Major Hurricane Ike

reply to post by Kr0n0s


Hey KrOnOs

Is that typical along the South Texas coast? It seems city planners dropped the ball to me.
So your apt building is at sea level and only a 2 foot sea wall is protecting your immediate area. Wow.

edit to add CC is 27 feet above sea level
source


[edit on 10-9-2008 by Tuebor]

Here's a wicked video graphic from a Houston TV station that the Army Corps of Engineers created for Rita a few years back. It shows what happens at different storm surge levels to Galveston Island, League City and even the Johnson Space Center near Houston.

Worst case scenario is all is under water at about 22' surge.

video

Here's a pdf that clearly shows the surge comes from the backside of Galveston, not the seaside.

prtl.uhcl.edu...



[edit on 10-9-2008 by Tuebor]

A resident wades in a flooded area in Cuba’s Camaguey province, where one person was killed when a house collapsed. Three other deaths were also confirmed in Cuba. The hurricane has killed dozens in the Caribbean.(Javier Galeano / Associated Press)

Rain from Hurricane Ike douses rubble in Camaguey, Cuba. Some 900,000 Cubans evacuated from the storm's path. (Javier Galeano / Associated Press)

Cuban soldiers assist people evacuating flooded streets in Camaguey September 8, 2008. Strong winds howled in the streets of Havana and thousands huddled in shelters as Hurricane Ike made its second Cuban landfall on Tuesday on a path that began to look less threatening for the heart of U.S. oil production in the Gulf of Mexico. Picture taken on September 8, 2008. (Reuters)

Ike is rapidly intensifying since it left Cuba. Normally cyclones rarely get above cat 3 after encountering Cuba, but in this case Ike looks to be a pinhole hurricane and may reach a cat 4. Hurricane Wilma was also a pinhole hurricane and it went from tropical storm strength to Cat 5 within 24 hours.


Data source

Evening, storm watchers. I've had a busy couple days so haven't been able to do as much analysis as I'd wanted.

Now that I've (mostly) caught up with Ike....

Jumpin' baby Jesus, Ike is a beast. Seriously.
He jetted across Cuba and almost immediately popped out an eye. He's now carrying a well defined eyewall and maintaining low pressure. His winds may "only" be in the 80mph range, but at this point I think that's only because recon flights haven't reached him yet.
5am and 11am updates will be telling.

Ike's moving real, real slow right now; he's going to take a nice leisurely stroll right through the Loop Current, perhaps an eddy, and a bathtub full of hot water. With no significant shear to speak of in his way, he's got all the atmospheric reason to intensify quickly, possibly even bomb out during his stroll.

I had the Weather Channel on in the background earlier and Jim "Hurricane Magnet" Cantore was sounding kind of grim. He made the chilling, and very accurate, point that Ike looks to have the potential to rival Katrina's windfield. Where Ike was a compact storm in the Atlantic, his interaction with land has allowed him to "relax" and spread out. His TS windfield now has a diameter of 350 miles, while Katrina's was ~460 just before landfall. Ike is days from landfall and will continue to grow. No matter the exact point of landfall, he will cause damage for many miles around.

There is still some question as to Ike's steering. Right now his ultimate path is being decided by a high pressure system over Mexico and a low pressure trough over the Midwest. This is what is currently causing him to move so slowly; the high is blocking his westerly path and guiding him along in a general WNW motion. This high pressure is forecast to weaken, which will allow the low pressure system to the north to pick Ike up. We're kind of at a deciding point in regards to his steering; if Ike doesn't speed up, he's likely to be pulled in a more northerly fashion by the low pressure system sooner than currently forecast.
In simpler terms: there's a roadblock in Ike's way to his west and a magnetic pull to his north. The roadblock is strong enough right now to keep him from shooting straight north. Current track expects the roadblock to break down as Ike nears landfall, guiding him to the TX coast and then allowing him to take a sharp northern turn this weekend. IF Ike moves significantly more slowly than currently forecast, he may take a northerly turn sooner than landfall. Where this would put him is uncertain, but at this stage I still urge everyone from TX/MX to FL to keep a very close eye on Ike over the next 36 hours.

Oh good lord, sat blackout ended as I was typing. It looks like Ike may be going through another eyewall replacement cycle. That's not something you see every day on a cat 1 storm. That's also why his pressure is low but his winds haven't caught up yet. Today is going to be an interesting day for Ike. Expect a stronger storm and a larger windfield.

The models seem to be grouped near Corpus and they are expecting a cat 4 before landfall. CC should begin issuing evac orders in the am. A&M is talking about closing the campus. I was hoping I'd be outa here before the big one hit. It's about 350 miles wide now, Katrina was about 460 when she hit. It's a biggie and he's expected to continue to grow. Looks like he may stall out for a while, he's moving pretty slow.

5am:

85mph, pressure at 963mb. Recon obs moments ago reports 961mb.

