Major Hurricane Ike

My in-laws live in the Matagorda Bay area. I'm driving over there to help move them to our home. When Rita came through the area three years ago we hosted about 15 people from the storm.

I'm about to go stock up on a few supplies in a bit.

reply to post by maria_stardust


Just saw a mandatory evac for Matagorda county on the news. I think we may be spared a bit.

Rita was a mess out here with people leaving the coast and Houston. My neighbors sent their wives and kids to east Texas to stay with the parent. Rita ended up plowing right through that part of east Texas. Go figure.

Its almost funny to me that this thread hardly gets any attention. It seems allot of posters are looking at it but not flagging it. Just a couple weeks ago when a Major Hurricane (Gustav) threatened La there were many more posters interested.

This Hurricane will be much worse than Gustav or even Rita. The size and scope of this storm is almost unbelievable. La was lucky Rita didn't hit at a Cat5. That storm almost took up almost the whole Gulf. This storm looks just like it.

The major problem I see is the chance for such a rapid increase of strength and the way Texan's are almost DARING this storm to threaten them. They better get out of the way with the quickness. This thing is almost in the "Out of Control" stage.

The reports in this thread from the experts seem to lead me to believe its just a matter of time that this storm becomes atleast a Cat4. If this storm reaches Galvistine and there is no Mandatory evacuation than this could be really bad.

I don't know, I just think this thread is very important just to get the updates from people on here who know alot about this stuff.

reply to post by hoochymama

That is because it isn't hitting New Orleans so the MSM doesn't give a damm...they want blood and guts and people walking in waist high water carrying babies yadda yadda...

reply to post by hoochymama


Even though the pressure is at 940'sh range, which usually computes to a Cat 3 or 4 storm, there is a lot of dry air and a bit of wind shear inhibiting Ikes intensification right now.
Every update the say that the wind will catch up to the pressure and intensify and it very well may do that but right now they are back down to calling a Cat 3 landfall, down from Cat 4 earlier.
I believe this thread has sufficient interest, over 100 replies so far and it hasnt even made landfall yet but not everyone on this board lives on the Gulf Coast.

I have two major interests in hurricanes, not counting me being awed by their power.
I live in Corpus Christi, which is on the Gulf of Mexico
and I am a catastrophic claims adjuster.
Those are the reasons why im here.
Not everyone has the same interests but trust me, if this hits Houston/Galveston as a high Cat 4 with a 20+ storm surge , more and
more will become interested.
You know, like some people are with bad car wrecks...
OMG its HORRIBLE but i cant stop looking

Heres the 3 day track, which has moved considerably north, away from me.

reply to post by Kr0n0s

For some reason I have a bad feeling those computer models are waaaay off on this one... and by the time they realize it is going for Louisana afterall it will be too late to get people out of there...i just don't trust these stroms anymore...saw what Andrew dd and Rita, they are just unpredictable as hell when they get so close to land anything can happen.

I wish they would evac people out of south Louisana anyway, better safe than sorry.

Here's the most recent satellite picture of Ike.


IR Channel 4:

reply to post by Kr0n0s


Just a side note: Rita, even at a Cat3 when it hit, was such a HUGE storm it wiped out more than just La. The only reason it hit at a Cat3 from what I remember is because it was undergoing a EWRC at them time of land fall.

This just looks like a killer storm with many people in its path.

The experts in this thread are pointing out though that there is not much wind shear to tear this storm apart. That is the thing that worries me.

I don't live anywhere close to Hurricane country, but still, lessons need to be learned.

reply to post by hoochymama

look at it, it doesn't seem to be turning west like they are predicting.
it just keeps getting closer and clsoer to Louisana.

reply to post by hoochymama


I'll be honest, I'm surprised as well. Ike is a serious storm, and I've been trying to get that point across in my posts without resorting to screaming "PANIC!!!" from the rooftops.

People need to remember how much of our oil is handled through the general danger area. We released some from the strategic reserve for Gustav; I don't know if we can release enough to mitigate any damage Ike may do in coming days.

