An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

Originally posted by kattraxx

I expect more in this area too. I've been getting one of the precursors all morning. You, damntheptb?

YES, off the coast of oregon aqre the symptoms i am feeling as well, especially popping and pressure in ears.

I just want to say that I have noticed a lot of patterns in the US and world with recent quakes, and they dont look promising, I cant prove anything yet of course, but i feel that we are going to undergo a lot of larger quakes throughout the world, especially areas not hit lately

I'm getting a USGS email alert for Vancouver Island EQ's about every minute, at least over 4.0.

I hope Mountain Dog and his daughter are off the island now.

[edit on 8/28/08 by kattraxx]

Hi from Vancouver Island!

Everything is quiet here in Victoria, earthquake-wise, on the southern part of the island. The local paper had a front page article about all the quakes and the scientist who was interviewed said there is nothing for anyone to worry about! That was before the 6.1 this early this morning which has now been downgraded to a 5.8...

www.canada.com...

I'm here til Saturday, and will keep you posted if anything exciting happens



PS kattraxx, mountaindog is a she

yeah, I see that those van isle ones are going at a good clip now.... also, I see that the area off of oregon is going now.. top n bottom... every one on the west coast should be prep'd

also, im sure MD and daughter are ok.. you can't feel any of the quakes that are happening.. and the north island barley has any population... they will be ok

the island is it's own "plate"

I have to say, I never thought about me getting "precursors", but my ears are ringing and popping like nuts... infact, it's usually about 30 mins after (a quake) that I get a ringing.

right now my left ear is kinda ringing so I will see how long it takes for another EQ to pop up.

oh and further to MD's thing about the news around here... it's total BS.. nothing to worry about? are you kidding me? they should be using this to get people ready... and quick.





[edit on 28-8-2008 by pynner]

[edit on 28-8-2008 by pynner]

Hi folks, this post will be "bits and pieces" because several members have said interesting and important things and I'd like to add my comments if I may.

Kattrax -- I recall that 3.5 Nevada quake you mentioned, and yes it has disappeared from the map. Even though by now I guess we have gotten used to this kind of thing it doesn't make me feel any easier, so how you and others within that region feel about I can't imagine. I'll simply reassert what I said some time back: the USGS appears to be systematically concealing scientific information and data, which should be freely available, and hence are misusing the tax dollars being paid by you and other Americans. But it's not only the misuse of funds that is disturbing, it's the "why". What is their agenda? It certainly isn't to provide unbiased and accurate data about seismic events.

Pynner, Damntheptb (and others) -- regarding the "get out now" feeling. I understand exactly what you mean and my own opinion is that it basically falls into the category of precognition. Now, there are some skeptics who will mercilessly criticize anyone who speaks of "precognition" as a fact, arguing that it is "impossible" for us to have any kind of forewarning of impending events that cannot be detected by "normal" means. My argument against the skeptics is quite simple. Firstly, the perception of what is "normal" varies not only from place to place -- both culturally and scientifically -- but also according to the times people are living in. "Normalcy" is entirely subjective and not valid as an argument against precognition in any case; it matters not a whit to me if my own pre-cognitive abilities are "normal" or not, all that concerns me is their level of effectiveness -- or accuracy, if you will. My predictions on this thread have all contained an element of precognition, but in respect of trying to predict seismic activity that ability on its own will generally not be sufficient without gleaning some knowledge of the subject so that we can sort the wheat from the chaff more effectively.

The second point is that just because we may not have solid, scientific explanations for precognition at the present time, that in itself is not a valid argument for stating that precognition doesn't exist. It's my belief that much of what I perceive precognitively may well have a very simple physical/physiological basis, but that as yet research (or even the right machines) are lacking to validate its existence and the causative mechanisms. To give a practical example, just because I cannot hear sounds or see light outside of a certain range of frequencies or spectra doesn't mean that they don't exist, but in these cases we have machines that are able to detect them and present them in a form that we can perceive. It could well be, therefore, that we humans, like some animals like dogs, cats and even elephants, have other sensory capabilities that are detecting forms of energy that are released pre-quake. I am not referring just to detecting sounds beyond the normal range of hearing, but (for example) geo-magnetic "bursts" of energy that are known to be released before some seismic events. Long story short, there is nothing airy-fairy about all this; it's pretty likely that if more people took more notice of how they really feel then the correlations would be plain to see and even inarguable...

The "get away" feeling is possibly a natural response to a perceived threat. The same goes with the "something isn't right here" feeling, which I have had on several occasions and which has proved quite valuable. It's not something that can be rationalized, because such feeling s function below the level of conscious rationalization. The key thing is that when we get such feelings, we first need to consider if there are any obvious factors that could have triggered them. When there are none, while we might not literally head for the hills, we should at least take note of them and keep our awareness high.

