The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

Total cost for the FDIC this week..

5 banks.

Colonial Bank 2.8 billion
Union Bank, National Association 61 million
Community Bank of Nevada 781.5 million
Community Bank of Arizona 25.5 million
Dwelling House Savings and Loan Association 6.8 million

Total cost : 3.68 billion...or about 12$/person in the US.

Originally posted by HimWhoHathAnEar
It's like they're trying to launder money through the stock market to make it appear as if the money supply hasn't increased.

They're using the stock market to try and inflate the rest of the economy out of recession/depression. If equity prices rise, companies are capitalized then that means the overall economy can then recover? I mean this has never been attempted...one of the reasons being equity prices don't magically rise when the overall economy is still in bad shape because normal investors won't invest in companies with uncertain futures, earnings, dividends, etc. But the Fed, with an unlimited margin account, does not have to worry about that. The markets will win though. They always do. The stock market is much more easily manipulated than a global real estate market though, hence why they are starting off small because they know they don't stand a chance in the real economy.

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


This is true it's completely uncharted waters here. The biggest concern I see arising from this is if you pump a hundred billion into the banks that's one thing.. if the banks can multiply that in the equity markets ten times over ... well that's wealth creation the Government may not have expected.. The two forms of money that can be generated without the banks involved or the government is equity in real estate, and the stock market. Like the tech bubble.. an economy propped on capital that just kept multiplying.. but was never backed by anything like earnings.. I can only conclude that eventually this market like the Tech market will have to collapse inwardly through lack of support..

The Gov is desperate to stop the Deflation process...

Originally posted by Rockpuck
reply to post by RetinoidReceptor

 

This is true it's completely uncharted waters here. The biggest concern I see arising from this is if you pump a hundred billion into the banks that's one thing.. if the banks can multiply that in the equity markets ten times over ... well that's wealth creation the Government may not have expected.. The two forms of money that can be generated without the banks involved or the government is equity in real estate, and the stock market. Like the tech bubble.. an economy propped on capital that just kept multiplying.. but was never backed by anything like earnings.. I can only conclude that eventually this market like the Tech market will have to collapse inwardly through lack of support..

The Gov is desperate to stop the Deflation process...

Well that is where the banks are putting their money...into trading the stock, derivatives and currency markets. Just look at their earnings...they aren't loaning much anymore. They are just fiddling in the markets making loads just buying and selling amongst themselves.

Something that isn't being spoken about though is that FASB is thinking about extending mark to market accounting to bank loans. This will but a big dent into bank earnings (I thought they just relaced M2M, now I am confused)

www.webcpa.com...

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


That's weird.. they did just change M2M rules.. that's actually one of the reasons I thought the bank profits were so high for 2Q along with trading profits..

Most bonds are not inflation indexed and so inflation is a factor that influences the yield of bonds. It's obvious that the government wants to adjust the inflation figures that it publishes to make the auctions as attractive as possible.

The seasonal fluctuation of energy prices is kept away as one of the parameters that computes the Consumer Price Index for a good reason. But when the fluctuation of energy prices becomes systemic, the price of food is the first to fluctuate as well. That's why the government economists excluded food prices from the list of parameters. Now there is this index called "Core Inflation,"which has become grossly misleading.

Definition: Core inflation, or core CPI, is important because this is what the Federal Reserve looks at to decide whether or not to change the Fed Funds rate. Core inflation is simply the BLS's Consumer Price Index (CPI) minus food and energy prices.
The Fed uses the core CPI because food and energy, specifically gasoline, prices are so volatile month-to-month. On the other hand, the Fed’s tools are so slow-acting. It can take six - 18 months before the effect of a rate change can trickle down into the economy.
For example, inflation increases during the summer, when gas prices increase due to the vacation driving season. However, the Fed would not want to increase interest rates every summer. Instead, it must wait to see if those increases drive up the prices of other goods and services.

The recent wild fluctuations in gas prices due to increase in the oil prices are hardly seasonal. The rising gas price drives up the cost of food, but it is one- way traffic, as the shoppers painfully learned in the beginning of this year when the gas price plummeted, but food prices kept at the same level.

