The "up-to-the-minute Market Data" thread

Originally posted by stander
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/b413dd7b2165.jpg[/atsimg]

26 points off the morning projection. That means it's a virtual gamble to look ahead from this distance. Or maybe I can find some excuse . . .

Thursday's trading got off to a rocky start amid a technical glitch on the New York Stock Exchange. The exchange said customers "are currently experiencing issues" with acknowledgments of order entries, causing a delay in orders and trades.

Aha. That figures. How could I possibly miss by so much, right?

The market brushed off all the "lousy news" and will proceed according to what Mr. Goldman says.

Stocks eked out a gain after a late rally Thursday as investors cheered an encouraging business-inventories report, the latest sign that the recession is winding down.

That report was available in the morning, but the investors didn't cheer. Maybe there is a long flight of stairs all the way to the penthouse.

More fun on tap for tomorrow...

Consumer Price Index – July Time: 8:30 am Forecast: 0.0% overall, 0.2% core

Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization – July Time: 9:15 am Forecast: 0.1% industrial production, 68.1%

University of Michigan Consumer Confidence – August Preliminary Time: 10:00 am Forecast: 68.5

Prediction: Market Surge resumes....

[edit on 13-8-2009 by RolandBrichter]

reply to post by RolandBrichter
At this point even bad news is laughed off, so, even if it's under expectations the rally will continue...

As long as the helicopter is still dropping money from the sky, all is well and shorts will be assimilated...not that there is any rational reason...just every player at the monopoly table has his/her own personal "Bank"... :shk:

DJIA FV Futures 9368.19 9385.0 16.81

NZSE 50 3,125.71 6:18PM ET Down 3.14 (0.10%)
NZSE 50 3,121.83 6:20PM ET Down 7.02 (0.22%)

@ P4T: Just for you...here's some of the "Bull Speak" from the first GD...

News From The Great Depression
www.wealthdaily.com...
newsfrom1930.blogspot.com...

News from July 23, 1930:

Administration members reported telling Wall Street that business has turned corner, and should curve slowly upward until winter, becoming clearest in October. No forecast beyond that ventured. However, administration strenuously denies rumors of using "its influence to bring about organized support for the stock market."

Much more at Links...

Tuesday, August 12, 1930: Dow 224.13 +1.54 (0.7%)
newsfrom1930.blogspot.com...

[edit on 8/13/2009 by Hx3_1963]

For anyone who is interested in the truth...(and has 15 minutes free)...This is a MUST read...

The New Bull Market Fallacy

Please read and comment!!

The Fed has been pumping cash into the economy but there is no inflation, oil is still around $70 a barrel and even Gold fell today. There is no reason to support the US dollar by messing with interest rates or removing stimulus unless it causes harmful inflation. That is the rational behind buying stocks, the rally continues until inflationary pressures cause the Fed to start raising interest rates.

Question:

What impact would the unemployment application figure for California suddenly jumping by 95,000 in September, 2009 have on the Market?

Would there even be a ripple?


Anyone got the crystal balls to venture a guess?

reply to post by fromunclexcommunicate


The Fed has managed to walk a very precarious tightrope so far, but it can't be sustained...with deflation on one side and hyperinflation of the other, there is no easy way out now....S&P investors are paying $145 for every $1 of earnings...the highest EVER, and this in the midst of a WORSENING economy...

It's the last gasp of irrational exuberance...silly pumpers, they should have taken their lumps in 2001, now all they have done is assured their own annihilation

reply to post by RolandBrichter


Patience.. We will see where we are heading come Christmas.. if the Consumers don't show up.. Game Over.

I wanted to bring this up here that I saw on another forum




truthingold.blogspot.com...

What's the "message" of the market here? Over the last two weeks corporate insiders have dumped over $2.1 billion in stock vs. $73.1 million in buys. I'm not sure I've ever seen the ratio of insider sells vs. buys this skewed toward officers and directors looking for the exit door. Talk about the captain jumping into the lifeboat and speeding away before the ship sinks....

Given that the trailing, "as reported" price/earnings ratio is now 144, or substantially above the peak p/e ratio on the Nasdaq at the top of the tech bubble, what is the market trying to tell us?

Think about that when you call up your financial advisor or broker and tell him you want get out of the stock market.

I think it is worth noting that developing countries have been going through a major correction of late...the Chinese markets have fallen 10+% from its highs in the past 2 weeks and the Russian markets have gone down 20%+ from the highs. Yet the S&P is still sitting at its highs. If tomorrow is an up day I think it would be prudent to buy some puts. Though I am not advising anyone to do anything of course.

[edit on 14-8-2009 by RetinoidReceptor]

Originally posted by RolandBrichter
Hmmmm,
Maybe these guys know what is going on?

The ratio of insider buying to selling transactions is 10 to 136. Total transaction value: Buys: $60.1 million; Sells: $1,146 million. This compares with last week's buys for $13.4 million and sells for $1,042 million. Over $2.1 Billion in insider sales in two weeks.

Full Insider List HERE

Not to skew this important information. But insider selling has been at record highs since the rally from March, but that didn't stop the rally. It is still important on deciphering if this is real or not. And if insiders aren't buying into a new bull market and recovery, then why should we?

