Major Hurricane Ike

Originally posted by Tentickles
I just enjoy the fact that I am right in the way of this one. Should be interesting since we havent had a good Storm in my area in afew weeks.

Are you on the coast?
If so, why are you staying?

ZIP codes for Harris County mandatory evac, starting at noon local time:
77058, 77059, 77062, 77520, 77546, 77571, 77586, 77598

[edit on 9/11/2008 by anachryon]

reply to post by anachryon


I'm that stuborn person you see on the news going "I've lived here too long to run from a Hurricane!!"

Honestly though, I haven't left my home for any nature related reason in the last 13 years.

reply to post by Tentickles


Fair enough. Are you at least in Houston proper - or otherwise inland enough that you won't get the storm surge? I hope so.

Hopefully you've got all your preparations done - stockpiles of water, bleach, nonperishables, tarps, maybe a generator, cash, a gun and plenty of ammo? Even if you're inland enough to avoid any surge, remember that Houston has a whole lot of trees and trees don't do so good in sustained hurricane force winds. They like to fall down and knock out power.

**********************

I have to run for a few hours. If anything notable happens with Ike, I would certainly appreciate someone posting updates - and judging from the U2Us I've been getting, I think others would appreciate updates as well.

Running out the door, but -

Galveston is FINALLY under mandatory evac as of a few min ago!!!!!!!!!! Now to hope everyone is able to get out.

reply to post by anachryon


The only thing I have to worry about at the moment are the enormously tall industrial power lines next to my house.

Not the wood pillars but the steel framework ones.

Boarding up now. Sixty miles inland from the coast, north of Matagorda Bay, Port Lavaca. WU gives us winds up to 75 mph in the forecast. Hope they are not underestimating.

I was told yesterday was chaos in the little towns at the food stores and gas stations. I suspect anyone headed out from the coast will have problems with fuel if it is needed.

Looks like we might end up just west of the eye but we all know how uncertain it can be.

Here is the latest on Ike:
Ike is still a minimal Cat 2 storm, with 100 mph winds, some are arguing that the winds are lower but the NHC refuses to put that in its public releases.
I believe that the NHC being influenced by politics a little to much because of the blame that was placed on the Feds after Katrina.. Anyway, that belongs in the conspiracy area, not here soo...

Here is an awesome HD satellite loop of Ike in action but its very large and not for the faint of heart, ie people on (dial up)

Ike loop

Source

Hurricane Ike's winds remain at Category 2 strength, but Ike is a freak storm with extreme destructive storm surge potential. Ike's pressure fell rapidly last night to 944 mb, but the hurricane did not respond to the pressure change by increasing its maximum winds in the eyewall. Instead, Ike responded by increasing the velocity of its winds away from the eyewall, over a huge stretch of the Gulf of Mexico. Another very unusual feature of Ike is the fact that the surface winds are much slower than the winds being measured aloft by the Hurricane Hunters. Winds at the surface may only be at Category 1 strength, even though Ike has a central pressure characteristic of a Category 3 or 4 storm. This very unusual structure makes forecasting the future intensity of Ike nearly impossible. The possibilities range from a Category 1 storm at landfall--as predicted by the HWRF model--to a Category 4 storm at landfall, as predicted by the GFDL. Ike is now larger than Katrina was, both in its radius of tropical storm force winds--275 miles--and in it radius of hurricane force winds--115 miles. For comparison, Katrina's tropical storm and hurricane force winds extended out 230 and 105 miles, respectively. Ike's huge wind field has put an extraordinarily large volume of ocean water in motion. When this swirling column of water hits the shallow waters of the Continental Shelf, it will be be forced up into a large storm surge which will probably rival the massive storm surge of Hurricane Carla of 1961. Carla was a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at landfall, and drove a 10 foot or higher storm surge to a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast. A maximum storm surge of 22 feet was recorded at Port Lavaca, Texas. Despite the fact that the center of Carla hit over 120 miles southwest of Houston, the hurricane drove a 15-foot storm surge into the bays along the south side of the city. I don't expect Ike will reach Category 4 strength, thus its maximum surge is not likely to reach the extreme values above 20 feet seen in Hurricane Carla. Like Carla, though, Ike will probably inundate a 180-mile stretch of Texas coast from Port O'Connor to just north of Galveston with a 10-15 foot storm surge. This will occur even if Ike is a Category 1 storm at landfall. The latest experimental storm surge forecast From NOAA's SLOSH model (Figure 1) shows a 10% chance that Ike's storm surge will exceed 15-21 feet at Galveston.

The models still point to a landfall in an area South of Houston, so I believe that Ive made the right decision to not waste valuable fuel, resources and time by evacuating out of Corpus.




