An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

Originally posted by space cadet
I am probably way off with this, but I couldn't help but notice the 'circle' on the map, and what is in the middle of it.

[edit on 14-9-2008 by space cadet]

I have noticed the same thing for a while now, there are a lot of "circle" patterns from quakes, and I am sooooo glad you did more research than me, because I never knew about the old volcanoes..... I just noticed the circles, and never went any further than that.


NICE WORK!! I really hope this doesnt mean all the volcanic and geothermal activity is from old "dormant????" volcanoes being sturred awake from lavaflow through all the channels in the earth's crust.

I will have to look into this a little more than before....
At least I know that I am not the only one who noticed the circles.....

Mountain Dog, you may be reacting to this starting up again:

Magnitude 5.2 - ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA
2008 September 15 05:41:48 UTC

I've noticed my ears feeling pressured and popping again too.

Damntheptb, you and your wife's experiences with the hot flashes sound exactly like our's. It started about a month ago, maybe a bit longer, and it seems to begin every evening around dark, although there have been some during the day, it seems most intense at night. And it definitely has nothing to do with the ambient temperatures around us. Temps have been in the 80's here this past week and 50's at night. My bf and I both had them when the Reno EQ swarm was in full swing, and that's when we both noticed them for the first time, but they since faded away until recently again.

You'll be sitting there feeling fine, then all of a sudden you'll start to feel flushed and you can feel the heat moving up to your head and it'll last about 30 seconds or so. And most times, as you mentioned, a wave of sudden nausea will accompany these hot flashes. My bf and I have been comparing notes and nearly every time, we will both get these hot flashes at the exact same time, with the wave of nausea, which passes when the heat does. It's very strange. We've also noticed that sometimes for nights on end, we can't sleep, even if we're physically exhausted from hiking or yard work, and our legs are restless and uncomfortable with a buzzing feeling. It seems somehow connected to these hot flashes. And I wonder if it's all not connected to all the geothermal activity in the west/Pacific? I still believe the Reno EQ swarm was somehow connected to geothermal activity.

SpaceCadet, good work on those "rings" of EQs. Damntheptb has been pointing them out to me for some time. Many times I'll Google the area where there are micro EQ's and it'll turn out there are hot springs there or very nearby, or a known dormant volcano, etc. It also helps to check the seismic history page too, to get a feel for just how rare or not swarms in that area are.

If you look at the USGS maps, all the geothermal areas in the west are very active lately. I can't help but feel that something is building in the west/Pacific.

Edit to add: This page is interesting, as it lists the dormant and extinct volcanoes of the western U.S.

users.bendnet.com...

[edit on 9/15/08 by kattraxx]

One you don't see very day, even though this area is relatively seismic.

Magnitude 4.8 - LAKE TANGANYIKA REGION, TANZANIA
2008 September 15 15:50:51 UTC

The Great Rift Valley is Africa's most active geological region. The complex of rifts, volcanoes and hot springs runs from the Middle East, through the whole of the Red Sea, into Ethiopia, East Africa's great lakes and to Mozambique. The large rift already has separated the Arabian peninsula from Africa and within some million years is expected to separate East Africa and the Horn from the rest of the continent.

/African-drift

[edit on 9/15/08 by kattraxx]

Magnitude 4.4 - OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON
2008 September 16 09:42:01 UTC

The following page is helpful if you're trying to match up clusters of EQ's with volcanic areas, as it lists not just the active, but also the dormant and extinct volcanoes.

users.bendnet.com...

Hello all! I just wanted to post tonight that I am soooo clumsy and speech is even slurred tonight, very foggy thinking. My legs are heavy and my chest hurts, like my heart hurts.

I also wanted to say that I wasn't aware until backreading on here that hot flashes were are part of precursors. Hot flashes are another reason I ran to the doctor recently, she thought I might be pre menapausal and gave me some hormones, well, she was wrong. I don't want to elaborate here what taking hormones when you don't need them does to you, but it only took a week and I knew that I definately do NOT need them. So I was left with absolutely no expaination for the hot flashes, the doc even ordered a test for hypothyroid problems thinking that might be why. Amazing.

Seeing a sky full of linear clouds tonight. I have a lower back of the head, headache. Ears rings, low tone and high tone. Still clumsy too, like my feet are too big!

I have an enormous amount of pressure in my head tonight, ears ringing and popping, sounds like air rushing past my ears. My legs are heavy, and my upper abdomen is bloated, pain under my right ribs. I just checked out the usgs site for current activity, and was suprised to see that there isn't much of anything going on right now:

edit to post image/over and over, lol!



