An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

Way behind, haven't been able to keep up on posting.
Even reading has been hard sometimes!
I'm still having trouble typing, even though I had a good night's sleep last night.

Today I mentioned the rib pain that some people said they had, to hubby.
He said he felt it for a few days, but didn't know that could be quake related too!
He had a pretty bad, 'arrow throught the pec', pain again too.

He thinks he had a seizure or almost did, in his sleep a couple of hours before the Japan quake.
When he woke up for work yesterday, I could tell something wasn't right.
He was so out of it. He put a shirt on that wasn't a work shirt,
& was walking around like a drunk person.
He said he was so achy like he got hit by a truck. That's how he feels after a seizure.

I finally convinced him to take a sick day & it's a good thing I did.
He went to sleep for hours! There's no way he could have driven to work
or been safe doing his job! All the other quakes & after shocks didn't help either!

So the big question is...was it a mild seizure or just the quake?
He didn't bite his tongue, but he's wiped out & achy like after a mild seizure.
But today I"M so achy. Not my joints...my 'meat'! Especially my arms.
Like I'd been lifting weights that were way too heavy for way too long!
It's been a looong time since that has happened!!!

We both still have ear ringing. He said some of the pressure was relieved by Japan's,
but it still feels like it's building again, something bigger maybe. I sure hope not!
Anyone else?
WOQ

I can't believe I posted in the Quake Watch thread and forgot to mention anything here *smacks forehead* I mentioned in QW that I had been watching/listening to www.ustream.tv... the whole day before the Japan 7.3 quake. I had felt the need to watch there, just one of those...need-to-watch feelings, YK? I shut the page down about 10 minute prior to the quake to go to sleep. Go figure

I'm so drained of energy today. I've already taken a 3 hour nap, and feel like I need another one already. I feel like a zombie.

Just a heads up: there was a Magnitude 7.2 quake in Indonesia just few minutes ago:

M7.2 - 208km NW of Saumlaki, Indonesia 2012-12-10 16:53:09 UTC
Event Time

2012-12-10 16:53:09 UTC
2012-12-11 01:53:09 UTC+09:00 at epicenter
2012-12-10 17:53:09 UTC+01:00 system time

Location

6.770°S 129.848°E depth=155.2km (96.4mi)
Nearby Cities

208km (129mi) NW of Saumlaki, Indonesia
343km (213mi) WSW of Tual, Indonesia
386km (240mi) SSE of Ambon, Indonesia
393km (244mi) SSE of Amahai, Indonesia
511km (318mi) ENE of Dili, East Timor

Source: USGS

Naturally as this is a first report from USGS there may be revisions to that quake magnitude by a point or two either way.

This quake was at sea and actually quite deep at 155 km down, so it less likely that it will have major effects on the region.

No tsunami warning is in effect for this quake.


I thought it worth posting as it's only been 5 days since the mag 7.3 off Japan.

Mike

How about this and the connection between rainbow clouds and earthquakes. I tried to post a thread on its own but i cant so then your thread pops up.
I am not scare mongering i just want to share so you all know ok so chill out, the other option of saying nothing and for something to happen would kill me. So you may ridicule me its easier but as i have said above i just came across this news story
Glowing Clouds cath the eye
Here are the images




However some may say they are nothing but what happened last time rainbow clouds were ignored?
2008 China Earthquake
Yeah nothing similar but there are many others

The article above is strange though,...

The appearance of unusually-shaped, rainbow-coloured clouds made for a particularly spectacular sunset over much of the north-east last night.

Listen, i am well aware that i may well get slated here but hey its a possibility and me posting this if it may save lives then i would do again, even if it just makes people aware of the phenomenon given the current electric universe theory and solar activity that is related to geological activity.
www.dailymail.co.uk...
Thanks for reading

reply to post by jazz10

Hi jazz10,

thanks for posting. First off I just want to reassure you that this is not a thread where we tend to ridicule people's opinions. We welcome alternative perspectives. So don't worry, you'll get a fair hearing here.

About the video of the clouds in Sichuan, China that you linked to: coincidentally, that video was uploaded on the same day that Kattrax started this thread -- on May 14, 2008. And as it happens, in her OP for the thread, she referred to "earthquake clouds" and also linked to an article about how they might possibly be formed.

The ones referred to in the article though, consider the shape of the clouds and their very rapid development. The ones you have mentioned are apparently of a different type as it's their odd colours that is the main point of interest.

Somewhere within this long thread we have discussed these clouds in quite some detail and I think there are also photos. (On second thought they might be in another thread by our member WestCoast, who also posts here.) However, there are reasons to believe that sometimes, these clouds are effected by EMR, possibly released from quake faults prior to an actual quake event.

Just in the last few years we have had scientific confirmation that in some cases, ionospheric heating occurs above fault regions in the days or weeks prior to quakes.

