Originally posted by Doodle19815
Anybody seeing this Russia thing coming soon in light of recent quakes?
Not feeling much at this moment so if something does happen, I didn't get the vibes.
I don't feel much either, Doodle. However, I've missed some important ones completely over the years.
And here's something interesting. While the mag 5.8 (and it 2 aftershocks) yesterday were around 440 km SW of IEVPC's predicted location, there was a
mag 5.6 very early this morning (UTC) just 160 km (100 mi) due north of there. That's getting pretty close in terms of location:
For perspective, here's a map showing that part of the subduction zone. It's over 2,000km long:
That entire, long subduction zone tends to be active, but the way these quakes are "bracketing" their predicted epicenter location is of interest.
However we need to bear in mind that IEVPC posted a warning at the end of July stating the big quake was due within days, and that followed on from a
warning they posted in April that said it would occur by the end of June.
So, if the big one does happen -- and it has to be at least a mag 7.5 to qualify by their own prediction criteria -- and
if it occurs very
close to their predicted location, we still have to consider that they have been predicting this event for six months now. If they get the location
and magnitude pretty well bang on target that will still be impressive, but from the point of view of timing, their effective six-month "window" (so
far) leaves us with a few questions.
Could it be that the likely trend in a fault region is detectable, regarding the "failure point" (epicenter) and amount of rupture (magnitude), but
the timing is still extremely difficult to pin down?
Maybe yes. It's quite possible the people at IEVPC sincerely believed they were right in their analyses, but for whatever reason, things have
proceeded far more slowly than they expected. There could be a multitude of factors for this and some are likely not well understood -- if scientists
are even aware of them at all.
So, having ate some humble pie for breakfast, I for one am going to give them a bit more leeway on this one. To me, timing is
because of the credibility factor: the majority of the public (and govt officials) will soon see the prediction makers as crying wolf if nothing
happens after prediction "take one", "take two" and so on.
Even so, if they do
get very close to the location and magnitude then that's significant and worth following up further.
So, we will see what happens during the next few days.
edit on 15/10/12 by JustMike because: I added GE map images