posted on Jan, 5 2006 @ 02:51 AM
Far be it from me to take an enemy lightly. My basic approach to military subjects is that you want to work under the assumption that the enemy will
play the hand they are dealt perfectly, that way you don't get nearly as many unpleasant surprises.
That being said, it is important not to overestimate your enemy, because hesitation and unwarranted caution create missed opportunities for decisive
The United States should attempt to solve this problem from the air, while assuming that Iran will retaliate both on the ground, in the air (including
with missiles) and at sea.
The answer is to position ourselves for a ground operation (not an invasion, but a decisive engagement to destroy an oncomming Iranian attack), move
our carriers out of harms way, bring all necessary airpower and air defense into the theater, then attack.
There are several scenarios for attack that could work.
We could go at them purely in the air and in the gulf,
We could suppliment with Special Forces,
We could include an attempted assassination,
We could attempt to back a coup,
Or we could make a ground raid.
A full invasion/occupation is not to be undertaken. This would be less politically viable, it would be bad for the future of our reserve forces, it
would be unncessarily expensive, etc.
I am not completely certain what ECK means by checking out Iran's military history, but if he's referring to the fact that they were able to fight
to a draw with Saddam's Iraq, I'm not all that impressed to be honest.
We have the capacity to hold Iran out of Iraq if we adequately prepare. We have the airpower to dismantle any infrastructure we choose in that
Iran's Kilo subs and it's missiles can be gotten to. They can retaliate by terrorism of course- although I fail to see the cause for innaction in
the fact that they might do something that they'd probably do anyway.
The stability of Iraq, frankly is of minimal concern. The insurgency is not a substantial threat, and if their government is ready to throw us out
then we ought to leave anyway; we did what we went there to do. There is no more Saddam, if there ever were WMD there, there aren't anymore,
Halliburton has their blood money- what good reason is there to care if we get kicked out of Iraq after mopping the floor with Iran?
China and Russia, to put it plainly, are not a threat in Iran. They've can't get substantial equipment there before the war is over, and any
aircraft of air defenses they send are going to be severely out of their league, and will be destroyed.
There are some wars out there that America would have to be out of its mind to get involved in, and that would give the world their wish of seeing us
learn our lesson. Korea with Chinese involvement would be hairy. Taiwan could be ugly. Trying to regime change and occupy almost anyone is never an
Knocking Iran's lights out? Please. As long as we get the drop on them before they get the drop on us, this will be yet another one of those wars
that makes Russia and China's jaws drop.
I don't know if you're aware, but China freaked the hell out when they saw what happened in the Gulf War. They had no idea just how badly outmatched
their forces and doctrine were. If they beleive that the terrain in Iran is going to slow us down that much... they could get a real shock if America
goes after Iran smartly.
Now I do have one concession to make. I don't think the current administration would settle for an attack. This administration has repeatedly pursued
a hidden agenda paramount to the legitimate concerns in the wars it has entered, and as a result has not succeeded in quite the manner that it should
have. The current administration just might choose to occupy if the next election works out, and might justify it by baiting Iran into the first major
strike, or with the good old USS Maine/Pearl Harbor/Gulf of Tonkin trick. Their rationale would probably be that 2008 is a lost cause for the party
and that they have to do everything they want to do right away. If that happens, the volunteer reserve force is almost certainly doomed, the US is
going to have a domestic political crisis, there will be another several thousand casualties over several years, there will be major problems for our
budget, and China will be laughing all the way to the bank as they watch the stage being set for their birth as the next lone super-power in the wake
of our political/economic decline.