Black Monday coming?

I've mentioned before that this week's sell off is identical to that of 1987 and 1929 - before the market crashed.

It seemed my theory has been picked up by CNBC.

Keep this in mind as next week starts. Cramer can’t decide if this market is closer to 1987 or 1929, but he’s pretty sure bad news from Morgan Stanley and lack of good news from the world’s industrialized nations could cause a sizable drop in the markets on Monday and Tuesday. The Dow could go as low as 5,886, he said.

CNBC - Jim Cramer

Jim, during his "they know nothing!" moment, actually predicted that major firms would fall during this crisis (back when the credit crunch started), and Jim also thinks the Second Great Depression is possible.

Let's hope the politician's do not let us down over the weekend. We need a detailed plan - not statements.

[edit on 11-10-2008 by infinite]

I do not think anyone knows where the bottom is, and its probably better that way. I always say when these threads come up, that the bottom is zero, and it pisses people off.

Will be an interesting week, wonder what the g7 will do, to try to bring some joy to those traders, lol.

I've only just gotten up to speed with these goings-on relatively recently, but all I can pick out of the G7 meeting is nothing but statements.

Namely the one page statement with 5 agreements that they believe should be done - which from what I can surmise, only contains elements that have already been announced, such as buying up the bad assets.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has estimated losses from the credit crisis could reach $US1.4 trillion, or about double what banks have written down so far.

That would leave a gaping hole on balance sheets and restrict already tight lending.

"We should not imagine that we will have a harmonised response that will be the same for everyone, quite simply because you cannot apply the same method to market situations that are different," French Economy Minister Christine Lagarde said earlier.

www.abc.net.au...



[edit on 11-10-2008 by mattguy404]

Wow that does not sound good but I don't like Cramer so I won't listen to him however I do believe Lindsey Williams and he said when gas gets to $50 a barrel watch out. And I don't know what gas is now but it was around $70-$80 range so if Monday is a free fall then look for the price of a barrel of gas!

DK


edit is fixing my spelling i r not to good at that lolz

[edit on 11-10-2008 by tensetek]

It's not a strange idea black Monday will come as the G7 leaders did nothing more then a statement that they will do everything to for come more banks will melt down. No specific details or any plans were to find. This will definitely not help the stock exchange. If they don't come with a detailed plan or be more specific how they will handle this crisis, you will see what happens on Monday and upcoming days....

i think the term black (add every day of the last couple of weeks at least) is loosing its relavance

black friday etc were used to describe 1 day of mass screwups we need somthing different to cover this long and spiraling slope

Originally posted by noobfun
i think the term black (add every day of the last couple of weeks at least) is loosing its relavance

black friday etc were used to describe 1 day of mass screwups we need somthing different to cover this long and spiraling slope

How about saying that the world markets have
pushed the"Un Install" button...


by taking down the propped up valuations of stocks, businesses, et al...
we collectively are also bringing down the value of the toxic derivatives which are clogging up the corrupted system.

We are 'uninstalling' the old financial industry program which used a lot of fraud, excessive pay & bonuses, backscratching, housing bubbles, internet bubbles, credit bubbles, commodity bubbles, compensation bubbles, stock valuation bubbles, profit bubbles....etc etc
And throwing that 'program' out the window, and re-setting the benchmark to a pre-derivative world... which translates to the world prior to year 2002...
perhaps pre 9-11??

....dreamers, huh

Are you really going to put faith in a man who told you to buy Bear Stearns, that it was sound? Just before it went bust?
I think we may be nearing the bottom of this market, but I'm no expert. I think we are still up to our ccollective A$$es in alligators, but the swamp may be starting to drain a little.

Remember guys those on cnbc are trying to make money also, so he is using his influence, to get some sort of idea out there.

Perception, is what rules markets, and they are trying to make theres.

[edit on 11-10-2008 by duffster]

[edit on 11-10-2008 by duffster]

Well, since I decided to buy Fri I hope the Mkt does not crash further on Mon. I had sort been expecting this correction and been out for the most part since Jan. Two weeks ago I took position back in with about 20% and Fri another 10%.

reply to post by BlackProjects


It's statements like this that have made me giggle for some years when listening to "investors" talking about the stock markets - taking positions, going long/short, etc., etc. What you are really doing is gambling on a fake system. All the money that has been "lost" over the past few weeks and months was never there anyway. Normal people were convinced to exchange their cash for paper they have been told is worth something, and now we are seeing how much it is really worth.

If the share market goes up 20%, does that mean that 20% more cash has been created out of nothing? If it goes down 20%, does that mean that nothing disappeared anyway?

Once we all wake up that its all just bull# designed to get the middle classes to put their money into a scheme to make the ruling classes richer, we'll all be better off. Banks should not be able to lend multiples of their deposits, and currency should be tied to gold or some other valuable commodity. Once the "rules" are changed to allow people to create money from nowhere, its the start of a slippery slope that eventually comes unstuck.

I wish you the best with your "position", but by calling it that you're demonstrating that you've fallen victim to marketing that tries to convince you that you're doing something far more sophisticated than just gambling.

reply to post by Snappahead


An excellent summary of the situation.

If investors knew what they were doing, there wouldn't be this panic selling...

It's going long hedged with negative geared leveraged securities of derivative packages...

Or something.

Snappa,
I hear you..you are sorta preaching to the choir. Be it what it is the market is a long standing system that has in the long run been a method to generate cash. It is smoke and mirrors..
Pick almost any company..strong balance sheet or not odds are it dropped as much as the worst managed companies on verge of BK.
BP

Statements, statements and more statements.

That's what came out of the G7 meeting. Instead of unity, each nation has decided to do it's own thing, Germany refused to introduce a UK or US like bail out plan.

In fact, France and Germany fell out over a EU wide rescue deal.

Will there even be trading on Monday in the US? I thought we were on holiday. Or is Columbus Day the following week? Gotta love those ignorant, meaningless holidays. Considering North America had been discovered at least a half a dozen time before him, lol.

Originally posted by Contagion2012
Will there even be trading on Monday in the US? I thought we were on holiday. Or is Columbus Day the following week? Gotta love those ignorant, meaningless holidays. Considering North America had been discovered at least a half a dozen time before him, lol.

Monday is a holiday, but the markets will be open.

Monday is a Bank Holiday, the markets are open but the banks are closed. If there was ever a day for a market detonation...

As we are typing, British banks are raising capital either on their own or via the governments part-nationalisation scheme.

By Tuesday or Wednesday, we'll know how much of the UK banking system is government owned (reports suggest up to 30%)

Two points: (Petty maybe)

1. Banks will be as slow to declare losses as their balance sheets allow.

2. If I was predicting, I would say approx 6,000. Not 5886. This diviner really has no experience.

3. I am sick of black this black that. It is going to be a very Bloody Monday potentially, it is bright v blood, not black v white.