Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

originally posted by: GAOTU789
It can get added to the growing list of war crimes they have committed.

The list is pretty long already. However, it'll be a list that has apportioned blame to both the political and military leadership, and the tactical command on the ground. There will be quite a lot of Russians who will be wanted to answer for the crimes in this war, at all levels, and from Putin right down to the ignorant peasant who participated in rape.

"Just following orders" is no defence any more.

a reply to: paraphi

You can say the same about ukraine

a reply to: Nexttimemaybe

You will. No one else with a shred of decency would.

Pray tell, why is your boy constantly targeting civilians with their missiles, drones and shells?

Nice, eh?

originally posted by: Bishop2199
Russian nuclear weapons 'more powerful than Hiroshima bomb' arrive in Belarus

Belarus has begun taking delivery of tactical nuclear weapons from Russia, including some that are three times more powerful than the atomic bombs dropped on Japan in 1945.

So much for waiting until July 6 and 7 like previously stated. The nuclear weapons are early!

I think every nuke today outside of smaller tactical nukes is much stronger than Little Man or Fat Boy was.

LM/FB 13 to 20 kt TnT, other nukes today 100 to 25,000 kt TnT. I think Russia's biggest is like 50,000 kt TnT.

I say this because I'm not sure of the point they are trying to make.

originally posted by: GAOTU789

100%. They are in control of the damn, the power house, the sluice gates and the spillways. Whether intentional or negligence, this is 100% Russia's fault. They'll spin a 1000 tales to explain why it's not as Russians do but the facts leave them with the sole ownership of a major war crime. It can get added to the growing list of war crimes they have committed.

Did you hear that Russian soldiers called home who basically said they knew about it and moved before it happened, but it was much larger than expected? They were bitching they had to swim and leave gear and they should have been moved farther than originally told.

When you start to add all these little pieces they really blend together quite well.

Anyone seen Cavv?
He's been MIA since 14/06.
I miss my daily updates.

Hope all is ok mate?

Russia-Ukraine war live: Zelenskiy says counteroffensive ‘slower than desired’; Putin says Sarmat nuclear missiles ready soon

"Counteroffensive progress 'slower than desired' says Zelenskiy
Volodymyr Zelenskiy said battlefield progress in Kyiv’s counteroffensive against Russian forces had been “slower than desired”, the BBC reported on Wednesday.

“Some people believe this is a Hollywood movie and expect results now. It’s not,” it quoted the Ukrainian president as saying in an interview.

Ukraine has reported recapturing eight villages in the south in the last two weeks.

Though small, the advances are the biggest by its forces since November as they push into heavily fortified and mined Russian-held areas." www.theguardian.com... be-unveiled-in-london

Putin says Russia's new Sarmat nuclear missiles soon ready for deployment.......................

"Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that Russia’s new generation of Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missiles, which are capable of carrying 10 or more nuclear warheads, would soon be deployed for combat duty, Reuters reports.

In a speech to new graduates of military academies, Putin stressed the importance of Russia’s “triad” of nuclear forces that can be launched from land, sea or air.

“The most important task here is the development of the nuclear triad, which is a key guarantee of Russia’s military security and global stability,” he said.

“Already about half of the units and formations of the Strategic Missile Forces are equipped with the latest Yars systems, and the troops are being re-equipped with modern missile systems with the Avangard hypersonic warhead.”

The first Sarmat launchers would be put on combat duty “in the near future” www.theguardian.com... be-unveiled-in-london

originally posted by: ufoorbhunter
Putin says Russia's new Sarmat nuclear missiles soon ready for deployment.......................

Putin is a dick. Threatening nukes, even by their deployment, just shows how broken Russia has become.

originally posted by: paraphi

originally posted by: ufoorbhunter
Putin says Russia's new Sarmat nuclear missiles soon ready for deployment.......................

Putin is a dick. Threatening nukes, even by their deployment, just shows how broken Russia has become.

From a Russian perspective the rest of the world has them surrounded and has been baiting them non stop since 1991. I'm amazed it's taken them this long to strike back.

originally posted by: paraphi

originally posted by: ufoorbhunter
Putin says Russia's new Sarmat nuclear missiles soon ready for deployment.......................

Putin is a dick. Threatening nukes, even by their deployment, just shows how broken Russia has become.

Yep, no argument.

Now do the West!

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

How have they been baiting them?

originally posted by: paraphi

originally posted by: ufoorbhunter
Putin says Russia's new Sarmat nuclear missiles soon ready for deployment.......................

Putin is a dick. Threatening nukes, even by their deployment, just shows how broken Russia has become.

It certainly smacks of desperation.

originally posted by: ufoorbhunter
From a Russian perspective the rest of the world has them surrounded and has been baiting them non stop since 1991. I'm amazed it's taken them this long to strike back.

That's a contrived narrative and inconsistently applied.

What Russia is afraid of - as has happened - is all its old vassals becoming more successful and prosperous, because that shows the lie that the way Russia does things in "better", or "special". The anti-NATO blabbering is an invented complaint. The real compliant is that Poland, Latvia et al. are better places to live than Russia.

Imagine a successful Ukraine to a Russian politician? It would be complicated to try and explain why Russia remains poor when Ukraine becomes more prosperous.

It has got sod-all to do with being encircled, or NATO, or Nazi's, or Jews, or whatever grievance of the moment. It has everything to do with political protectionism of the Russian elites, and their fear of the inevitable demands for political change when Russia remains stagnant and corrupt, while everyone else has moved on.

Russia wants to control countries to keep them compliant and corrupt.

originally posted by: JinMI

originally posted by: paraphi

originally posted by: ufoorbhunter
Putin says Russia's new Sarmat nuclear missiles soon ready for deployment.......................