Moving on... (And I hope my post isn't too obtuse.)

This spate of Vancouver Island quakes is of great concern. According to the USGS seismic hazard maps this region only averages about one mag 5 or greater quake per annum. It seems to be running well in excess of that now. Okay, "lies damned lies and statistics" is one phrase that comes to mind, as averages, quite frankly, are pretty meaningless when we are dealing with major, physical, energy-release events -- which is what earthquakes are, after all. The earth will either shake or it won't, and the earth doesn't give two hoots about statistics. All the same, it is not good to see that the seismic activity in that area is running above the long-term averages and we have to wonder what it might portend.

I can't help but repeat a comment I made a while back (either here or to Kat via email), that we perhaps should look at seismic activity in much the same way as we do the weather. Averages are useful as a rough guide, but there is a "chaos" factor -- the "butterfly in Beijing" concept -- which suggests to me that even a small change in one place can lead to massive changes elsewhere, but not necessarily through some logical event-'A'-leads-to-event-'B'-leads-to-'C' kind of process. In the same way that throwing one snowball at a steep, snow-covered mountainside might do no more than make a pretty little "crater" in the snow, but another snowball landing mere feet or even inches away from it could bring an avalanche of several million tons of snow down on the (foolish) thrower, we might have to go beyond the scientific and purely logical left-brain methods of prediction and look far more into the right-brain intuitive ones to find the answers that we seek. This is fundamentally what Charlotte has done; hers is not a non-scientific approach, but it uses a very different kind of science, where intuition and self-discovery is of equal or even greater importance than "conventional" scientific methodology.

To conclude... (Cheers from the crowd )

The USGS and other organizations like it have access to an enormous amount of data and scientific equipment, yet for all that, they are not services that are in the business of giving useful and timely warnings of possible seismic events. Yes, they give statistical probabilities and at least for the US, you can find out within a decade or so when a large quake can be expected in your region. That's as far as they will go, because they assert that it is not possible to make predictions within a limited time frame. That's their mindset and their official position. In other words, they are an information-gathering service, collecting data about the most powerful energy-release events that affect our planet, but they insist that no-one can predict these events and therefore they do not try. Well, if they are trying I have never heard about it. If anyone has seen the USGS or like organizations release specific predictions, please let me know.

On the other hand, we who have almost no resources or equipment, but who do believe prediction is possible, have met with increasing levels of obstruction in our efforts to at least access data that we need, and which should be freely available. I am not saying that the USGS's activities in deleting earthquakes, withholding waveform data (which they must have) and so forth are aimed at thwarting our efforts, but there has to be a reason why they are doing these things and to date, no explanations have been forthcoming. So, we can only assume that they either have something to hide, or they do not want anyone outside of their sainted circle to demonstrate that it is possible to do what they say cannot be done -- namely, predict earthquakes.

That's my take on it. Thanks for suffering through such a long post.

Regards,

Mike

[edit on 28/8/08 by JustMike]

Call me an old baby but man I am going to Vegas in one month and I am a little concerned.

I was reading a thread here on ATS about a bartender who saw symbols in the sky in Vegas I wonder if any connections can be made, I know it sounds strange but I try to observe everything and make connections.

I know UFO's monitor everything and if activity picks up it usually means something in that area.

reply to post by mountaindog

Good to hear from you! Thanks for posting and easing our worries.

You know, when they get a scientist/expert in to tell us all not to worry, that's when I start to worry.Why? Because the official position of the USGS and similar scientific organizations is that "quake prediction is impossible". Now, that being so (in their opinion), then the "experts" have no idea if a major quake might hit. Therefore, how can this scientist say that there is nothing to worry about, when (officially) they don't even know what might happen next?

BTW everyone, I'm not laughing because the situation is funny. It's just their illogicality that gets to me.

Prediction:

This is my first one in a while but it's just come up. I'm expecting something noteworthy in the region of Taiwan within seven days. Magnitude around 6 or higher I would say. Co-ordinates around the region of 24 N and 122 E. (Give or take a couple of degrees.) Most likely region appears to be along the eastern side of the island or offshore from the eastern side but I am not so certain on that, to be honest. Just seems most likely.

Hey folks....

well it looks like the swarm has "stopped". or at least USGS has stopped reporting them.

something interesting on the news yesterday (though they still continue to mis-report the number and strength of the quakes), they had a seismologist on and he was saying that the quakes were happening in a place where the plate pulls apart. he also went on to say that considering the size of the quakes and numbers, it was most likely magma coming to the surface and spilling out onto the sea floor.

why would that be something to "not" worry about?