Eyewall replacement cycle is confirmed. Once he completes the EWRC he'll begin to strengthen rapidly.

He's still moving quite slowly, only 8mph to the WNW.

Landfall is still expected on the TX coast late Friday/early Saturday as a major (cat 3+) hurricane.

TS Warning issued from the mouth of the MS river west to Cameron, LA.
Hurricane Watch from the LA/TX border to Brownsville, TX.
Evacuation orders have (finally) begun in coastal TX areas. Brazoria county: ZIP code 77541 is mandatory evac, remainder of county is voluntary; Galveston county: voluntary evac for Galveston Island; Jackson county: voluntary evac; Matagorda county: mandatory evac S of Hwy 35.

Ike was upgraded to cat 2 strength this afternoon and remains as such for the 5pm update. Winds at 100mph, pressure at 958mb. The windfield has grown to 410mi; Ike is rapidly approaching the size of Katrina though not yet the intensity.

Official track has shifted slightly north.

This crazy storm has developed a massive second eyewall. He just completed an EWRC this morning and it looks like he's trying for another. The new eyewall is currently about 100 miles across. This is going to cause Ike to increase in size even more and will spread his hurricane force winds even wider. If his existing central eye collapses, he'll go through another EWRC thus delaying his intensification.
This situation, as it stands now, is 6 of one, half dozen of the other in that either outcome could be real bad. An EWRC will delay intensification and possibly keep him to a low to mid end cat 3 at landfall, but it's going to allow Ike's windfield to expand wider, thus affecting more of the Gulf coast. If the outer eye doesn't succeed in taking over, Ike -shouldn't- expand in size so much but he'll be able to intensify much sooner, thus making a higher end cat 3 to mid cat 4 hurricane possible at landfall.

Recon flights are flying Ike now so more info should be coming in soon. They've already reported a pressure reading of 951mb, which is a significant drop.

reply to post by anachryon


Aransas County issued mandatory evac also, it is the next county over from mine, Nueces.
Contraflow on I-37 out of Corpus begins at 7 am Central tomorrow morning, this will be the first time theyve used contraflow here.
The tracks moving more north just reinforce my thoughts that it isnt coming here, my son is also happy because school has been canceled the rest of the week.
Hes planning a World of Warcraft marathon lol

reply to post by Kr0n0s


I'm hearing Galveston may change their tune tonight and start issuing mandatories. The steering conditions aren't changing as they'd been expected to.

FWIW, Jim Cantore will be broadcasting from the Galveston area Friday/Saturday, so I think the pucker factor is pretty high there right now.

(For those that don't know, the Weather Channel's Jim Cantore usually seems to be the one right at the landfall point of most big hurricanes. It's a running joke among weather geeks to run if you see Jim.)

Google earth live hurricane tracking....

enter this into your places or just open it with google earth

www.glooton.fr...

Galveston EOC has just said mandatory evacuation of Galv. Island is "impossible at this point" (from a logistics POV).

I don't know if we have any Galveston/Galveston area folks on ATS, but if we do...you probably ought to go ahead and bug out now. Seriously. Take an early weekend vacation to Austin, Katy...somewhere inland, and further inland than Houston.

Corpus Christi and Nueces County will not be issuing mandatory evacuations according to this article from the CC Caller Times.

CORPUS CHRISTI — County and city leaders are strongly recommending people on the islands and in low-lying, flood-prone areas of Nueces County evacuate to higher ground as soon as possible. A mandatory evacuation appeared unlikely Wednesday afternoon, County Judge Loyd Neal said. Calling for a mandatory evacuation triggers more drastic responses, he said. That could include businesses letting employers leave and having refineries, hospitals and health care operations relying only on essential personnel. "That's OK and we would do that if the storm (was heading here) more directly," he said. "It's obvious we're in harm's way," Neal said. "But we're on the periphery of harm's way. We're worried about flooding, about tropical storm winds, about special needs people who, if the electricity goes off, will have some serious health issues." Flanked Wednesday afternoon by elected and appointed city and county leaders, Neal and Corpus Christi Mayor Henry Garrett said they're taking the dangerous storm seriously, pleading for people to take necessary precautions to minimize personal injury and property damage.

source



[edit on 9/10/2008 by Kr0n0s]

Originally posted by anachryon
Galveston EOC has just said mandatory evacuation of Galv. Island is "impossible at this point" (from a logistics POV).

Who is EOC?

That's ridiculous. New Orleans did it just last week and they have a million more people than Galveston Island.

The highway(s ) out of Galveston can be one way. It's possible.

[edit on 10-9-2008 by Tuebor]

Galveston Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas and Jamaca Beach Mayor Victor Pierson announced the evacuation orders tonight for all of Galveston Island west of the western end of Galveston's famed seawall.
...
Thomas also said a voluntary evacuation is being urged for the main body of the city guarded by the seawall, as well as the mainland portion of the county. She says a mandatory evacuation, she said, "is the last thing we want to do" and "not possible" with the short notice left by the hurricane's late turn.

