Black Monday coming?, page 2
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ATS Members have flagged this thread 7 times


reply posted on 11-10-2008 @ 03:31 PM by kupoliveson
reply to post by andy1033



There was a thing on NPR that said mathmatically if the pattern of losses keeps up to what it has been since September 26th the Dow will hit 0 in 19 trading days! (I believe I heard them say that on Tuesday!



reply posted on 11-10-2008 @ 08:00 PM by JediK
reply to post by tensetek



That's right, Tensetek.

At first, I didn't believe Lindsey Williams, but now even CNN is saying that oil could drop as low as $50 or $60. And...there's an article on Time Magazine's website that talks about how it could essentially wipe out the Middle Eastern countries who've set their budgets according to the price of oil.

Not to mention what it would do to the dollar.



reply posted on 11-10-2008 @ 08:05 PM by JediK
reply to post by CoffinFeeder



Nobody knows the exact date, CoffinFeeder...but it's coming, and it ain't far off. Just be a little more patient.

The sky is falling, and it's a big a** sky.


reply posted on 11-10-2008 @ 08:49 PM by stander
Originally posted by CoffinFeeder
oh wait, its black monday now? what happened to black friday? black wednesday? black 2:13pmCST? When will chicken little come by and throw the sky at you?

Right on.

Color me blind . . . These are subliminal messages to influence the election.

Everyone could see on Friday that computer parametric trading that heavily influences trading patterns regards DJIA = 7000, projected for upcoming Monday, as significantly undervalued stock. There is no way that the market wouldn't buy its way up away from 7000. Computers don't give a sh-t what G7 potentates say, unless you change the parameters in the trading algorithm, which you won't. On the wannabe Black Friday, right after George Bush ended his reassuring speech, DJIA started sliding down and lost around 400 points. This was kept hush-hush in all media, not to create an impression that politicians are no longer in charge of influencing the outcome of short term money market deals in general by blah-blah.

The Friday close is considered a tad above moderately overvalued stock, so Monday will start with selling, but it won't make it to the black territory when the bell rings -- unless there is some major, collective reprogramming done over the weekend.

As you said, there is always hope to paint NYSE black: Tuesday, Wednesday . . . But when the trading burns the fuse one day, because it is not impossible, all the media financial analyst losers mentioned in OP wrap themselves into I-TOLD-YOU-SO velvet to rescue their failing Nostradamus career.


reply posted on 12-10-2008 @ 01:05 AM by jive turkey
reply to post by netwarrior



Yes

I Agree!

GREAT SITE BTW



reply posted on 12-10-2008 @ 01:10 AM by ghostlandseller
Originally posted by LowLevelMason
The good rule of thumb to follow with Cramer is that the opposite of whatever he says is going to happen. If hes predicting a crash, there is a very good chance we will have a huge rally. When he was telling everyone to buy, it was a good idea to sell.

And what is exactly the obsession with creating Black Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday/Friday around here? Every day someone has predicted for the next business day to be a stock crash. Wish fulfillment much? Maybe if we all just think hard enough for a economic apocalypse, it will happen, eh?

[edit on 12-10-2008 by LowLevelMason]



Yeah because so far nothing has happened right? were all jsut completely wrong. Because im pretty sure we lost one fourth of the worlds entire stock market value in just a week. thats not deserving of any negative speculation.

COME ON. We got royally screwed this last week. theres as much of a reason to expect the same thing to happen next week also.

I would say any day last week that someone predicted, or deducted is a better term, anything was pretty much dead on. Because every day last week was very huge and very abnormal.

And Cramer isn't a fortune teller, theres no reason to do what he says. He is jsut giving his insight on certain stocks. he i just in essence a translator for the average Investors. He takes technical confusing information and finance talk, and makes it simple for the average middle aged investor who is investing for their retirement. thats his target audience. He knows what he is talking about, he has his head inside the gut of the finance system everyday. i don't personally watch him because he doesn't really discuss anything that isn't already apparent for someone who really fallows the market attentively.


reply posted on 12-10-2008 @ 01:48 AM by stander
reply to post by ghostlandseller


The only qualified folks to say something about the next development are the traders who made money in the past two weeks. If you're really good, then you are out there on the floor; if you're not, then you talk and sell your insights to those who are willing to listen.

These days, you don't need any dubious support to start a thread about Black Monday, Black Tuesday, or Black Anyday.


reply posted on 12-10-2008 @ 03:17 AM by LowLevelMason
Originally posted by ghostlandseller
Yeah because so far nothing has happened right? were all jsut completely wrong. Because im pretty sure we lost one fourth of the worlds entire stock market value in just a week. thats not deserving of any negative speculation.


Actually, nothing much has happened. Just your normal hysterical and panic based selling. It happens every few years - in 2001-2002, early 1990s, 1987, late 1970s - interestingly, NONE of those times did it cause economic armageddon. The 1987 events did cause a recession, though.

Hysteria and panic based selling just move money from the poor to the rich. The 401k and IRA investors sell on emotion and panic and buy high, then sell low. The hedge funds move in to pick up deals and buy low, sell high.

Originally posted by ghostlandseller
COME ON. We got royally screwed this last week. theres as much of a reason to expect the same thing to happen next week also.


No, no we didn't. The DOW is not a indicator of the health of the economy and never has been. The markets sell off and media fuels the hysteria, it happens every few years.

Originally posted by ghostlandseller
I would say any day last week that someone predicted, or deducted is a better term, anything was pretty much dead on. Because every day last week was very huge and very abnormal.


No, actually, they were not. Every day last week all the predictions I saw were for economic collapse, great depression, etc. - all within 48 hours, mind you. Markets selling off is not abnormal, its quite normal.

Originally posted by ghostlandseller
And Cramer isn't a fortune teller, theres no reason to do what he says. He is jsut giving his insight on certain stocks. he i just in essence a translator for the average Investors. He takes technical confusing information and finance talk, and makes it simple for the average middle aged investor who is investing for their retirement. thats his target audience. He knows what he is talking about, he has his head inside the gut of the finance system everyday. i don't personally watch him because he doesn't really discuss anything that isn't already apparent for someone who really fallows the market attentively.


Cramer is a good litmus test for the sheep market sentiment. As the sheep are always a lagging indicator (they get the information last, after all), by the time Cramer is stirring panic it means its time to buy. When Cramer is screaming to buy, its time to sell off.


reply posted on 12-10-2008 @ 08:36 PM by wutone
reply to post by LowLevelMason



Yea but if hysteria and panic become an overwhelming force, there will truly be hard times based on the downward spiral. Hysteria and panic breeds more hysteria and panic.

If the housing market does not show stability, the entire derivative market that uses the home market as part of its foundation will crumble. There is a reason why the government is trying desperately hard to prop up home prices by preventing foreclosures through loan re-negotiations.

The sub-prime pop has shown exactly how much damage that a crashing home market can do to the financial systems, and still only less than 15% of sub-prime loans have failed. What happens when it goes to a 25% or more failure rate? What happens when other home loans start going into the danger zone?

Credit default swap insurers are going to be more exposed and have their credit ratings downgraded if the housing market keeps going down. They will have to come up with more capital a la AIG bailout or else the whole financial world becomes a 50 trillion dollar wide black-hole.

As far as I am concerned, hysteria and panic are probably the most logical emotions to go through at this time. The government and banks MUST shore up the housing markets, which they are attempting to do or else the entire economic world better start drawing up plans for a new economic system.

However, the markets seem to like action. I bet the markets will see some gains because of the perceived positive action the government is taking, but all it takes is one more bit of bad news and down we go again.
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