[edit on 9/11/2008 by Kr0n0s]

Well, um, wow.

I'll let Dr. Masters say it like he does best - easy to understand and straight to the point.

According to the NOAA tide gauges, the storm tides along the Mississippi coast have peaked at 4 feet above normal, and are currently running 5 feet above normal on the east side of New Orleans at Shell Beach in Lake Borgne. A storm surge of 5.9 feet was observed in New Orleans' Industrial Canal at 10:45 am CDT, and 5.75 feet in Waveland, Mississippi. Coastal Alabama is reporting a 4-6 foot storm surge, with 10-15 foot waves. Considering the center of Ike is over 250 miles south of these locations, it is not hard to imagine that Texas will get a 15-20 foot storm surge, even if Ike does not strengthen.

Ike will probably inundate a 250-mile stretch of Texas coast from Port O'Connor to the Louisiana border with a 10-15 foot storm surge. This will occur even if Ike is a Category 1 storm at landfall. If Ike is a Category 3+ hurricane at landfall, surges of 20+ feet are possible. The latest experimental storm surge forecast From NOAA's SLOSH model (Figure 1) shows a 10% chance that Ike's storm surge will exceed 18-21 feet at Galveston. The Galveston sea wall is 17 feet high, so it may get overtopped. At noon today, a mandatory evacuation of the entire island was ordered in case this worst-case scenario is realized. The official NHC forecast is calling for maximum storm surge heights of 20 feet.

Dr Jeff Masters


And from the Galveston National Weather Service (link also posted in Dr. Masters' blog):

Life threatening inundation likely!
All neighborhoods... and possibly entire coastal communities... will be inundated during high tide. Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story homes will face certain death. Many residences of average construction directly on the coast will be destroyed. Widespread and devastating personal property damage is likely elsewhere. Vehicles left behind will likely be swept away. Numerous roads will be swamped... some may be washed away by the water. Entire flood prone coastal communities will be cutoff. Water levels may exceed 9 feet for more than a mile inland. Coastal residents in multi-story facilities risk being cutoff. Conditions will be worsened by battering waves. Such waves will exacerbate property damage... with massive destruction of homes... including those of block construction. Damage from beach erosion could take years to repair.

Galveston NWS


Here it is short and sweet from me:
If you're on the TX coast, get the bloody hell out NOW. Don't think "Oh, it's just a category 2 storm," don't get complacent. Get out of the way of this hurricane so you don't die.


I've just returned home and I need to get a feel for what else is going on with Ike. I'll return a little later with an analysis.

I don't think the seawall in Galveston is really going to be protection from a surge. AS I mentioned in an earlier post with links, even a 4.5 surge will flood Galveston Island from the bayside and if they are predicting 12, 15 20 foot surge then the whole island and causeway will be submerged not to mention Texas City and League City south of Houston.

Ike has become the beast storm of this hurricane season, and I think it's only fitting and proper to say that there's a good chance we may see his name retired.

I was amazed to wake up to find that the winds extend outward up to 275 miles, that's a massive storm, even if you pit him against Katrina. I am sad it's going for Houston though, means I'll be attending a toxic campus next year.

Ugh. I'm not on the Coast but Ike is set to give me a good beating, especially if he steers more to the WEst than is expected.

Wow this storm is huge!!! I remember watching Katrina grow to a Cat5 and the size of the storm which almost looked as if it took up the whole Gulf. This storm looks just out of this world. I almost cant believe it.

Everyone on the Texas coast should heed the warning to get out as quick as possible. From what the news is saying, the evacuations have been "more organized". Heres the thing though, even if it is organized even if you started at the time they issued the Mandatory evacuation you still might not have time to get out of the way of this GIGANTIC STORM.

If Ike starts to rapidly intensify than this could be a worse situation than Katrina ever was. I remember watching a documentory on what would happen if a Cat4 or Cat5 storm hit Houston and it wasn't pretty.

Anyway, this is getting to close to "deja vu" and I hope everyone can get out safely.

reply to post by Tentickles

The only thing I have to worry about at the moment are the enormously tall industrial power lines next to my house.

I truly hope you are not viewing this as excitement and or an adventure.
If you can't, you can't, but if you can and don't "que sera sera".

I hesitate to say this, given how Ike has been doing everything but what's expected...but I'll say it anyway.

Sat imagery has been showing what appears to be Ike entering a strengthening cycle.

