An Experiment in Alternative Methods of Earthquake Prediction

Hi everyone, I'd like to comment on a few things you've been mentioning but first I have a responsibility to deal with:
From this post on 10/10/12 (which refers to my first mention of this prediction some hours earlier on the same day):

Originally posted by JustMike
[Snip]
Meanwhile, my prediction for a mag 5 or bigger on or very near the PNW coast that I posted about 9 hours ago still stands. If it doesn't happen by around midday (my time) on Saturday, then that will be a "no hit". If that turns out to be the case then it'll be logged as such.

[Snip]

So, I am now posting for the record: no mag 5 or bigger quake occurred on or very near the PNW coast on Saturday, Oct 13 (at any time). This means that my prediction was a "no hit".

As a matter of interest there was a mag 4.0 today, Oct 14, in the triple junction region just off the coast from far Nth Cal, but as it'd take ten of those to equal just one mag 5, there is no way I'd claim that as close enough. But in any case mag 4.0 quakes are relatively common there, and that as that one occurred more than 24 hours after my cut-off for the time window anyway, it was a day late and a dollar (magnitude) short.

Again for the record, here's the data:

Event Time

2012-10-14 16:53:04 UTC
2012-10-14 08:53:04 UTC-08:00 at epicenter
2012-10-14 18:53:04 UTC+02:00 system time

Location

40.624°N 125.314°W depth=2.6km (1.6mi)
Nearby Cities

89km (55mi) W of Ferndale, California
97km (60mi) W of Fortuna, California
99km (62mi) W of Eureka, California
107km (66mi) WSW of Arcata, California
398km (247mi) NW of Sacramento, California

Details are here at USGS.

The only thing that interests me about this event is that it's very shallow. 2.6 km (1.6 miles) is not so deep as we generally see them in that area. (10 km or greater is more common.)

Am I disappointed with this "no hit"? Nope. We have to expect to be wrong sometimes. Doesn't mean we give up. Besides, I think most of us like things quiet, so if one doesn't happen then at least nobody got shaken up and maybe scared.

Mike

Originally posted by wasobservingquietly
Was this what we were feeling?

MAP 6.7 2012/10/12 00:31:30 -4.842 134.085 24.7 NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA

SOURCE: USGS

24 hours from the time we posted.
Popcorn is usually a pretty good indicator for me.
That craving is worse than any I ever had when I was pregnant!
Or maybe it just seems that way because I'm usually antsy at the same time.

[snip]

Hi WOQ,

I honestly doubt if that one was big enough to account for the amount of postings we've been getting. Okay, it's a higher level mag 6 but they aren't that rare on a worldwide basis. Once we get over mag 7 it's getting into rarer territory. Also, the Indonesia region is one of the most likely for such events. I feel that we might pick up more on somewhere that these events are rarer.

However, we're all different, so I'd emphasize again that each and every one of us has to go with what we feel. My opinion is just one of many. It's really worth no more than anyone else's when we are dealing with things that cannot even be well defined by hard-and-fast criteria yet.

Meanwhile, referring back to IEVPC.org's warning, I should also note that there has not been any major quake activity in the Kamchatka region yet. There have been three quakes around 290 km SSW of Severo-kuril'sk today -- a mag 5.8, 5.2 and 5.0, all around the location of roughly 48.3 - 48.39 N and 154.4 -- 154.5 E, but they are nowhere near the approx mag 7.5 to 8.8 event predicted by IEVPC in their "Stage 8" warning released on Oct 9. And as the warning's quake epicenter was 50.5 N and 159.6 E, today's quakes are also about 1300 km (800 miles) SSW from there.

EDIT: CORRECTION. When I measured the distance from the mag 5.8 (mentioned above) to IEVPC's predicted location, I did a typo when inputting coordinates and wrote "50.5 N" as "59.5 N". I was checking Google Earth (GE) today and thought it looked wrong because their location shows as too far from the subduction zone. So I rechecked and found my error. Re-plotting with the right coordinates, the mag 5.8 was about 440km SW from the IEVPC location, not 1300 km SSW.

While the size of the quake is still way too low to mean much in relation to their prediction, it was at least in the general region along the same subduction zone. Not close, but not a huge distance out, all things considered.

So, I apologise for my error. I've left my original statement untouched as it's an example of how careful we have to be when plotting coordinates. END EDIT

Mike

Originally posted by KhufuKeplerTriangle
[quote snippied]
the night of that quake, my husband had a horrible nightmare about a demon laughing; popped out of a jack in the box and grinned at him.

as for me, that week i had delusions and premonitions of dead bodies. i could not sleep the night of the quake.
although it was daylight for them it was night for us, and we were afraid of the dark.