So, there is a growing body of evidence that various forms of EMR can be radiated before a quake -- perhaps due to piezoelectric effects.

What concerns me with the Abderdeenshire region clouds is that as far as I know, there is no major fault there****, and quake clouds tend to be quite localized above or near fault zones. I'm not a meterologist so I can't give any learned comment on their explanation that the clouds resulted from "a buildup of greehhouse gases". However I do find it an odd explanation, especially as there are plenty of other places even in the UK with far more polluted atmosphere. [**** If anyone has some detailed info on the Aberdeenshire region and knows of any major fault lines there, please post and let us know about it. Thanks. ]

But as I say, meteorology is not my field. Their explanation just puzzles me. True, there is the air-pollution effect from burning off stack gas at rigs out in the North Sea -- but they studiously didn't mention that. They make it seem that these odd looking clouds popped up over Aberdeenshire due to "global" atmospheric changes.

I just find that odd, and look forward to anything else you might wish to add.

Mike

reply to post by JustMike


Hi guys....

Was just about to post about the reports of glowing clouds here, but you beat me to it....I don't mind at all And I'm in Aberdeenshire, about 25 miles west of Aberdeen, and as far as I'm aware there is only the Highland Boundary Fault in this area, which isn't known to be that active. A couple of links to get us started...

Wiki Highland Boundary Fault

Scotland's geology

Britain's largest earthquake

List of British earthquakes from Wiki

Back in a bit...got more to read.


Cait x

My other half used to live in the area near where the Highland Fault can be see near the east coast, and he's seen the clouds before but only in the summer and usually just a thin crescent or line, for what it's worth. He describes them as like seeing a rainbow within the clouds, and at very high altitude. Am still reading.....

reply to post by caitlinfae

Hi Cait,

many thanks for providing us with some great references and info! I've only had time so far to scan through the main ones but they are quite an eye-opener. Scotland's very distinct highland topography indicated some ancient faults in the region, but I'd assumed they were no longer active. Big error on my part, there!

The historical materials you've provided would suggest there is still potential for quakes in the mag 6 range and possibly bigger. (And not only in Scotland.)

Hmmm... More reading needed when I have the time.

I won't be visiting much for the next few days due to real-life commitments but I'd encourage everyone to check out Cait's links and do some reading. Especially if you live anywhere in the UK region.

Mike

Whoa, had a wave of sadness/grief wash over me,
that lasted a couple of hours! About 12:30-2:30 ET.
My heart was racing, was feeling restless.
No reason for it!

Hubby came home from work & said he felt it too,
same time frame! Plus his usual quake aches!

Kind of weird that we both started feeling it at the same time.
Mine's just about gone, but not his.
Now my ears are ringing & the computer is acting wonky again.

Anything going on solar flare wise?
WOQ

reply to post by wasobservingquietly


I've been watching spaceweather.com all day as I read reports that we might get some decent lights tonight, but so far, nothing much is happening. It's very cold here and the sky is clear, so we would see them.

Sorry to hear you're not feeling so good, and hubby too....hope it passes soon. I'm ok at the moment, just a few aches and pains, no real anxiety or anything else to report, thank god.

Feels like something big is coming soon.

Peace

How is everyone doing today? I'm feeling simultaneously very groggy, like I can't fully wake up today, and wired & antsy to high hell. I feel like I need to both run a marathon, and sleep for a week at the same time. It's driving me crazy!

reply to post by Nyiah


Hello.... Yup, that's kinda how I feel just now. Antsy but exhausted at the same time. Still no cause for all this physical pain, and got the all clear from the doctor on everything she tested for, which was a lot, just a couple of days ago. I'm happy about that...! But my hands still hurt like hell, and I can't pin down why. Maybe it's cold weather, and it was -8 here this morning, and well below freezing for most of the day...I just don't know.

I will be updating the calendar we started this weekend when I have a few moments, so if anyone is interested in contributing to that, please pm me or Mike for the log in details. It's been kinda quiet around here, so I'm hoping that's a good thing, but like Laser feels, maybe there is something big in the works.

First time posting on this enormous thread.

I get random sharp rings in my ear, some strong some week, like Earthquakes.

One time I got a ring that almost took me down. It blasted through my left ear and out the right. It lasted for 10-15 seconds as it faded out. I got a massive head ache and my left eye ball got a tinny bump on it. I was located in a building about 20 yards from the flight path of planes landing at the local airport. I remember telling my wife it felt like a earthquake in my head, like a pressure release.

Four days later the big 8.8 EQ in Chile hit. I had read somewhere on line about ringing in the ears and earthquakes so I took notice.

I'm a skeptical skeptic so I lean more to coincidence, but if you guys have some info that might confirm a correlation that would be cool.