KSWO

You're doin' a heck of a job, Lyda.


Pressure's down to 944mb. Not a good sign, as it means Ike is intensifying very quickly. I shudder to think what will happen if his winds catch up with that pressure.

Originally posted by Tuebor
Who is EOC?

That's ridiculous. New Orleans did it just last week and they have a million more people than Galveston Island.

The highway(s ) out of Galveston can be one way. It's possible.

Emergency Operations Center....the folks responsible for keeping the residents safe and warning them of incoming danger.

Yes, it is ridiculous. I really think Galveston folks need to get the hell out of the way now. Per my post above, Ike is doing some strange and not so great things and I think it's going to be bad news for Galveston/Houston.

Originally posted by Kr0n0s
reply to post by anachryon

 

Aransas County issued mandatory evac also, it is the next county over from mine, Nueces.
Contraflow on I-37 out of Corpus begins at 7 am Central tomorrow morning, this will be the first time theyve used contraflow here.
The tracks moving more north just reinforce my thoughts that it isnt coming here, my son is also happy because school has been canceled the rest of the week.
Hes planning a World of Warcraft marathon lol

TxDOT cancels contra-flow evacuation on I-37
www.caller.com...

I live in Sugar Land, TX. We are just south west of Houston.

I am waiting on the 10pm central advisory. We have one county between us and the gulf.

If you live on a coastal county from Corpus Christi to the TX/LA border, THIS IS THE LAST CHANCE you have to GET OUT before everybody in the next tier of counties hit the road.

Houston alone has over 1 million souls. Over 3 million in the metro. If you are going to leave, no time is better then right this second.

The worst of it will be between 6pm Friday and 6pm Saturday. Thats not the whole storm, just the worst of it.

We have wood and it is going on the windows Friday morning.

The storm, predicted it hit just north east of Port O'Conner, is expected to cause 74mph winds in Spring and tropical storm winds in Humble. That is a MASSIVE distance from the eye.

Fort Bend and Harris counties (Houston) are forcasted to receive winds from 74-100mph SUSTAINED.

Whatever you are going to do to get ready, start doing it RIGHT THIS SECOND.

You know what the stores will look like tomorrow.

Good luck. Some of us may be without power for some time so don't panic if you don't hear from us for awhile.

FYI;

Tropical Depression winds less then 39mph (about 29-39mph
Tropical Storm winds 39-73mph

Hurricane
Cat 1 winds 74-95mph
Cat 2 96-110
Cat 3 111-130
Cat 4 131-155
Cat 5 156+

Tornado Winds Scale
F0 40-72mph
F1 73-112
F2 113-157
F3 158-206
F4 207-260
F5 261-318
F6 319-379

Ike intensifying explosively

Hurricane Ike is intensifying dramatically. The central pressure has dropped 11 mb in just four hours, and stood at 947 mb at 7 pm EDT. The latest Hurricane Hunter data show that the pressure is continuing to fall at a rapid pace. The winds have not caught up yet to the pressure fall, and remain at Category 2 strength. The satellite presentation of the hurricane has improved markedly, as Ike has walled off the dry air that was bothering it, and has built a solid eyewall of 9 miles diameter of very intense thunderstorms. The appearance of Ike on infrared satellite loops is similar to Hurricane Wilma during its rapid intensification phase, when Wilma became the strongest hurricane on record. Like Wilma, Ike has a very tiny "pinhole" eye, but the storm is huge in size. Ike has a long way to go to match Wilma, but I expect Ike will be at least a Category 3 hurricane by morning, and probably a Category 4.

Dr Jeff Masters

Most updated pressure is down to 941mb.

Things have gotten very serious with Ike this evening, and I think it's only going to get worse. I can't stress enough that those in low lying coastal TX areas really need to think seriously about moving inland now, and by now I mean tonight or very, very early tomorrow. Houston if that's the best you can do, but somewhere like Austin would be better.


Speaking of Jim Cantore, he did a short telephone interview with the mayor of Galveston a few minutes ago. She sounded like a blithering idiot and Jim's facial expression indicated he thought so too. She basically repeated what was already posted here about there not being enough time to evacuate all of Galveston and that effectively the island wasn't at enough of a risk to justify a full evac. WHAT?!??

EDIT: typo

[edit on 9/10/2008 by anachryon]

NOAA track today has had it heading right at us. Although we are North of Port Lavaca, fortunately we are 50 miles inland. The storm has been on a NW course and I think it will end up between here and Houston, somewhere around Sargent or Freeport. NOAA track has a cat 2 marker sitting right on our location but I am hoping for a change.

Waiting for the morning position as I believe that will tell whether the Northerly turn is going to happen before landfall.

I've gone though Carla, Alicia and Allison but this one might be the roughest.