Sometimes dreams are just dreams, but other times they can me a whole lot more. It's well worth noting them down with as much detail as possible. I had one a few days before the big quake destroyed the city of Bam in Iran in December 2003. It stunned me when that event occured because it fitted perfectly with what I dreamed: the types of homes, the way the streets were, everything.

That was a major turning point in the way I looked at such dreams. I'm glad that I get them rarely.

But several members have noted details of quake/tsunami dreams in this thread and it's good to have them here. We're looking at a huge and complex puzzle and sooner or later, more of the pieces may fall into place.

I see you're in Seattle. We have quite a few members from up your way who've posted here. If you are new to studying quakes we have plenty of solid information available if you'd like to learn more. I mean, you may know plenty already! But if not then we can help out with a whole range of studies, links to informational videos and so on. Also, the head of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network (from U of WA) is a member on ATS. So we have someone we can ask any complicated quesions, who knows the region's seismicity very well.

Mike

Anybody seeing this Russia thing coming soon in light of recent quakes?

Not feeling much at this moment so if something does happen, I didn't get the vibes.

Not a lot of symptoms, but was craving popcorn all night, even when I was eating supper!
I finally gave up trying to ignore it & ate some even though I wasn't hungry.

Young cat was under the desk for a little while earlier.
And she's back under again now.

Hubby still has his regular symptoms, still about a 4, hasn't let up for days.
We both have ear ringing right now too.

WOQ

Well....as to the PNW, the ETS (episodic tremor and slip) has been on a record run for over a month now. I am begining to wonder if this might account for some many people picking up on things and having symptoms. It looked like it may have stopped, but there was tremor again today. I am thinking we might see a moderate sized quake just off-shore Northern Oregon. Don't ask me why, I just know it fits into a pattern that I recognize in association with tremors. I can't outline it, because I tend to see these on a subconcious level.

I know, I know, not exactly scientific....but there ya go.

ETA: I should add, that I have been experiencing pressure headaches for awhile now (on and off for a couple of weeks....every day for the past three days). Not a common thing for me...right between the eyes.

Originally posted by Doodle19815
Anybody seeing this Russia thing coming soon in light of recent quakes?

Not feeling much at this moment so if something does happen, I didn't get the vibes.

I don't feel much either, Doodle. However, I've missed some important ones completely over the years.

And here's something interesting. While the mag 5.8 (and it 2 aftershocks) yesterday were around 440 km SW of IEVPC's predicted location, there was a mag 5.6 very early this morning (UTC) just 160 km (100 mi) due north of there. That's getting pretty close in terms of location:


For perspective, here's a map showing that part of the subduction zone. It's over 2,000km long:


That entire, long subduction zone tends to be active, but the way these quakes are "bracketing" their predicted epicenter location is of interest. However we need to bear in mind that IEVPC posted a warning at the end of July stating the big quake was due within days, and that followed on from a warning they posted in April that said it would occur by the end of June.

So, if the big one does happen -- and it has to be at least a mag 7.5 to qualify by their own prediction criteria -- and if it occurs very close to their predicted location, we still have to consider that they have been predicting this event for six months now. If they get the location and magnitude pretty well bang on target that will still be impressive, but from the point of view of timing, their effective six-month "window" (so far) leaves us with a few questions.

Could it be that the likely trend in a fault region is detectable, regarding the "failure point" (epicenter) and amount of rupture (magnitude), but the timing is still extremely difficult to pin down?

Maybe yes. It's quite possible the people at IEVPC sincerely believed they were right in their analyses, but for whatever reason, things have proceeded far more slowly than they expected. There could be a multitude of factors for this and some are likely not well understood -- if scientists are even aware of them at all.

So, having ate some humble pie for breakfast, I for one am going to give them a bit more leeway on this one. To me, timing is very important because of the credibility factor: the majority of the public (and govt officials) will soon see the prediction makers as crying wolf if nothing happens after prediction "take one", "take two" and so on.

Even so, if they do get very close to the location and magnitude then that's significant and worth following up further.

So, we will see what happens during the next few days.

Mike

reply to post by westcoast

Hi Tara,

well, you're right up there in WA so if things are moving and energy's being released, you could well be picking up on it.