Since then I have had similar syncing of ringing and EQs in Chile. I'm not very diligent at documenting, I have enough ringing that I just ignore it and move on. I can tell you that at 10:10 tonight I noticed a strong pulsing in my left ear, it lasted about 5 min. It's still pulsing just mild now.

I have always been fascinated with earthquakes, and have seen the power and destruction that is possible. So I'm all for finding ways to predict earthquakes.

Thanks Nyiah for linking this thread from Quake Watch.

Just a heads up for everyone. About eight minutes ago there was a mag 6.4 earthquake in the sea, sw of California. [Edit: UPDATE: plus another one. Details added into this post below.]
Details:

M6.4 - 273km SSW of Avalon, California 2012-12-14 10:36:01 UTC
Event Time

2012-12-14 10:36:01 UTC
2012-12-14 02:36:01 UTC-08:00 at epicenter
2012-12-14 11:36:01 UTC+01:00 system time

Location

31.219°N 119.551°W depth=10.1km (6.3mi)
Nearby Cities

262km (163mi) SSW of Avalon, California
268km (167mi) WSW of Rosarito, Mexico
275km (171mi) WSW of Imperial Beach, California
276km (171mi) SW of Coronado, California
745km (463mi) WSW of Phoenix, Arizona

Source: USGS
(I have edited the above with the latest, revised depth information.)

This is the biggest one in that area for a while. Fortunately this quake was a fair way out to sea and so the effects on land should be quite small. However, at only 10.1 km deep it was very shallow.

There are NO tsunami warnings or watches for the event! (No surprising as it's really too small to cause a tsunami of any size.)

We can expect revisions of the magnitude (up or down a point or two) in the next 15 minutes or less.

EDIT: There has been another quake in the same region, which occurred 17 seconds after the one above. Details:

M6.1 - 142km SW of Avalon, California 2012-12-14 10:36:18 UTC
Event Time

2012-12-14 10:36:18 UTC
2012-12-14 02:36:18 UTC-08:00 at epicenter
2012-12-14 11:36:18 UTC+01:00 system time

Location

32.413°N 119.372°W depth=11.1km (6.9mi)
Nearby Cities

142km (88mi) SW of Avalon, California
173km (107mi) SSW of Rancho Palos Verdes, California
177km (110mi) SW of San Pedro, California
179km (111mi) SSW of Palos Verdes Estates, California
691km (429mi) W of Phoenix, Arizona

Source: USGS

Note the depth. 11.1 km is very shallow for a large quake!

Comments: this is now a matter of some concern. One mag 6-plus in that region, while uncommon, is not extraordinary. However, two within a minute is a rare situation and we now need to keep a close eye on things.

I will add more comments in a new post after I've had a chance to study the regional fault maps and historical data in more details.

Mike

reply to post by Observationalist

Thanks for posting and welcome to the thread!

Re your comments about coincidence: some cases would be, for sure. What makes it interesting is when the correlations seem to become more consistent and the likelihood of them all being coincidence drops off very sharply. That's one of the things I look out for, because as you'd understand, many hypotheses within science are not based upon "proof"; rather, they assess the probabilities of certain events occurring by random chance versus documented occurrences.

So, trying to "prove" a predictive link is not really the aim here and as a good sceptic you'd doubtless appreciate that. All we are doing is tracking what various members post and seeing what sort of correlations we get. A good example is the posts in the week or two prior to the great Japan quake of March last year. I feel that was quite significant, especially as one of the members whose posts were quite predictive in their nature was rather dubious about the whole thing when he started posting.

If you'd like specific examples of some actual predictions then I can link you to some -- both successful and not.

Mike

Morning everyone..

Just a quick pit stop before Christmas shopping expedition. Just saw the Cali quake reported on the BBC so I thought I would log in. Hopefully it won't do too much damage, even although it's a good size. Somehow I don't think I'm picking up on anything to do with this though.

Will catch up with the diary this weekend, and log some symptoms...still as sore as hell, and painkillers aren't touching it, and I forgot to mention last night that I've had ear ringing consistently for days now...almost a week. We're in for a spell of very windy weather here tonight, up to 80 mile an hour winds, but I don't think it's anything to do with that. Sometimes a very low depression can make me feel very groggy.

On another point that isn't really related, or at least I hope not, the upcoming December 21st date is something I keep forgetting about, like it's just not there, or not relevant. I honestly think and feel that there is nothing due on that date, and what we're perhaps picking up on isn't anything to do with Mayan calendars, or any other system, besides what the earth wants to do. Pressure is building somewhere though.

reply to post by caitlinfae

Hi Cait,

it's now two big quakes off Baja (sw of SoCal). See the update in my post above.

As I mentioned in your calendar two days ago, I've been nervy for a few days now. Not sleeping well etc. Plus the weird dreams.