*sigh* whatever..

lava movement and eruptions should be something to keep an eye on as we now have underwater volcanos blasting away off the coast of oregon and now van isle..

naw.. everything is good guys.

reply to post by pynner

Hi Pynner,

you make a good point and I agree wholeheartedly with you... Furthermore, what this latest expert says is at odds with what has been previously reported in respect of this region.

Back in 2005, a similar swarm of quakes in that region was studied by a team from the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The team’s co-leader was an oceanographer named Edward Baker. Prior to going out on the research expedition he spoke to the Seattle Times and said that the swarm of quakes was indicative of magma movement. It was important to study it because (as the report says) it would “…help improve understanding of the Juan de Fuca plate, a tectonic time bomb capable of producing earthquakes and tsunamis on par with the disaster that struck the Indian Ocean in December.” (Note: This refers to the Dec 2004 Asian Tsunami.)

Baker said that the quakes in this region are linked to the subduction zone, and further stated “It's the same plate movements which cause the earthquakes on the spreading ridge and allow new magma to come up that also cause the subduction earthquakes on the other side of the Juan de Fuca plate.” (Italics and bolding mine.)

One would assume that the co-leader of a NOAA-funded research team would know his job, so if he says that these plate movements do cause the subduction quakes -- which scientific studies show have historically been around magnitude 9 (i.e. similar to the Asian Tsunami of 2004) -- then why is it that these present seismic events are nothing to worry about? Yes, they might not directly lead to a massive quake along the subduction zone off the US/Canada west coast in the coming days, but this upwelling of magma and spreading of the plate is increasing the pressure on the subduction zone. The more the pressure and the longer before it lets go, the bigger the eventual quake will be.

I think we’re being taken for patsies.

Note: You may access the Seattle Times report from which the above quotes are taken at this link.

The article excerpts have been been quoted under fair-use provisions for educational purposes and may not be reproduced without their source being acknowledged.

Mike
EDIT to add: In my lonnnng post a few up from this one I said "According to the USGS seismic hazard maps this region only averages about one mag 5 or greater quake per annum." Errare humanum est... I meant their earthquake density maps, not seismic hazard maps. It's an important distinction so I felt I should correct it.


[edit on 29/8/08 by JustMike]

Hello all, I just wanted to report a very odd sensation I am currently having. It is 151am EST, and about 5 minutes ago I started feeling like the lower portion of my legs are vibrating, and the tone in my ears has gone very very low. Headache only in the lower part of the back of my head, it is more like a pressure than a headache though. The vibration sensation is curious, I have to wonder if it relates to any region as a precursor???

reply to post by space cadet

Hi Space cadet,

thanks for the post...I had very similar feelings in my lower legs last night -- ie about 11 hours ago at the time I'm posting. This is quite unusual for me and I haven't done anything physical which would account for it, so I've noted it and will see if it's a possible precursor of some kind. Bearing in mind that I'm about half-way around the world from you, if it's a precursor and relates to one seismic event, it would have to be a pretty major one. I don't "sense" that anything really big is looming right now but that doesn't deny it as a possibility.

reply to post by JustMike


Hi Mike, I think that somehow the vibration in my legs may have been for China, they had another quake ( I am sure you have heard about it now, it is late late Saturday night now) I am seeing that it was pretty bad again.

Tonight I have high pitched ringing in my ears, neck pain. I don't trust the neck pain though, I think it is injury, not a precursor.

The "get away" feeling is possibly a natural response to a perceived threat. The same goes with the "something isn't right here" feeling, which I have had on several occasions and which has proved quite valuable. It's not something that can be rationalized, because such feelings function below the level of conscious rationalization.

JustMike

This is absolutely true, and a fascinating subject, and knowledge that can be applied to any dangerous situation, not just natural ones. Cops will tell you that this is true, that they often hear from victims that they felt a seemingly irrational fear, or sensed that something "wasn't right" just before they were attacked... and had they heeded this warning, they might have escaped attack. I read an excellent book on the subject called "The Gift of Fear". At any rate, whether it's precognition or the primal brain, or both, responsible for these messages, they are worth heeding, even if you can't justify them rationally. Same thing when the hairs on your neck rise... you may not be consciously aware of a threat, but your body/mind is and it's warning you.