[edit on 21-9-2008 by space cadet]

[edit on 21-9-2008 by space cadet]

[edit on 21-9-2008 by space cadet]

Again tonight, a lack of the activity that we are all used to seeing on here:






I hope the pressure is not building for a big one!

Originally posted by space cadet
Again tonight, a lack of the activity that we are all used to seeing on here..


I hope the pressure is not building for a big one!

Hi Space Cadet,

I know what you mean... I've been watching the maps as always and it's been so sooo quiet lately -- much quieter than on average, at least. I have no "indications" for anything major being imminent but if anyone else has I hope they'll post some details.

Hi all. Have you guys been hearing the various predictions for a mag +9.0 earthquake in the Pacific NW soon... in the area of the Juan de Fuca ridge? All of a sudden, these predictions are everywhere. I believe one source is halfpasthuman.com.

Space Cadet, we took photos of linear clouds covering the morning sky a few days ago. They reminded me of those photos taken over or near China before that huge EQ-- rows and rows of linear clouds lined up across the western sky.

external image

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Hey Kat, I subscribe to half-past-human...

and yes, they are one of a few predicting a quake up here in the PNW... IF it's anything like they say it's going to be, we are in alot of trouble.

-a compression wave that makes people lose hearing
-hundreds of miles of land that liquefies.
-changed weather patterns
-crust upheaval.
- lightning storms.. lightning coming off of higher structures because of underground rock sheer.
- 9.2 at or above 22kms (that still blows me away)


oh.. and HPH says there will more than likely be 2 earthquakes.

if you guys are interested in the recent predictions (PNW EQ related) from them, lemme know... I will send ya the clipping.

oh also I wanted to add... since that swarm up van isle has stopped, so have the ringing in my ears. wife doesn't seem to have the "electric" legs.

it's all too quiet...

cept for this:

M 6.3, off the coast of Colima, Mexico

Date:
Wednesday, September 24, 2008 02:33:05 UTC
Tuesday, September 23, 2008 07:33:05 PM at epicenter
Depth:
10.00 km (6.21 mi)

Good morning all, its wedensday the 24th,

I just wanted to say that I too feel that everything is ALL TOO QUIET. I havent had any symptoms or "electric leg" (I LOVE THAT DESCRIPTION), and there is a lot of buzz about a large series of events that will happen in the month of october, continuing through the end of the year, and the main thing talked about is a LARGE magnitude EQ on the west coast, specifically the Pacific North West.
I know the doomsayers always have said this, but I am picking up on a lot more of the same kind of predictions, from many sources... Some I know better than to believe like scorcha, but the web bots and other think tank predictions all have a lot of overlapping colamities in the first week or 2 of October, and the end result will be an extended period of time of great sadness and a "new way of life to keep living".
The economic meltdown has opened a lot of doorways to the unknown, and god help us if we experience a major catastrophy, We will have a lot of major issues to deal with, and if the economy fails, and we are hit by something major, than hopefully we will be able to safely group up, and survive...
I dont beleive it is an "end-game", as no matter how bad it gets, i will push on through for my familys survival.

Okay, well now that I am totally freaked out (guess where I am right now?) I read on urbansurvival.com that a huge earthquake was predicted by the Webbot for Dec 12. Is this the date you're referring to?

I also read that the Webbot is also predicting something huge is going to happen (11 times bigger than 9-11) on Oct 7... I guess if that happens I'll be asking all my friends and family to leave the PNW in December.

Pynner, I'd love to see that clipping.

Kattraxx, thanks for posting those cloud photos - very interesting.

Looking forward to getting back to being safe and sound on my mountain!

Ok MD, I will send you the clipping..

and the dates that hph are putting out there for the quake are dec 10-12th.

Ummmm... Guys, hate to be a wet blanket but I've heard nothing about this 9.2 Mag quake and frankly have my doubts that it'll happen. Okay, the Juan de Fuca fault junction is a trouble spot and as I've said ages ago back in this thread, it will let go one day and could well be around a mag 9, but right now I have no indications. Fair enough, I'm just one voice and I only pick up on things within about a week to maybe ten-day window anyway, so if others can get a fix on a quake beyond that then hats off to them. But I have my doubts.

I'd love some more info though. Pynner, could you oblige and contact me? Or someone else? Please?

I'll have to reread Pynner's post that mentioned compression waves and so on and do a reply to it point-by-point.

Mike

Thanks very much, Mike. I always enjoy reading your posts.

Pynner, thanks! Can't send you a U2U because I don't have 20 posts yet.

