so here we have pretty big one, in the troublesome region that many of us have had our eye on for quite a while now. That mag 7.7 early today (UTC)
was very shallow. USGS has it at 17.5 km, which would place it about right for a subduction zone event.
I'm not sure if it is the
big one, but we can only hope that this is not a foreshock -- in the way that the mag 7.3 quake off the Japan coast
two days before their mega-quake was actually a foreshock to that one. However, the possibility cannot be excluded, especially as this event is just
past the northern end of that particular subduction zone line. The reason why this could be significant is that some researchers believe that if a
major quake occurs in the subduction zone it will start at one end and then travel along its length.
The absolute worst case would be a movement along the zone's entire length as this would (overall) generate the most powerful quake and also could
create a massive tsunami.
Seeing that big quake on the USGS map today -- I check the quake maps every day as soon as I can after waking -- well, it wasn't a huge surprise...
You might have noticed my absence in the past few days. In fact, besides a single post in Board Business on Oct 21, my last public posts on ATS before
then (on Oct 20) were here in this thread.
My very last post on this thread before today -- this one
is where I
discussed the problems of URM buildings and especially in relation to the PNW (specifically Seattle and environs) and posted a video where experts
talk about exactly this matter there. I also mention the general threat of the Cascadia Subduction Zone, and the inability of TPTB to bite the bullet
and provide needed funding to lessen the potential human losses for the quake that must happen one day.
True, I have posted about the CSZ several times in this thread and elsewhere, but that was
my last post before today.
Also -- as staff can confirm -- I have not been doing anything much by way of moderator duties in the past three or four days, which is unusual for me
as normally I'm active in at least a dozen "staff only" threads every day. In fact since Tuesday I'd spent maybe four or five hours total logged in,
versus my typical average of 6 to 8 hours per day. (And often much longer.)
I posted in a staff thread that my lack of input was because of some things going on in real life. It's true: the fact is, I've just not been up to
doing much. The past four or five nights in a row my sleep has been badly disturbed, and normally I don't have this problem. I kept waking up every
couple of hours and just felt very uneasy. Even this morning I woke up at around 2 am my time and it took a while to get back to sleep.
I still don't feel a lot better, really.
But hey, I've just got up after another rotten night. Hopefully things will quieten down.
On the plus side, that region has seen some big quakes in the historical past without them turning into full-on megathrust events. If I recall
correctly there was a low mag 8 event around there in the 1940s, for example. So this event doesn't have to mean that a bigger one will follow. But we
need to accept that it could and therefore I'd suggest that people lving in near-coastal regions in the PNW at least have their ears open and have
their bug-out bags at the ready. Chances are you won't need them but it's better to be ready just in case.
edit on 28/10/12 by JustMike because: (no reason given)