SpaceCadet & JustMike, I have to add that Dan and I also experienced the "vibration" sensation in our legs the other night. In fact, for about four nights, we had a difficult time falling asleep, despite some pretty arduous yard work during the days. Just very very restless. I should mention that one of my dogs has been sick two days in a row and that the other two have been spending a lot of nap time under the dining room table again-- for about the past week. Perhaps you are right, Mike, and something relatively major is coming. I've been so busy with other things that I haven't focused much on EQ precursors, and figured I'd only report anything very obvious and possibly major. Anyone having right ear aches and/or intense pressure?

By the way, Mike, excellent posts above.


pynner, yes, it is odd how the Van Isle swarm has just stopped, for the most part. The same thing happened here with the Reno swarm, minus the odd micro now and then. Begins out of nowhere, and suddenly ends. I believe JustMike hit on very good points regarding this phenomenon-- things are going on beneath us that are obviously connected in some way we don't yet understand.

Mountaindog, thanks for the updates and we're glad you're safe there. The swarm was out to sea a bit, I know.

I had to laugh when you mentioned the scientist's comments on the local news that there is nothing to worry about-- that sounded familiar. And JustMike hit it on the head on that subject-- when they say don't worry, look out. That entire region scares me and it's no secret that it's capable of earthquakes that could make history.

reply to post by kattraxx


Hi kattraxx et al,

I think the worst thing about that article is the scientist's comments have helped the general population continue to be very lax about preparing for a tsunami or major earthquake. Many of my friends on Vancouver Island don't take the threat of earthquakes seriously, especially now after reading that article in their local paper! It would have been a perfect opportunity to bring up the importance of preparation.

So glad to be back up on my mountain, out of major earthquake zones, safe and sound, and prepared!



[edit on 1-9-2008 by mountaindog]

Hey peoples, Are we going to have a big quake off of Washington? Kat what is the region in question for a nagging headache in the forehead area like a sinus headache?

My girlfriend has had one for over a week and besides her getting checked out by all the doctors I thought well maybe my baby is picking up on something big because normally she is really healthy and hasnt ever had problems with headaches before. And no she is not trying to keep me away lol.

Sorry I havent been around much, I have been watching the Georgia-Russia conflict closely and Iran as well. We have tons of Navy ships headed to the Persian gulf now and it dont look good.

I will look into what you all are exited about when I get home from work.

Sky, a headache is a precursor shared by many regions... what else have you got? I had a headache for four days before an EQ in the Seattle area a few years back. I believe it was in the high 6's or even the low 7's. The headache was across the forehead under the eyes and in both temples, mostly the right side.

I'm not really picking up anything huge right now. It seems my dogs picked up on the 3.2 in northeastern Nevada. I believe I mentioned that one had been sick the last two mornings in a row (vet says she's healthy) and the other two younger ones have been sleeping under the dining room table a lot the past few days.

I also had the main precursor for the Sierra/Wasatch region, but not real bad. The EQ is on the maps now, but may well disappear as many in that region seem to do.

Magnitude 3.3 - SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
2008 September 03 18:04:01 UTC

This one was 4 miles from Obsidian Butte, CA, south end of the Salton Sea, quickly followed by a smaller one.

Volcanic activity of any type requires a heat source close to the surface. Geophysical studies of seismic activity, of heat flow in the earth, and of magnetic anomalies in the area around the south end of the Salton Sea all suggest that active igneous and metamorphic processes are now going on associated with an intrusive mass that lies below the sedimentary cover.

The intrusion under the Salton Sea is thought to be a pluton, an arm or protrusion from a deeply buried molten magma. This intrusion is parallel to the axis of the Salton Trough. It is about 20 miles long by four miles wide, and is at least one to two miles thick. It lies within the upper 10,000 feet of the crust, and possibly as close as 4,000 feet from the surface. It is centered beneath the community of Niland, at the southeast shore of the Sea.

www.sci.sdsu.edu...

reply to post by kattraxx


Not only is the 3.2 in northeastern Nevada off the USGS maps now, but last night at 10:44 pm, we had an earthquake, around 3.0, but it's not on the maps. Nothing. Nada. Zip. This EQ was like the others over 2.8 or so... first a sideways (west to east) jerk, then shaking that tapers off. My dogs jumped up and headed out their dog door to the back yard, having been "trained" by the previous swarm in Reno, and they wouldn't come in for hours. I mentioned a couple times on this thread during the past week, that the dogs were napping under the table again, and the older one was sick in the morning a couple days before the 3.2 in NE Nevada that has since disappeared from the maps.

Damntheptb, I haven't seen you around lately. I hope you were awake for this one.

I'm still getting Sierra precursors, but as Charlotte says... these are always more intense than the subsequent EQ.

Edit to add: I forgot to mention that when the dogs ran outside after the EQ last night, I noticed the water in their little pool still moving back and forth.

[edit on 9/4/08 by kattraxx]