Even if you don't live in coastal TX, everyone in the US needs to be concerned about Ike.

reply to post by anachryon

i'm screaming PANIC from the rooftop but no one in south Louisana is listening to me! they came and stayed with me for Gustav and now feel like they will be ok for Ike but i am scared of this one....
gut feeling...can't sleep....

reply to post by hoochymama


I know much about Rita, I was setting in a darkened hotel room 40 miles from where she made landfall so I know much about her power and what she did but this is an entirely different storm.
3 days before landfall Rita had 175 mph winds, this one has 100, Rita didnt have any shear or dry air to contend with, this one does but it isnt so much the shear thats hurting Ike, its the dry air thats been eating at his eye wall all day.
If and when he overcomes that and I think he will, he will intensify much faster than what he has been.
All other conditions are ripe for strengthening, low pressure and very warm waters, well just have to wait and see if he overcomes it fast enough because hes running out of ocean.

[edit on 9/11/2008 by Kr0n0s]

People are getting conditioned with so many hurricaines comeing and sputtering out (with nothing real horrific yet this year) so they relax and will get caught off guard .

This is supposed to come right up our way here in North Texas isnt it >?
During Rita we had relatives come from Beaumont and the storm ended up ripping right along the side of our area within about 20 miles away they were without lights for miles and miles and towns and towns ..for days .. .We just got some winds and rain .
I will let you know what happens when it gets to me if it does ..

The only problem I have is the pressure is sooo low and this storm is sooo big that even at Cat3 the size of it will effect a greater area. There is a drought going on in most of the US not just Florida or Texas but California as well. Flash floods are the danger in this storm and it isn't even reported because like a earlier poster said La isn't threatened (yet).

This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone as this storm has been tracked since the get go. This thread, if reports were that this storm was predicted to hit La, would have way more interest than it does now. My gut feeling is that no one really knows how BIG this storm can get and WHERE it is going to eventially land.

This is the main problem with Hurricanes this size.

Pressure is up 2 mb, to 946 and wind is still at 100 mph but he has now started his W/NW track..
No link yet, it was just on the news though.

New poster here. Always been a lurker... Finnally got into something I think I can put my $.02 into. Maybe! I just drove nearly 20 hours in the last 36 to get my 5 year-old from Corpus. My husband and I are relocating down there from southern Oklahoma. He has been down there since July in our 31' travel trailer. On Laguna Madre Bay. I'm up here trying to get our house sold. (almost there!) He called me at 11 a.m on Tuesday and told me I needed to get down there for our son. At that point it was looking pretty scary for Corpus. We don't know anyone there and have no family 'down there.' His job involves him having to stay in a situation like this because it involves directing engineering of a hospital. Good thing its a small hospital. This is his 2nd experience working with the emergency management stuff (DOLLY), and he's not too happy with how things are going. They're hollering "EVACUATION!" at one point and then its 'Yeah, we'll get you a FEMA bus there sometime.." But I try and look at things like that we're only human...we're not God, and we cant tell where the freakin' hurricanes gonna go! Anyway. Moved the trailer inland this morning.(wed. now!) KUDOS to the Padre Palms/Greyhound RV Parks letting us do it at no charge! Hope I'm not doing something wrong by saying that. It just helped us a lot.! Picked up the kid from kindergarten early at Flour Bluff. ( under the reason for leaving I wrote IKE) and headed north. Anyway traffic on I37N was busier than I had ever seen it. I can't say I've had very much experience with it though.. Hubby called @10:30pm and said he thought he would be able to go home (the travel trailer) and get some sleep, but where did we move it to..?? Never a dull moment here! Anyway here its 1AM cst and I finally got my 5-year to sleep. Too many hours in the car, he was hyped up for a while... All I can say is Ike has already been an experience for me ( a HILLBILLY OKIE). But I am still looking forward to moving to the Coastal Bend. Beautiful. Take care kronos and dark elf. The last I heard its looking a little better for us. And my Hubby, he's planning on riding it out at his hospital.

reply to post by somethingoriginal???


