Global War - WWIII: How close are we?

First of all we can save the semantics. In this case the term "Global War" refers to direct military confrontation between the superpowers that "may" lead to the use of nuclear weapons.

THE ECONOMICS OF WAR - Ludwig von Mises
A good background primer that I have read,
and will show you were I am coming from with my thoughts.

1. Total War
2. War and the Market Economy
3. War and Autarky
4. The Futility of War

Some recent events:

OECD's Cotis says oil price rise is major economic shock
PARIS (AFX) - OECD chief economist Jean-Philippe Cotis said the recent rise in oil prices following the impact of Hurricane Katrina in the US is a major economic shock.

Housing Slowdown Could Spell Trouble
The nation's red-hot housing market may finally be nearing its peak, meaning the end of double-digit annual percentage price gains for homeowners and potential trouble for more recent purchasers who stretched to buy.

Iran knocks Europe out
TEHRAN - In the high-stakes nuclear poker game between Iran and the EU-3 (Britain, France and Germany), Tehran has decided to call the EU's bluff and turn the game around.

Katrina's effects to ripple worldwide into 2006
LONDON - Hurricane Katrina's devastating assault on the U.S. Gulf Coast will ripple east and west across the oceans, economists and analysts warned, as the higher prices people have already seen for oil work their way through economies around the world.

_______________________

Considering the recent events that have transpired, I would like to get some recent opinions on what we may be facing.

With the possibility of an Iran invasion, pundits foretelling an American Hiroshima terrorist attack, the US economy dropping into a recession bordering on a depression, fuel costs sky rocketing, the Christian fundamentalists and Islamic militants praying for Armageddon, and the damage costs associated with climate change, things are rather foreboding to say the least.

Areas of concern:

- When it may surface?
- How will power structure and forces align?
- What may be the trigger points?
- Where are the areas of key interest?
- Recent developments that point to it?
- Why it may be the only solution?
- Any other parameters that should be addressed?

The trigger that I am looking at today is the excessive creation of money and credit to finance bubbles in this war driven economy and the usual solution is to make more war, a bigger war....alas an all consuming war of wars!

I hear the piper knocking, do you?

[edit on 6-9-2005 by Regenmacher]

Excellent topic first off.

Now according to my theory the next world war will be a combonation of several factors. Oil will be a driving force, along with military buildup in China, nuclear buildup in Iran, and possible instigation by the NWO.

I guessing that the lack of oil will cause massive economic failure, and in order to draw public attention away from that goverments will go to war. Basically it's going to be imperialism, which in today's world will cause another world war. However I feel that this time around China is going to play a large role in this war, and Russia will eventually be dragged into the war due to it's massive oil reserves.

I feel that the next world war will start out as being economic. Massive buyouts, tarriffs, embargos, blockades, etc. However I think it's going to slowly escalate into full blown imperialism, which will be made up of smaller scale invasions and skirmishes. However it's a small world, and eventually the major powers are going to collide head on. From there it's another world war. And in the end I theorize that it'll end with a New World Order. Pleasant though isn't it?

How far away?

Maybe months, maybe years.

Within our lifetime? Without a doubt. Unless something "big" happens sometime soon.

As soon as America decides to attack Iran/ North Korea/ China, some other country like that, Russia, China, India and some others will wage war on America.....and bingo - we have ourselves a global war[b/].

Originally posted by cyberdude78
Excellent topic first off.

Now according to my theory the next world war will be a combonation of several factors. Oil will be a driving force, along with military buildup in China, nuclear buildup in Iran, and possible instigation by the NWO.

I agree with most of that. But Iran... I think Iran is portraited to us as the 'real' Iraq, a country that does have nuclear weapons. I dont think that have, for at least anotehr decade (it takes a long time to enrich uranium).

I do believe Iran will be 'liberated' within the next five years, but, just as Iraq, for its Oil. Also Saudi Arabia, will fall into US hands. its already quite unstable for years, if the current government is overtrown by militia/muslim extremists (trained by the CIA), it would be a good reason for the US to invade and liberate Saudi Arabia too. Oil deffinately is the driving force.