Ok.... sent the clipping to you JM.
also, on coast to coast am last sunday they had the guys from half past human on and explained the process and stuff really well..

Originally posted by pynner
half-past-human... are one of a few predicting a quake up here in the PNW... IF it's anything like they say it's going to be, we are in alot of trouble.

-a compression wave that makes people lose hearing
-hundreds of miles of land that liquefies.
-changed weather patterns
-crust upheaval.
- lightning storms.. lightning coming off of higher structures because of underground rock sheer.
- 9.2 at or above 22kms (that still blows me away)

oh.. and HPH says there will more than likely be 2 earthquakes.

Hi Pynner,

I know you're only the "messenger" so don't worry, I'm not shooting at you! But like I said in my other post I've got my doubts on this one... I saw from another post of yours that they're predicting around Dec 12? That's a fair ways off, so do they say what their basis is? I mean, statistically this is a once-in-decades magnitude quake they're talking about. Mag nines are very very rare (thank goodness).

To the points mentioned:
"A compression wave that makes people lose hearing."
I assume they mean a concussion wave? I'm not sure how a compression wave could have the effects they indicate. I'm also not sure how either a compression or concussion wave could be generated on the sea floor, miles from land, that would seriously affect the hearing of humans. The Juan de Fuca fault region that's going to let go one of these days is under the sea, and all that water would deaden any such possible deafness-causing effects.

"Hundreds of miles of land that liquefies." Hundreds of miles of near-coastal low-lying land would likely get very wet, but liquefy? No. Again, the quake's epicentre would be in the sea -- on the sea floor, that is -- and although there will be seismic waves of several types that will radiate out from it, the land along the coast is not uniform and much of it is simply incapable of liquefying. Beach areas may well be badly affected as many are semi-liquid "land" already, but we don't build houses on beaches below the reach of the tides so that's not a problem. Back away from the beaches, some areas could liquefy if the soil strata are of the "right" consistency. They need to be sandy but not just any mix. There are limits. If they are more clay-based or simply rock, then they can't liquefy. Just not possible. Not denying they could get a hell of a shaking with scarily high ground-acceleration speeds that topple structures, but the ground itself won't liquefy unless it's of a type that can.

"Changed weather patterns." It's known that weather can be affected by quakes, yes. This is due to electro-magnetic radiation release, such a peizo-electric effects. (See below under "lightning".) But changed weather patterns implies more than short-term changes just prior to or post quake. It suggests long-term effects. I'd like to know what quake activity could cause long-term effects because I've never heard of any.

"Crust upheaval." The plate junction (Juan de Fuca/Nth American plates) is a subduction zone, so if the big one happens then the Juan d. will take a lurch and move under the Nth Am like it's done before. Besides the crust changes in situ, this could cause upheavals elsewhere, even many miles away. How dramatic they may be is hard to say. Inches or feet? We don't really know with a great degree of accuracy. We do know that the mountains in Oregon and along that line were formed partly due to the Juan d's subduction under the Nth Amer. plate.

"Lightning storms.. lightning coming off of higher structures because of underground rock sheer." This could well happen if there are associated and very strong seismic movements that are near structures on land, yes. I understand they're caused by piezo-electric effects and that they can be quite dramatic. Frankly the possible lightining would be the least of my worries. I'd be worried about collapsing buildings.

"9.2 at or above 22kms (that still blows me away)." 22 kms is only about 14 miles away, so if the quake is a seriously big 9-plus, then it will likely still feel about the same from so close to the epicentre. Put it this way: I wouldn't want to be within 14 miles of a mag-9's epicentre!

"oh.. and HPH says there will more than likely be 2 earthquakes." Yep, no surprises there. After a mag nine, you can expect hundreds (if not thousands) of aftershocks and some could be quite large -- maybe only one or two magnitudes less. (Viz the "Asian Tsunami" quake in 2004.)

Overall: they're pretty right on some factors but dubious on others, especially the "liquefaction" and "compression waves" stuff.

Did they mention the tsunami that would likely follow a mag nine on that fault line, by the way? Maybe I missed it, but that's how we know the date the last big one occurred there (on 26 Jan 1700), because of the tsunami it produced. It was recorded in Japan. The tsunami is potentially the single most dangerous element of such an event on the Juan d/Nth Amer fault junction. It could be over thirty feet high -- like the last one was.

I'm hoping they are wrong on this. Having seen what's happened after hurricanes Katrina and Ike, I don't think the US emergency services are really up to handling something that would potentially be far more destructive than they were.

Mike