Gas and food purchase is NOT on the bottom of the list of preferential purchases for most Americans, yet the government conveniently overlooks that these changes are no longer affected by the seasonal conditions -- they are affected by quiet departure from the rules; they are affected by fraudulent manipulation of the demand and supply vehicle.

The government will not adjust to the new condition and will point toward Core Inflation saying that we are doing well in this respect; the government got bonds to sell and so it will join other crooks to get what it wants.



[edit on 8/15/2009 by stander]

posted by retinoid receptor
one of the reasons being equity prices don't magically rise when the overall economy is still in bad shape because normal investors won't invest in companies with uncertain futures, earnings, dividends, etc. But the Fed, with an unlimited margin account, does not have to worry about that.

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


And that's it in a nutshell right there. Rewarding poor performance with printed money is just ridiculous on the face of it. And it was printed money, since as many have pointed out that only 400 billion has come out of 'safe haven' money markets after the first plunge. So 2.3 trillion came from 'somewhere'.

The really ugly part is that they aren't even trying to help american business because they are planning on all that laundered currency going back to prop up the dollar during the next collapse. But just like a junkie, they won't get the same lift out of this one because of the dilution of the currency. Ultimately our creditors will cut us off and dump our paper, which will cause a currency crisis, which is in fact hyperinflation due to the outstanding amount of our paper around the world.

Originally posted by HimWhoHathAnEar

The really ugly part is that they aren't even trying to help american business because they are planning on all that laundered currency going back to prop up the dollar during the next collapse. But just like a junkie, they won't get the same lift out of this one because of the dilution of the currency. Ultimately our creditors will cut us off and dump our paper, which will cause a currency crisis, which is in fact hyperinflation due to the outstanding amount of our paper around the world.

I am sure the creditor nations are complicit in what the Fed is doing. I am also sure that their own central banks are doing the same exact thing.

Interesting consolidations going on

No one is giving up

The trading range we have been in is almost like someone is pulling the strings

For a few days there we were almost rangebound day after day (hitting the same highs al lows and closing on the high or low)

A breakout that is > 2 days either way will be the new signal

To me it actually seems we will head for R2 before any real significant pullback (the same thing we did when we hit R1 - bearflagged out)

here

reply to post by stander


buried treasure

X MARKS THE SPOT

Originally posted by GreenBicMan
Interesting consolidations going on

No one is giving up

The trading range we have been in is almost like someone is pulling the strings

For a few days there we were almost rangebound day after day (hitting the same highs al lows and closing on the high or low)

A breakout that is > 2 days either way will be the new signal

To me it actually seems we will head for R2 before any real significant pullback (the same thing we did when we hit R1 - bearflagged out)

here

I can't see the markets pulling back next week with housing, retail and Ben Bernanke speech. All have been excuses for rallies. Target, Lowes, Home Depot all report next week, and if you remember, Lowes sparked a huge rally last quarter after their earnings. After next week, shorts will start pouncing on the markets again. Just my opinion at least...

by retinoid receptor
I am sure the creditor nations are complicit in what the Fed is doing. I am also sure that their own central banks are doing the same exact thing.

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


What makes you think that? China has 2 Trillion worth of reserves (savings) for just this purpose. The only thing they're afraid of is having those savings stolen by the US through dilution. So I fail to see why they would be complicit in their own mugging. If we don't rip them off then they can provide massive stimulus with their own savings. And with 5 times the population of the US why wouldn't they want to stimulate THEIR consumer base?

reply to post by HimWhoHathAnEar


Because if they aren't complicit, then they will lose even more if there is a drone out depression with constant deleveraging.

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


I'm not understanding what your saying. Could you break it down a bit more so I can understand where you're coming from? You're saying that if China goes along with us devaluing their dollar holdings then they will be better off than if they didn't?