Only if we change into a solar/wind power & hydrogen economy, WWIII can be averted. With all the oil men in the White House, and the lack of will in the EU and China to cut the oil dependency, I have doubts if it can be done in time.
Studies show that within 10 to 15 years from now, the Peak Oil will occur. Oil will then become too expensive to pump up. According to the USGS, Peak Oil is more than 40 years away, but they have it wrong. They use the wrong estimates. Oil companies benefit from larger oil wells and larger Oil reserves. Thats why Shell got into so much trouble last year, after it became clear they overestimated their oil reserves.
Also the demand for oil only increase dramatically, due to the economic boom in China and India.

Peak Oil will have China and the US (and the EU of course) fighting over the remaining oil fields. Iraq has about 11% of the worlds oil reservers, Saudi Arabia +/- 25%, so if the US 'liberates' the Saudi's too (after a CIA-led coup) the US wil have 36% of the worlds oil in their control. That wont please the EU and China...

Check out fromthewilderness.com for more info. The founder of the website wrote the book 'Crossing the Rubicon - The decline of the American empire at the end of the age of oil', a must read for every ATS member!!

I think a war quite litterally taking the entire would be a good thing if three things go right, the war has limited or no use of nuclear devices, one country/group of allies have a all out victory( total control of the world), leading to a world govt., and third that this victor would not discriminate against certain races(genocide, slavery etc.) These seem like very unreasonable outcomes but im praying.

Well if the World War took place and the "liberators" win. One of the first things on their agenda would be genocide, slavery etc. I'm not saying it will be a quick change, but our government (World Govt) would be the most corrupt and evil collaboration ever created. These people do NOT have our best interests in mind.

All i know is if you had power, real power, what would you do(lie, cheat, steal) to keep the power in your corner. As well as keeping your deeds quiet and not to raise suspicions.

There are so many senarios that can create the conditions of conflict or misinformation that could escalate from a "minor" exchange either conventional or nuclear into an all out WW3 killing billions on this planet.......

I read much about the subject..........and the overriding concern I see is that it no longer takes huge resources of a whole nation/state to obtain nuclear weapons..............and as a result the accountablity of warheads is suspect worldwide as to whom has what...........

Unless technology provides us a next step evolution to invalidate nuclear weapons (ie lasar defense rays to vaporize incoming missles??) they are likely to remain the ultimate chess peice to both negoiate and intimidate by all countries and/or organizations.

We were foolish as humans to think that NP treaties would halt the spread of these WMD.............and as a result we creep ever closer to the doomsday clock of nuclear destruction.....

Okay..........the most likely places to start WWW3?............watch what happens in Iran between Isreal and the US............it could pull in China and Russia if things start flying.................watch what happens in Tiawan........that could pull in China and the US...........They seem to be the most likely situations that could escalate out of hand........

Also.......a smuggled WMD by terrorist on US soil in an American Hiroshima type attack cause send our retailation senario into an escalation as well.....

Other areas are N. Korea.............Pakastian and India...........and well everyone with nukes looking at everyone else wait for just one country to pull the trigger...........

As a grade schooler during the Cuban Missle crisis I haven't seen things this tense since those days.........

I really think we are on the path to destruction that we won't see beyond 2008 to 2012 before all hell breaks loose here........

SunMicro cofounder Bill Joy worries that with so many leaders and grouops having the chance of putting their fingers on the red button that sooner or later one of them will be liable to press it................and the more people who have access to those buttons the higher the odds go on pushing it...........that is a real fear of his........and it is well warranted....

Back in the days of the cold war........you could face off two major superpowers and keep accountable of their actions.............that was bad enough but no longer is that the case.............

If our population and the increase of developing countries continues we will strip the Earth of resources to the point where aggression will occur........I believe when the US says we are "protecting our interests abroad" nowadays they mean exactly this.............

Humans have been so successful at surviving and procreating that we have become more like a cancer than a caretaker of this planet............and the end result will be WW3.

I don't want to sound like some fanatic here.........but I feel really bad for all the other species of this planet that suffer already from our unchecked population growth and those species that will become exinct after someone sets off the bombs........they are just innocent pawns acting out the random forces of natural selection that we will obliterate someday from our greed and self centered domination over this planet........

The Doomsday Clock still says 7 minutes to midnight...

But personally I think that it should be advanced a bit further than that.

I worry that now with the aftermath of Katrina and the somewhat poor handling of relief and support services the current US administration might be looking abroad for something to do to change the focus away from domestic issues.

That something might be Iran.