Hi there! I'm sorry we're "meeting" on such crummy terms. I lurked here at ATS for quite a long time before joining too; I hope you'll find enough to keep you around and posting after Ike is long gone!

I'm hoping for the best for you & your family. The way Ike's been behaving, I wouldn't call Corpus out of danger, but at least right now it looks like the city will be spared a direct eyewall hit.

Please understand that Ike's hurricane force winds extend 115 miles from the center and tropical storm winds extend 230 miles. These numbers can very well grow even larger over the next ~48 hours before landfall. You did exactly the right thing by going to get your little boy, and while your husband may experience strong winds, he should be safe enough in the hospital. Just make sure he knows not to spend any time in the travel trailer during the storm, even if it hits 100 miles away!!

***********

On to Ike himself. Seriously, I don't think anyone quite knows what to make of this storm. He's been carrying concentric eyewalls all day long and is most likely still carrying them. I say "most likely" because, while sat images show both eyewalls, recon flights haven't officially documented them on their most recent runs.
Sustained winds are still in the 100mph range (supported by recon - 105mph), pressure has been hovering in the mid 945s.
He's liking something in the waters right now as he's been firing up some massive convection over the last couple hours. There is some thought that Ike has been undergoing a massive EWRC for the past 10 hours or so. With an outer eyewall of 100 miles and a wee tiny inner eyewall of ~8, this is a process that can take some time. Admittedly there isn't much precedence for an Atlantic storm carrying a 100 mile eyewall so there's a lot of "educated guesswork" going on here. This is some Pacific typhoon stuff, I tell you what.

Ike is coming into the reach of some buoys. The nearest one is already showing 22' waves....and Ike is still 200 miles away. Let that serve as a reminder that no matter what the current wind speed is, Ike is a massive storm pushing a massive amount of water and will cause a whole lot of damage when he finally makes it to land.

5am update is due soon and I don't expect any major changes. 11am may be a different story.

As expected, the 5am shows...well, no change. Some interesting notes from the discussion though:

IKE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SOME UNUSUAL STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS. DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY IS STILL NEAR 85 KT...WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY LOW FOR THE REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE LATTER VALUE...946 MB...WOULD NORMALLY CORRESPOND TO A BORDERLINE CATEGORY 3/4 HURRICANE.
HOWEVER IT CONTINUES TO HAVE A SMALL INNER CORE WITH AN EYE JUST UNDER 10 N MI IN DIAMETER. THERE HAS BEEN A DOUBLE WIND MAXIMUM...ALTHOUGH HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE OUTER WIND BAND IS BEGINNING TO CONTRACT.

Wind maximum is techno mumbo jumbo for eyewall, essentially. I've bolded the important part: the larger (outer) eyewall "contracting" shows that the storm is replacing its super tiny inner eye with one large enough to support the size of the storm.

This is a very bizarre storm and it looks like the NHC agrees.

Hurricane force winds are at 115mi from center, TS winds at 255 miles. That is massive!!

Track is unchanged at this time.

Today should be an interesting day for Ike. I think he's getting his eyewall situation under control, which would allow for intensification.

Ike is now larger in size (not intensity, just sheer size) than Katrina. I realized he'd passed the mark shortly after I posted earlier, but couldn't edit the post due to ATS being down.

The northern Gulf coast is already feeling Ike's effects. Tidal surges are massive thanks to the wall of water he's pushing; roads are flooded over in low lying areas from MS to FL.
Think about that for a second. Ike is ~300 miles south and he's pushing so much water that tides are 5' or so above normal.

Tidal surges as high or higher are expected in coastal LA areas later today.

Cameron Parish in LA (on the LA/TX border) is under mandatory evacuation. Take note, Galveston.
Jefferson, Orange, San Patricio, and low-lying Harris (Houston is in Harris county!) counties in TX are now under mandatory evacuation. Take note, Galveston.

I just enjoy the fact that I am right in the way of this one. Should be interesting since we havent had a good Storm in my area in afew weeks.