His tiny inner eyewall has fallen apart and the larger, outer eyewall has taken over. If this eyewall holds it together (which it *appears* to be doing right now), it will be of a much more conducive size to allow Ike's massive girth to spin faster.
He's been firing some impressive convection over the past hour, and it appears that he's filling in his damaged western side very well. You can see the changes on this sat loop; the real bright red is the convection firing, and you can see the left side of the storm begin to match the size of the right side. Please note that this link updates every 1/2 hour, so what I'm seeing now won't be visible in another ~6 hours. In addition, the image will not update during sat eclipse tonight.
Wind gusts in the storm are becoming stronger than they've been since before his initial Cuba landfall.

In my non-professional opinion, these are signs indicating Ike may be entering a strengthening phase. As I said above, I'm hesitant to say that because Ike don't make a damn bit of sense, but that's what I see right now.

Anyone still in areas under mandatory evac: it's imperative that you get out tonight. You will not be able to safely evacuate in TS force winds. The winds will start tomorrow late morning/early afternoon and will just continue to get stronger. The storm surge will arrive ahead of the strongest winds, and this will not be the type of storm surge one normally sees with a cat 2 hurricane. This is potentially catastrophic, especially if Ike landfalls around high tide, which looks like a very real possibility.
If you choose to stay in a low lying, coastal area, please write your SSN and next of kin on your torso in permanent marker so your remains can be identified quickly.


[edit on 9/11/2008 by anachryon]

Ike:

Everyone on the Gulf coast better get out of this storms way with the quickness. I still am in AWWWW of the size of this thing. I saw some photos from freaking Florida and the tide looked like IT was being hit by this storm.

I am no weather expert but even I can see when I should get the hell out of dodge. If I was in New Orleans I would be leaving now and if I was even CLOSE to the coast of Texas I would be leaving NOW. Please, don't wait for it to be labeled a Cat3, Cat4, Cat5......whatever. It really doesn't matter at this point. The hurricane and tropical winds are sooooo extended from the eye you really need to understand this. Remember, Katrina was ONLY a Cat3 when it hit landfall and I think that was lucky. Katrina was just getting started. This thing could be in perfect position to form a new eye wall and intensify.

Great Pic Hellmutt.

Unbelievable.

[edit on 11-9-2008 by hoochymama]

[edit on 11-9-2008 by hoochymama]

There is something really fishy going on with Ike in my opinion. The conditions are favorable for development but something seems to be disrupting the center of circulation constantly. And despite being over the very warm Gulf waters the storm hasn't been able to develop a core of very tall/cold cloud tops around the center. Yet the storm keeps getting larger. This is about as big as they get.

Why?

I think the U.S. has been seeding Ike in an attempt to keep the strength down. There was an experiment run many years ago to determine whether seeding could weaken storms. It was said that at first it appeared the seeding worked. Then it was said the results were actually a result of an eye wall replacement cycle. I'm thinking it did work and the seeding is what caused the replacement cycle.

I think this storm is an example of what happens when a hurricane is seeded. It has kept the storm from rapidly intensifying despite being in conditions favorable for intensification. But you see the side effect which is a much larger storm. You may save Houston from wind damage but you may doom Galveston to severe damage from a much larger than normal surge due to the size of the storm.

I think Katrina was a storm that was manipulated possibly through seeding as well as the left side (side closest to New Orleans) was devastated in a matter of hours. Same thing happened to hurricane Floyd when it was threatening the Space Center on the east coast of Florida. No weakening was predicted and then the storm crashed suddently.

Messing with storms no matter what the justification is a terrible idea. We just don't know the harm we do.

Please note that storm surge is the most deadly and destructive part of a hurricane, and meteorologists predict over a 20-foot storm surge will move into Sabine Lake region.

-Surge maps, plus animated
-Tide gauges

Click the maps for full size:

[edit on 11-9-2008 by Regenmacher]

reply to post by Indy


I believe it is natural forces in effect.

The intensity guidance has come down since this morning...although
the GFDL still makes Ike a major hurricane. Factors inhibiting
development include the large broad wind field...strong winds over
areas of limited ocean heat content along and north of the path of
Ike...and an upper-level ridge over Texas that is forcing descent
and creating dry air ahead of the path of the hurricane. Indeed...
convection on the west side of Ike has been rather thin for much of
the day. However...this latter upper feature is forecast to slide
northeastward as Ike enters the northwestern Gulf...and in this
configuration would provide an upper pattern more conducive to
strengthening right before landfall. Currently the outflow is very
well established to the northeast and southwest of the center. The
official forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and is in
best agreement with the GFDL guidance.

Weather underground

Tomorrow might be a different story though.

Why would you evacuate for a CAT 2 Storm? Especially if u live inland like in Houston.....these evacuations funny...next thing you know officals are going to want you to evacuate for a CAT 1 storm...

[edit on 11-9-2008 by Goradd]