The story so far shows, that actions have not always been the result of confirmed threats, and even though I don't believe that another "oops, no WMDs afterall, we're so sorry" scenario is likely to happen, evidence can (and will) be fabricated if needed.

its 2005 and now ... so i would say we have 10 years until "N Day"

Prepare NOW! you will need a bike and lots of spare tires, you will need to learn water purification... and stockpile food and water for about 2-3 years!


Good Luck!

Originally posted by Where2Hide2006
its 2005 and now ... so i would say we have 10 years until "N Day"

Prepare NOW! you will need a bike and lots of spare tires, you will need to learn water purification... and stockpile food and water for about 2-3 years!


Good Luck!

Ten years seems optimistic. IMO I think you forgot the most important items; guns and ammo to protect your bikes, tires and food.

God help us all!! I hope this is just unreasonable paranoia but I don't think so because the handwriting is on the wall if you aren't blinded by wishful thinking. In a perverse sort of way I'm looking forward to the "Mad Max senaniro" but it probably will be closer to "On the Beach."

[edit on 6-9-2005 by whaaa]

[edit on 6-9-2005 by whaaa]

I think the Doomsday Clock should actually be put 3 minutes to midnite because right now the global political climate is becoming very "13 dayish" (JFK-Cuba) only it is being drawn out into months and years not days.

I too am of the mindset that between the years 2006-2013 (sick of the 2012 thing), we are entering "turbulent" (airplane term) winds. Something is going to give however I fear that the chips are stacked so high now that when something gives the result will be all the dominos or chips come crashing down taking much of the civilized world with it.

The current capitalistic-socialist system of economics is reaching the height of the financial bubble and there is no more room to expand in order to protect the system. I believe the true first shot will not be fired in Iraq or Iran but in the stock market and the housing markets of America and then filtered down as a shockwave to the other Western nations.

When enough people are poor, depressed and searching for salvation that is when the wolves invite the sheep over for dinner at their house.

I know world war 3 is going to happen sooner or later. I know because every nation want's to protect it's people. It's not just people that they want to protect but it own people. We are going to have wars like we have had through out history for as long as we keep the thought of protecting our own people, our own friends, our own family. We just have to think about the fact that with the technology we have now we don't have to many wars left to fight. Maybe just a few wars depending on how big they are or when ever we can see the bigger picture.

Originally posted by Manincloak
How far away?

Maybe months, maybe years.

Within our lifetime? Without a doubt. Unless something "big" happens sometime soon.

As soon as America decides to attack Iran/ North Korea/ China, some other country like that, Russia, China, India and some others will wage war on America.....and bingo - we have ourselves a global war[b/].

of course its always america thats gonna go attack the entire world.
unfortunately we(americans) tend to stick our fingers into other ppls business but we are not imperialistic.all this talk about invading iran but even if we wanted to we are kinda preoccupied in iraq now.besides we are not total loners iether.if there is a ww3 i dont think that the us will be all by ourselves.setting iraq disagreements aside, we have very strong ties with europe and our relationship with india is improving as well.
i say that the us,europe,japan,part of south america,possibly india,should strengthen ties and try to peacefully bring unity. we must fight against multipolarity. im not saying that the us always needs to be world police but if you have multiple major centers of power in the world then wars are all but inevitable. thats why we need to form a central alliance of power.
by the way, if any of my thoughts seem like they dont make sense im really tired and need sleep

Our Air Superiority is ABSOLUTE at this moment in time, if you control the skies, you control the battlefield (We've seen this twice in the Gulf now- and so has the rest of the World, and most of those planes were 20+ years old). Until someone can match us plane for plane and skilled pilot for skilled pilot (yeah right), they can't bring a war to us (not a conventional one at least). No one out there today can even begin to think about doing this, and therefore the possibility of a conventional War (World War III) is very, very slim.

That is not to say that a MAD (mutually assured destruction) scenario couldn't take place. The detonation of a Nuclear device within the confines of US soil could well start and end World War III in less than 12 hours. At the point NUKES are used, all bets are off, and many 'automated' safeguards exist that would sense the NUKE and launch EVERYTHING from EVERYWHERE - it's not a World War, it's the extinction of our planet.

Fighting Terrorism is a Global effort, but not a Global conflict.

