posted on Dec, 2 2012 @ 05:24 PM
reply to post by caitlinfae
Yes, Dec 21st this year will probably be very like the same date in any other year, once we remove the hype and hysteria from it. This all derived
from some interpretations of a single calendar, after all. It's nothing more than that and frankly there is no reason for us to worry about some
world-encompassing, cataclysmic event.
True, it's remotely possible that a huge and currently uncharted asteroid could come hurtling our way. They've happened before, with seriously
largew ones at intervals of about 100 million years or so -- on average. But the odds of one basically coming in out of nowhere within the next few
weeks are so slim that it's probably more likely someone would win powerball two weeks in a row. With the same numbers...
It's also possible that a major quake could occur on Dec 21. In fact that's way, wayyyy more likely than an asteroid hit. As we average around two
mag 8 or bigger quakes per year -- or around one every six months -- then the chances of one on any given day are about 1 in 180.
In other words, about once every couple of hundred years we could expect a mag 8 quake to happen on Dec 21. And that's the problem with statistics
for quakes. We could also go 500 years and not have one, or they could happen on the same date two years in a row.
With mag seven range quakes, we average about one every 23 days if I recall correctly. So the odds of one on a given day in a month are therefore much
higher. But again, we can go months without one as well, as happened earlier this year.
The only thing that does concern me is that a govt somewhere in the world might use the date as an opportunity to spring a nasty surprise on another
nation. There are likely to be so many hyped up, hysterical reports on that day via FB, Twitter and other social networks, along with various bloggers
getting in on the act to score some page views as well, that people just won't know what to believe.
But aside from that slight chance, for the vast majority of the world it ought to be just another day.