinking opposed to posting the most negative thing I can find on a consistent basis regarding the economy, most of which is a fallacy at best, isn't doing anyone any good.

Ruining the thread? That is laughable. Like many of your previous posts on this thread.

Doesn't it seem at all odd to you that you keep getting your ass handed to you playing forex and what not, and yet you keep coming back with what I guess you would call technical analysis? You do know what the definition of insanity is right?

You should be asking why all the negative news is out there instead of blaming the messengers.

posted on Feb, 21 2010 @ 02:15 AM
Unfortunately the pertinent part of my original post and link has been diluted somewhat as forex came to the fore.

Apologies to anyone who feels the thread has been trashed.

I would like to re-iterate though that the FRB from the 18th March will be reducing its lending window to all other banks to just overnight deals. This lending window has been dramatically reduced since January of this year when it went from 90 to 28 days.....soon it will be just one day.

If all the banks were to follow the FRB and decide one day only is enough time on a risk basis to lend money, this could paralyse the markets and lead to credit squeeze take 2.

posted on Feb, 21 2010 @ 03:44 AM
Fed raised the emergency rate because banks are currently borrowing less than 15BB a day at the discount window. A sharp decline from an average of 110BB at the depth of the credit crisis (136BB in the wake of the AIG bailout). They also reinstated overnight maturity...the norm. This "symbolic" gesture will have zero impact on consumers and/or effective lending rates. In fact this entire move was simply designed to signal a "return to normalcy" in the brain-dead.

**Imagine the reaction if the Fed has to reverse this decision at some future date**

Fed emergency loans to banks continue to decline

WASHINGTON — Banks borrowed less from the Federal Reserve’s emergency lending program over the past week, another sign that strains on private credit markets are easing.

Commercial banks averaged $14.77 billion in daily borrowing for the week that ended Wednesday, the Fed reported. That was down from $14.86 billion in average borrowing for the previous week.

Banks have been scaling back their use of the Fed’s emergency discount loan window as the financial crisis has eased. At the peak of the crisis, which struck with force in the fall of 2008, banks’ daily borrowing from the discount window reached $110 billion as banks found their normal sources of credit frozen.

Full Text

Sufficient bank liquidity is holding the Effective Fed Funds Rate (the real-world interbank lending rate) , well in line with the Fed Target Rate:

Federal Funds Data

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