Originally posted by SneakySnake
Our Air Superiority is ABSOLUTE at this moment in time, if you control the skies, you control the battlefield (We've seen this twice in the Gulf now- and so has the rest of the World, and most of those planes were 20+ years old). Until someone can match us plane for plane and skilled pilot for skilled pilot (yeah right), they can't bring a war to us (not a conventional one at least). No one out there today can even begin to think about doing this, and therefore the possibility of a conventional War (World War III) is very, very slim.

That is not to say that a MAD (mutually assured destruction) scenario couldn't take place. The detonation of a Nuclear device within the confines of US soil could well start and end World War III in less than 12 hours. At the point NUKES are used, all bets are off, and many 'automated' safeguards exist that would sense the NUKE and launch EVERYTHING from EVERYWHERE - it's not a World War, it's the extinction of our planet.

Fighting Terrorism is a Global effort, but not a Global conflict.

The government is very MAD... with that MAD project... if you die, you die, and don't kill everybody because you died... You're not as important as everyone else... you're not special... The MAD project is totally crazy and if it exist for real, i hope that a hacker could hack this and desactivate it before it's too late..

Originally posted by SneakySnake
Our Air Superiority is ABSOLUTE at this moment in time, if you control the skies, you control the battlefield

If www3 was to be fought ww2 style i`d say you are correct,dont get caught along with the common US Joe blow that is puffed up with patriotism enough to believe you are unbeatable,if it goes nuclear and biological we are all looser`s.

The American deficit is astronomical not helped to say the least with Iraq and now Katrina which is causing a monumental strain on your economy.
Katrina is affecting not just the US in Australia petrol prices have risen nearly 50 cents a litre and has been forecast to go up that same amount in the next few months this is crippling our business`s.
Lots of different scenarios could happen and more than likely one that you would`nt have wanted to believe or could have imagined will happen.

Either way it would be an understatement to say we are in trouble times globally not just the US.

Politics is a very secretive game. We often see the "behind the scenes story" being either covered up or ignored by the population. Those who look upon current events with a truly open mind can see a lot of fake smiles, uncomfortable handshakes and lies being spoken from the mouths of diplomats and politicians from each nation. Because of reasons of national security, information regarding one nations’ view of another nation is hidden for fear of straining relations between the two powers. This is the most basic strategy which has been used ever since the creation of diplomacy itself.

It would only be rational to assume a quarrel would be averted in order to maintain a peaceful understanding whenever possible. If this is true, then it is also rational to assume if a nation concluded a disagreement must be confronted, that nation would attempt to keep those unsettling matters hidden until a time it believes it holds more cards than the opposing nation. Obviously such issues can’t always be solved with words, so we have wars.

If say Russia decided the United States threatens its economic future, and as a result militaristic future which could then result in a threat to its sovereignty, Russia would quietly prepare an assault if at all possible which is highly likely to succeed. Russia would not leave a trail of signs which suggests such a thing is inevitable, Russia would instead leave very little evidence of its intentions. When prepared, Russia (and its allies) would strike swiftly leaving many confused, unsure who is attacking, why they are attacking, and how to thwart the attack. I should doubt anyone finds my suggestion debatable.

I don’t believe there will be very much warning when World War 3 begins. The players are now all veterans at the game, and know which pieces do what best. It seems to me that any attack on any super power by another super power if the aggressor hopes to annex territories currently held by the recipient of the attack will be well planned and unseen. For example, Russia would not launch nuclear weapons in the direction of anything American then expect Russia to survive the retaliation; Russia would plant nuclear devices in US cities and detonate them followed by a ground, air and naval assault, a nation-wide Pearl Harbor.

Of course many speculate as to what might cause a nation to make such a daring move, but any number of events could be a precursor. Oil *might* be a reason to attack, but I doubt the world would be as calm as it is right now if there weren’t already plans in place to remove the superpowers from their dependence on oil. Wars to take control of oil resources would only be a temporary fix anyhow, a short-term investment in a long-term problem.

No, I believe a war of that magnitude would be due to fear, a nations lack of a sense of security, much like WW1 and WW2. The world saw Germany conquering its neighbors, and didn’t want to wait until it was their turn to be conquered. We can get over oil (there are other energy sources, hydrogen for example), we can get over an economic crisis (lower taxes, create jobs, etc), we can even get over a terrorist attack (rebuild), but we cannot get over fear. Fear is always with us, and is our greatest enemy. One cannot expect a fearful person to stand trembling forever, eventually that person will strike out so that he can walk his streets without wondering if he is safe, and so he can sleep without wondering if tomorrow will be worse, or even unbearable.