Originally posted by HimWhoHathAnEar
I'm not understanding what your saying. Could you break it down a bit more so I can understand where you're coming from? You're saying that if China goes along with us devaluing their dollar holdings then they will be better off than if they didn't?

Early this year Ben Bernanke met with a bunch of central bank leaders and they decided what they are going to do. Central banks around the world are not working alone, they are working in conjunction with each other to prop up the global economy with pumping the equity markets and money printing. This is not just a U.S. thing. This is a global action in order to avoid stagnation. Stagnation is China's worst fear because they NEED to have continuous high growth.

You are looking at China's "investment" in the U.S. dollar too simply.. They aren't buying the dollar because the dollar is the best investment, and neither are the other countries. They buy the dollar because it keeps the system going. It allows Western consumers to buy from them in order for them to grow their economy much faster than they otherwise would be able to (if, for instance, the dollar was worth much less and thus us having a production base competing with their production base). So the Chinese will sacrifice some depreciation in their dollar holdings in order to be able to get that 8, 9, 10, 11% GDP growth. That is what they care about.

And by the way...when China and Russia voice their 'concerns' over the U.S. dollar, it is usually a show. I love when they do that because all you have to do is short the dollar that day and then buy it the next when they retract their statement. It is politically motivated, not true fear for their investments.


[edit on 15-8-2009 by RetinoidReceptor]

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


No Industrial nation stays Industrial indefinitely.. eventually they reach a point were they are post-industrial and consumer based. China has the fastest growing middle class in the World, the West's is shrinking at an alarming rate. The Chinese hate us for our Dollar and the games we play.. when they pass us (and they WILL pass us this century) they won't spare us anything but a look of disgust.

If we look at historic patterns of the movement from economic powers to the service economies that support them, I believe the best hypothetical situation to likely happen is China transforms into a Consumer based economy while Africa is converted into what the West used Asia for. Just my hypothesis.

Originally posted by Rockpuck


If we look at historic patterns of the movement from economic powers to the service economies that support them, I believe the best hypothetical situation to likely happen is China transforms into a Consumer based economy while Africa is converted into what the West used Asia for. Just my hypothesis.

I've thought about that as well, but China's transformation will take a while. Not to mention...this is Africa we are talking about. I can't see them getting out of the Dark Ages for at least another 2,000 years.

by retinoid receptor
It allows Western consumers to buy from them in order for them to grow their economy much faster than they otherwise would be able to

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


Western consumers aren't going to be buying into anything in the forseeable future. They are simply too far in debt. Therefore, there really is no 'trade off', just a loss for china.

I don't watch what our creditors say either, I watch what they DO. They are currently buying commodities and resources at break neck speed. It's almost everyday that we hear of another acquisition in africa, australia, canada, iran, etc, etc I'm afraid that your view is americacentric to a fault. We are the Debtors and they are the Creditors. We are tapped out, period.

Originally posted by HimWhoHathAnEar
We are the Debtors and they are the Creditors. We are tapped out, period.

Where did our 'creditors' get the money to 'loan' to us?

Was it from us or was it through great innovation on their part? They provide services and make things for us, and we give them money, and they loan it back to us so they can make more things. This isn't a regular 'creditor' vs. 'debtor' relationship. They wouldn't have any money if they weren't loaning it to us. We would still have money if they weren't loaning it to us though. Do you understand? Since originally we had the money and they didn't. And the only reason why they have any money, is because they began making stuff for us.

reply to post by RetinoidReceptor


Wouldn't take to long.

In 1945 the US was a manufacturing economy.

By 1955 the US was a Consumer driven economy. The age of Housing expansion, fast food, suburbs and materialism .. families went from saving money and being practical.. to buying TV's, cars and toasters.

How long will China's transformation take? ... Dump the Dollar, stop inflating the Yuan and allow consumers to take up the GDP were Manufacturing gets cut. I would say 10 years, max.

It will happen by natural progression regardless of what they do.. To make it faster and easier, China will cozy up to Russians and Europeans to buy their crap while America comes to the realization the age of infinite economic expansion without a wealth generating economic base is no longer possible.