I guess your dogs will be a good indicator -- as they have been in the past and as you've recorded here and in your own threads on ATS.

Please post and let us know if they start acting up as they have before.

And anyone else in and around the PNW, from BC on down, we'd love to have your input -- even if it's to say "Nope, not feeling a thing here." The more the merrier.

If anyone wants more info on the episodic tremor and slip events in the PNW, just ask me or westcoast or one of the other regulars and we can help you out.

Mike

Not to be a brat, but I am extremely curious how this IEVPC is even legit. I have warning bells going off about the legitimacy of this group. Not because they have failed at predicting either. There is just too much that screams shady. I did some googling and am really not seeing much. This is familiar to a notorious individual who has wreaked havoc in the weather communities with sites similar.

Also, I feel that it detracts from what we have going here among all of us. We shouldn't be trying to compare ourselves to other people because then it becomes competition. Then it's not about what we think or feel anymore, we just start throwing things out there because it feels like if we don't, we will lose out to others. Sorry for maybe not making sense but I really didn't like the feeling I had reading the last pages of the thread. I care very much for everyone here and this is such a nice place.

I apologize for out of the blue jumping on this. I apologize if I was too harsh. Now moving on..

I've felt quite headachy tonight and the past few days. Headache is gone now but was really bad about 30mins ago.
I think the west coast down through chile will be active today.

I've had trouble getting on lately due to my hard drive failing on my main computer. What a bummer that is!

reply to post by rbkruspe

Not at all harsh, in my opinion. And even . if some might think it was, everyone is entitled to have their say.

I've given that organization quite a pounding over the past couple of pages. Today, I've simply done a reassessment of how I see things on the basis of what has been happening within their general target region over the past few days. While I'm still dubious I'm willing to give this a little time to see how things pan out.

What frustrates me is the same thing I mentioned a few days back, namely that if they are legit then they should, at least, make their bases for assessment public. That would help a lot. Otherwise we aren't really getting anywhere as a community who are interested in advancing the concept of prediction. I don't like the idea of them only providing data to "customers" while espousing the objective of wanting to help people in general. That smacks of elitism and we don't need that.

Here, within our own smaller community, I feel that the overall attitude is generally positive and supportive and that's good. I see your own input today in this light. Critcism is sometimes needful and we need it to keep our focus.

So, I have no problems with what you said.

Mike

Originally posted by JustMike
reply to post by westcoast

 

Hi Tara,

well, you're right up there in WA so if things are moving and energy's being released, you could well be picking up on it.

I guess your dogs will be a good indicator -- as they have been in the past and as you've recorded here and in your own threads on ATS.

Please post and let us know if they start acting up as they have before.

And anyone else in and around the PNW, from BC on down, we'd love to have your input -- even if it's to say "Nope, not feeling a thing here." The more the merrier.

If anyone wants more info on the episodic tremor and slip events in the PNW, just ask me or westcoast or one of the other regulars and we can help you out.

Mike

Hey Mike...funny how I really didn't make this connection before. You would think I'd be a bit more aware by now...but things have been really busy.

BOTH my dogs have been a bit on edge for over three weeks now. Ties in very nicely with the tremor. They seem a bit anxious, barking much more easily than usuall, not wanting to go outside, clingy and my little dog has been laying under the desk sometimes again. She hasn't done her moaning, shaking thing (which, btw, also ties in nicely to her predicting quakes. We haven't had anymore close ones...hence, no similar symptoms)

Anyways....I'll keep paying attention and see if their behavior goes back to normal after the tremor stops!

Don't be disappointed when wrong about quakes, be happy you're alive

HAITI = not a good time

Seattle could be worse

@.@

Has anyone noticed the activity/swarm in Nevada?

www.mynews4.com...

It's not strange for a dozen quakes this size to happen in a week, but there have been at least 115 since October 8, and about 60 of those have been since Thursday. "These things are totally unpredictable," Smith said. "It could stop today, or it could keep going at a level of very small events that no one would feel." Or they could get stronger. so far they're small - with the biggest two quakes shaking at magnitude one - but there's potential for one that really rocks Reno. "We have faults around here that are capable of magnitude seven type events," Smith said. So this week the Great Nevada Shakeout will teach people to drop, cover and hold-on just in case there's a big quake. It's Nevada's largest earthquake drill and it's this Thursday, October 18 at 10:18 am.

Activity is seemingly picking up and the talk of Volcanic activity and swelling is picking up as well.

The time we live in are pretty exciting and surreal.