Frankly I don't like the look of these two new events, simply because they're not where I'd expect them to be. More commonly events that size occur over on the other side of the Baja penisula in the Gulf of California. I'm still reviewing my notes and reports for the region's faults and historic seismicity, but meanwhile my concern is the possible teleseismic effects further up the coast and maybe even into the SAF itself. (Though that's not very likely. I hope.)

EDIT: I just did a search of the NEIC quake database to find out how many events have occurred in the region where today's two quakes hit. I used the coordinates of the second one (as it's closer to land and hence could be more of a threat) and set the "search circle" at 240 km (150 miles) so that it would cover a large region but not actually touch land. (Because my main interest is the subsea fault region where today's quakes happened, no the know faults on land.)

Please note that today's events have not yet been added to the archive database. That'll happen in around a week or so after they've been reviewed and the magnitude details have been confirmed.

Here's the results:

NEIC: Earthquake Search Results

U. S. G E O L O G I C A L S U R V E Y

E A R T H Q U A K E D A T A B A S E

FILE CREATED: Fri Dec 14 11:37:01 2012
Circle Search Earthquakes= 0
Circle Center Point Latitude: 31.219N Longitude: 119.551W
Radius: 240.000 km
Catalog Used: PDE
Intensity Range: 5 - 10
Data Selection: Historical & Preliminary Data


CAT YEAR MO DA ORIG TIME LAT LONG DEP MAGNITUDE IEM DTSVNWG DIST
NFO km
TF

Yes, that's what it shows: prior to the two mag six-plus events today, there have been no quakes over mag 5 within 150 miles of them in the last 39 years. (The data base goes back to 1973.) So I moved the circle out to 260 km, to pick up any of the near-land ones:

NEIC: Earthquake Search Results

U. S. G E O L O G I C A L S U R V E Y

E A R T H Q U A K E D A T A B A S E

FILE CREATED: Fri Dec 14 11:38:57 2012
Circle Search Earthquakes= 5
Circle Center Point Latitude: 31.219N Longitude: 119.551W
Radius: 260.000 km
Catalog Used: PDE
Intensity Range: 5 - 10
Data Selection: Historical & Preliminary Data


CAT YEAR MO DA ORIG TIME LAT LONG DEP MAGNITUDE IEM DTSVNWG DIST
NFO km
TF

PDE 1983 06 29 080836.40 32.63 -117.38 5 4.6 MLPAS 6D. ....... 257
PDE 1986 07 13 134708.20 32.97 -117.87 10 5.3 MLPAS 6CM ......S 250
PDE 1986 07 16 124701.50 32.95 -117.82 10 3.7 MLPAS 5F. ....... 251
PDE 1986 07 29 081741.60 32.93 -117.84 10 4.3 MLPAS 5F. ....... 248
PDE 1990 04 04 085439.30 32.97 -117.81 6 4.0 MLPAS 5F. ....... 254

Five events, all in the sea but about 30 miles from nearest land, in SoCal. Why the heck it even shows the mag 3s and 4s when I set the lower limit to mag 5 I don't know. But in any case, the nearest quake over a mag 5 was 26 years ago and 250 km away, the two others that month were aftershocks, and even the 1990 quake was in almost exactly the same place. The other one, in 1983, wasn't very far away either.

Whatever that fault is where today's quakes happened, it has been several decades at least since anything significant happened there. And a mag 6.1 is way bigger than a mag 5.3, so these events are, seismologically, very important.

END EDIT

The Dec 21 date: I agree with you. The whole Dec 21 thing has been blown out of all proportion and besides human-generated events of the self-fulfilling style, what our planet does on that day is no more statistically likely than any other day of the year.

ANOTHER EDIT: the mag 6.1 disappeared off the maps and has now been replaced by a mag 4.7. The mag 6.4 has been revised down to a 6.3. I have no problem with the minor revision as that's very common after the data is reviewed; I do have a problem with a mag 6.1 being revised down to a 4.7... The only possible explanation is that the seismic waves from the 6.4 partly buried the traces for the next event and it was misread by the auto-read software and then revised after manual review by seismologists. But frankly, the USGS should be able to do better than that when it's an event in their own back yard!

Mike

That's really good information, Mike. Thank you for researching past earthquakes in the vicinity.

Looking at the USGS technical page for the Mag 6.3 (downward revision), the faulting-style looks to be a normal fault. That is where one side slides down relative to the other side, which is extensional--meaning the Pacific plate was being stretched apart at this location.

I really hope you are right about this event not influencing the SAF. It probably is too far away to directly transfer built-up stress all the way to the San Andreas, but it's all connected in the big picture.

I realize it is difficult to pin down, but do you all feel like this was the end of the action in this area?

reply to post by Olivine


No, I think this might be a foreshock, or a precursor to something as big or bigger nearby.

Peace