It just occurred to me to take a look at how the Dow curve behaves from the day the Dow reached 9k onward. This time, there is virtually no difference between the logarithmic and the power regression line. Both of them project the time when the curve hits 10k as the last weekend in September. The degree of certainty is 80%. When you allow for +/- one week tolerance, the degree of certainty jumps over the benchmark 95%. Once again, the degree of certainty is not affected by sudden rocking developments, such as the official disclosure that Obama is gay and that Bernanke works for a top Chinese bank in his spare time.

Since there have been no sudden and unexpected shifts in the economic indicators that the traders occasionally pay attention to, there is no reason to believe that the Dow will find itself out of bounce and that a different function will kick in. The officialdom will continue to reassure the public that the economy is slowly recovering and the Dow will be heading toward the 10k mark alongside the regression curve taking the oil prices with it. This time, we are prepared for the gas attack: Clash with clunkers! No flatulency allowed.

But is there enough money to buy the Dow a cruise trip to the 10k island in the end of September?
The Fed is lifting the economy from the hole, so it's very unlikely that the prime rate jumps to 5% or so.

Iceberg, iceberg!!!
Aaah, ain't no iceberg; just White House. Relaaaaaax . . .

Hmmm...

So all the "News" must be true...Germany/France and now Japan are officially out of recession...the whole world to soon play ketchup...

Poor China...the Savior of the world is now being left on the side of the road like road kill... :shk:

Shanghai Composite 3,046.97 3:00AM ET Down 93.59 (2.98%)

Hope they don't get irritated and go on a bond tearing spree...

RPT-Nikkei hits 10-mth closing high but Shanghai weighs
www.reuters.com...

DJIA FV Futures 9368.19 9392.0 23.81
S&P FV Futures 1010.73 1014.0 3.27

[edit on 8/14/2009 by Hx3_1963]

reply to post by RolandBrichter


The article you linked to above puts a lot of meat on the bones. Thanks for posting.

The end of page 18, 19 & 20 form the conclusion for anyone just wanting to glance at it. I'll definitely be printing it out.




reply to post by TrainDispatcher


Hx3_1963 referred to the same issue a couple of days ago, and you clearly echo his concern. It's data and insights like this that powerfully belie the 'things are looking up' mantra from the MSM.




reply to post by stander

Originally posted by Hx3_1963
Hmmm...

So all the "News" must be true...Germany/France and now Japan are officially out of recession...the whole world to soon play ketchup...

Yes, it's high time to shoot "Subprime Mortgage Paradise II."
Over at Japan, they are already finishing the script:

Big gainers for the day included Komatsu Ltd (6301.T), the world's second-biggest maker of construction machinery equipment, as well as rival Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305.T) which rose on rating upgrades from brokerages.

Lots of construction machinery equipment is needed to put those **SNIP** in Detroit back into their new-built houses that they lost, coz of that war criminal Bush.

www.bluebonnet.com...
Everything tastes better
with Obama on it.



Admin Edit: removed unsavory comments.


[edit on 14-8-2009 by Crakeur]

University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment in @63.2...way below expectation of 69

You mean all the pumping hasn't helped consumer confidence?

As if consumers really matter to this market....

[edit on 14-8-2009 by RolandBrichter]

Dow Jones Industrial Average 9,254.44 10:15am ET Down 143.75 (1.53%)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH 996.56 10:16am ET Down 16.17 (1.60%)

Things are looking up in "Bizarro World"

Originally posted by Hx3_1963
Dow Jones Industrial Average 9,254.44 10:15am ET Down 143.75 (1.53%)
S&P 500 INDEX,RTH 996.56 10:16am ET Down 16.17 (1.60%)

Things are looking up in "Bizarro World"

Watch for a huge "buy on the dip" campaign this afternoon....the bear killers still have the momentum...

Some may have already read this, I'm sure, but the truth (IMHO) bears repeating...

From Denninger today at The Market Ticker

"Extend and Pretend", "lie about asset values", "bailout nation" and all such similar games are not going to work.

Job loss continues - it is not over, and it will not be over, until we stop being stupid. Until we stop coddling failure and trying to tax everyone to pay for the fraud and abuse of a handful of silver-spoon crybabies on Fraud Street located in Manhatten NY and their cadre of embezzlers on K-Street in Washington DC. Until our government starts doing its job and locking up the phonies who destroyed our housing industry and then stole over $1 trillion from taxpayers to "prevent a banking collapse" - a collapse that, by the way, hasn't been prevented, but has merely been postponed. Until all of the bad banks are closed, which includes most of the big ones, with "bad bank" being any institution that is lying about asset values.

Folks, we have a major problem on our hands and we have solved exactly nothing. There is no "pent up" consumer demand and won't be until the consumer is freed from being taxed to death to support the blatant theft of the last 20 years. Borrowing by the government is taxation by another name; someone, somewhere, somehow is going to have to pay through his or her tax bill for all those borrowed trillions, and the consumer knows it. STOP THE LOOTING AND START PROSECUTING.

And there you have it....

Colonial, Alabama’s second-largest bank, is being closed by regulators today, the person said, becoming the largest U.S. bank failure of 2009 after an expansion into Florida saddled the lender with more than $1.7 billion in soured real-estate loans. The FDIC usually waits until the close of business Friday; they must have had a slight problem with withdrawals......

I guess my friend in Hunstville was right....