Deep down.... we on this thread KNOW something is around the corner that will alter a way of life.

"What" is going to happen is highly debatable but the possibilities within the Earth are endless.

Pole shift coming up? I have no idea but we are feeling something more than our self at work.

The "feelings" are not going away.... they remain.

Let me know your thoughts on the Nevada swarm.... I had NO idea.

Wow I feel pretty crappy. I had a headache last night and this morning. I have felt a bit sick and impending doom feeling since about 4:30pm EDT. I found out about the quake in Maine at about 7:30pm. I am feeling like I am on some kind of gravity ride. That feeling when you go down a dip on a roller coaster. I hate it. I felt this off and on this afternoon as well. When the quake happened I was thinking about quakes cause of some shaking of the ground that I felt. I thought that later tonight we would see some craziness with quakes. It was a passing thought and didnt give much to it. Then I saw the quake report about 10-15 mins after.


And to Mike, I am glad you agree and that I was not trying to be rude. I get really irked at a lot of so called quake predictorion things because of the tendency to be fake. That one really does seem to try to look legit and its decieving. If you look at the pages of the affiliated scientists,, you can guess their methods..and its not that far out. but ugh..idk.

Has anyone noticed that the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) map from JPL currently has two areas pegged out in the red zone? From what I understand

Scientists have observed anomalies in the TEC of the upper atmosphere just before an earthquake.

wiki link

Btwn this, the Maine quake today, the Nevada swarms and the Yellowstone swarms of the last day or two, and the Ohio River suddenly and unexplainably "dropping" 3 feet in an area too uncomfortably close to the the New Madrid neighborhood earlier this week (ATS link), me thinks things may get wonky. My two cats have been acting sketchier than normal and my ears are just a ringing.

Here's a pic and link to JPL's Ion Tec map - don't ask me any techie stuff - all I know is red=not good. FYI 7:20 UTC time = 3:20 AM EST USA JPL Ion TEC map link

reply to post by SCGrits

Here's a pic and link to JPL's Ion Tec map - don't ask me any techie stuff - all I know is red=not good.

If you watch the chart You might notice that the red follows the Sun. Every day. Maybe the "techie stuff" would help.

Hi Phage! Yes I know it follows the sun, but as often as I gander at this wonderful gadget it rarely tops out in the red, it's usually in the pretty yellow range. I also found it odd that it's popping red spots when there is no notable solar activity to speak of going on at the moment. Your thoughts on why it's red at those particular hot spots? Surely the sun shines all over, no?

Space weather prediction center maps here's a US only map for the current day at a given time. Here's a video from the BBC explaining more

I feel quite bad that I wasn't too aware of this link. Being a radio op I know about propagation and such. I am familiar with the TEC map in general. I am not at all surprised it messes with radio signals such as GPS. I have yet to post photos of the ripple wave clouds that I see a lot before quakes. Now that I think about this map, radio and quakes. I am reminded of the Jupiter and solar radio telescope one can make with a simple receiver and antenna plus a software on the computer. Some are called SID monitors (sudden ionospheric disturbance) monitors. I used to do this all the time and Jupiter has quite a magnetic influence. So it makes me wonder how and if quakes and their precursors may be altering the E and H fields around the earth. Also what frequencies could be affected. I just might check that out later today.

I just read two interesting news reports concerning animals and earthquakes, and thought I would post them in here, just in case.
The credit for these links goes to member twistedroots in this post found in the Predictions & Prophecies thread.

On 4 March 2011, there was an article found in The Telegraph describing oarfish washing ashore and being caught in nets in recent weeks, in Japan. Note the date; weeks before the devestating mag 9, but all on the west coast of the island of Honshu. Were they driven away from the east coast?

These fish normally live at depth in the oceans. They are known in Japanese folklore as the Messenger from the Sea God's Palace, and their appearance is said to portend earthquakes.

Now skip to the present. Last Friday, 12 October 2012, an oarfish was found washed ashore near Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Here is a link to a description of the event from grindTV.
Oarfish are native to the Sea of Cortez; maybe this was just one sick or aged fish. Or maybe it is a precursor?

I just wanted to add this info to your discussion, especially since the San Andreas has captured my attention in recent weeks.

edit on 10/17/2012 by Olivine because: trying to make mystery bolding disappear

Weird. Sorry, I can't seem to 'unbold' the last lines. No coding is showing to erase..

edit on 10/17/2012 by Olivine because: (no reason given)

edit on 10/17/2012 by Olivine because: ugh