We see Russia, China and India have become allies of sorts. Russia fears us (Cold War), China fears us (Taiwan is still free) and India fears us (assisting Pakistan). Russia and China has already began practicing working together in combat (See here.), and Russia now plans to practice with India (See here.). I believe that could be one of the biggest warnings out there, but at the same time one can’t be sure. Those War Games may not be practice for an attack on a common enemy, but if they’re not it seems illogical to play such games with a nation which could be your enemy in the near future. Why would any of them want a potential foe to know their military capabilities unless they planned to work together in a very beneficial way? They wouldn’t, and trust isn’t gained that easily.

The most pressing matter in my mind in regards to the WW3 possibility: Russia, India and China are all friends, is the US their friend, or is the US perceived as the anti-social bully? At the same time, perhaps it's thoughts such as that which makes America the paranoid one, and will result in the United States reacting badly (and with force) causing a war which spans the globe. We'll just have to wait it out and see for ourselves while we watch inquisitively wondering what will end up being the “justifiable” means which causes the end, or at least the end for one side.

But you know, I hear bad things come in threes.

What I don't understand about this very insightful topic, is why everyone expects nuclear wars. Why is this? Because of the complete destruction? There's a 1001 other ways WW3 could be fought. And chemical warfare is definitely at the top of the list, not?

And not forgetting "simple" methods like flying planes into tactical places. The Japanese used this method in WW2, and it turned out to be very effective. The Muslims re-invented this method. And the problem with this method is that these people have a cause they're not scared of dying for! And show me one US, UK, etc. soldier that would willingly go on a suicide mission if it meant that he could take a hundred enemies with him to the grave?
These nuts know their people would die for their cause and they'll use it to their advantage!

The point is that it's not always military power that wins the war. Dare I mention Vietnam? This is a third world country (?), yet the US with all their mighty war machines had a tough time with these "primitive folk"...
I know Guerrilla wars, hand-to-hand combat and nuclear or chemical wars are two completely different ballgames, but the fact remains that people play a bigger role in a war than powerful aircrafts, machine guns, etc.

And who says it's going to be (a) superpower(s) that's going to start the next war... No "superpower" could stand forever. Greeks, Romans, Vikings, English and now the US... (Just to mention a random few!) For all we know Australia may be the next to "rule the earth"!? Does anyone know what they're doing down there? Does anyone know its Nuclear Capability? Ah, but they don't have a reason... What was America's reason for becoming "the strongest nation on the planet"? Huh?

Ever heard of the sleeping dragon?

Vietnam was a guerilla war fought with conventional weapons, if we limited it to airstrikes, on both south and north vietnam, they would have surrendered.

As was the case in the cold war, the two countries able to put a nuclear warhead anywhere on the planet is still USA and Russia. China comes in a close third or maybe they are hand in hand with israel with nuclear capabilities. India and Pakistan could destroy each other, and Iran is a relative new comer to the game. Am i leaving anybody out? oh, north korea if they have any they could hit japan, (Psssst there are cruise missiles in japan poited back at you!) compliments of the USA, probably the same thing with Taiwan. Oh i forgot the french and british. Which makes really laugh because it was the french bastards that sold all the nuke technology and is a big part of weapons proliferation.

Has anyone considered the possibility the US has orbital weapons platforms?

Originally posted by Gemwolf
What I don't understand about this very insightful topic, is why everyone expects nuclear wars. Why is this? Because of the complete destruction? There's a 1001 other ways WW3 could be fought. And chemical warfare is definitely at the top of the list, not?
Ever heard of the sleeping dragon?

I cant answer for anyone else,but for me i expect www3 to be nuclear biological etc because it would only take one idiot with his finger on the button to start one.

I cant imagine the amount of countries that have them and the amount that they have,in a global war without it being used at point.

It would be like having a gun locked away in your house for protection(burglar),and if the situation you thought was warranted would`nt you use it?

So it could come down to somebody that thinks its warranted even though it may have been an unarmed burglar.What i`m trying to say is if say for example the US suspected another country would use them they would probably preempt a strike.

Let alone Armageddon scenarios of the bible (which is where most of this WWW3 fear comes from and also the conspiracy theories that are told of the NWO,they might not need what we would call a good reason to wipe countries off the map.