Putin is a dick. Threatening nukes, even by their deployment, just shows how broken Russia has become.

Yep, no argument.

Now do the West!

I know that made me chuckle.

The poster “paraphi” isn’t even from the U.S. probably and yet is cheerleading and pointing at others lol

It’s like some people that grew up desensitized constantly thinking about U.S.A. being top dawg.

Yet, completely forgetting that it’s generally known that U.S/NATO have nukes parked on Russias doorstep for decades now.

And want to add more further on the door step like it’s no big deal.

Cuba anyone?

Remember, it’s about Ukraine’s “sovereignty” (insert Puppy tears)

As an American, to say anything less that we don’t harp on being top dawg and flex (all.the.time) on everyone with an iron fist would be idiotic.

Here's a claim you don't see very much, that Russia will have soldier shortages before Ukraine does.

We've all seen the stats that Russia has over 3 times the population of Ukraine so it seems logical that in a war of attrition, Russia would outlast Ukraine, so Ukraine being aware of this is trying very hard to defend themselves intelligently and not lose more troops than they have to. So how can someone claim that Russia will run out of soldiers before Ukraine?

First, I'm not sure if it's completely true, but I'll cover what the video says. Remember when Putin announced mobilization to add more soldiers to his army? There are various numbers of how many were mobilized but the video uses the 300,000 number which is neither the highest nor the lowest estimate around so it might be the right ballpark. But the video mentions a quite high number for the number of Russians leaving to avoid mobilization, 1.2 million. I've heard lower numbers like 1 million, 800,000, even half a million, but I previously thought a million might be a good estimate.

Now you might think just a million leaving doesn't reduce Russia's population all that much, however, we shouldn't compare against the total population but against the fighting age males population, where it constitutes a much higher percentage, so that's one factor to consider.

Another factor to consider is that Ukraine is getting weaponry from many countries in the western world, while Russia is trying to make their own and begging for imports from Iran and N Korea, which they've been getting in small amounts. They also asked China but China so far claims to not be providing weapons to Russia. So what does Russia need to make more weapons? Labor and materials, and with those 1 million or 1.2 million leaving the country, plus the 300,000-500,000 mobilized soldiers has left a deficit in the work force, so there's a labor shortage in Russian factories where they are trying to make weaponry like tanks, ammunition, etc.

The video claims this is why it doesn't predict another 300,000-500,000 soldiers mobilized in 2023 like Russia did in 2022, because they need the people running their factories, to make the ammunition. Ukraine on the other hand is not relying on its own population to run the factories making ammo etc, since the ammo is largely imported from the US and European countries (2 million artillery shells have been promised to Ukraine)

Beyond the video, there may already be some signs that Russia's military has more infantry shortages than Ukraine's military. The Wagner group was one of Russia's most powerful assets and their ranks have been estimated to be reduced from about 45,000 (including a lot of prisoners), to a mere 5,000, which estimate is bolstered by seeing a corresponding reduction in how much of the front Wagner covered, being reduced from a large stretch of the front to only a tiny section around Bakhmut before they withdrew completely.

Ukraine claims to have about 40,000 troops in reserve trained for the counteroffensive, most of which are not used yet, while Russia seems to be trying to use everything they have to hold the current front lines, and not entirely holding them since Ukraine is making progress, slowly. So I'm wondering if the Russian troop shortage has already happened; I guess we will see how the rest of the year plays out.

Why Russia Will Run Out of Soldiers Before Ukraine

The video was posted on youtube on June 20, though the script sounds more like end of May/beginning of June script.

I think the video makes some interesting points about why the Russians have to decide whether they want people soldiering or running factories, because they apparently don't have enough for both with their increased military production needs, having largely used up their stockpiles. One other difference between Russia and Ukraine the video mentions: Ukraine is often targeting Russian ammo stockpiles, while Russia instead seemed to be more interested in attacking civilian infrastructure, so this puts even more pressure on Russia's needs to produce more ammo.

Russia may have shot themselves in the foot by allowing the Kahovka dam to break (though poor maintenance or blowing it up, whichever happened). There was a large reservoir created by that dam, and Russia figured there was no way Ukraine troops could march through that reservoir, so they didn't continue building their defense lines south of the reservoir.

However, as a result of the dam breaking, the reservoir has now largely drained and this video at the 3 minute mark raises the question of whether it's now possible for Ukraine troops to do what was previously impossible, march across the land that used to be the reservoir, but is now a desert. The video shows a photo of what the dry land looks like now, that used to be reservoir:

21 Jun: NICE. Russians Were NOT PREPARED FOR THIS ATTACK


I guess those red triangles in the preview show where the Russian defense lines including "dragons teeth", trenches and other defenses ended, and that a path to the west of those may now be possible.

Ukraine would probably still need a small pontoon bridge to cover the water that's left, but they might be able to cross now, where the reservoir used to be, into an area relatively free of defense lines as the preview to the video suggests.

a reply to: Arbitrageur

There's a video by Jake Broe, a YT vlogger on the war in Ukrainia, who points out that besides the ground where the former reservoir is drying out, there are five more dams upstream, all controlled by Ukraine. For a short time the Ukrainians could cut off all flow of the river into the reservoir area and down stream of that, thereby making it even easier to traverse.



This might be part of the reason why the offensive isn't going great guns so far. Instead of pouring more troops into the current assault areas, the Ukrainians may be redeploying them to this area.

The second topic covered is the targeting of bridges connecting Crimea to southern Ukraine by Storm Shadow missiles. Though not addressed in this video, there is also a railroad bridge to the west of the road bridge discussed, that was also it. These strikes will cut supply lines of Russian forces defending against the offensive.

The last topic covered in the video addresses the possibility that the Russians are possibly planning to blow up the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, and that the dam demolition was a dry run for this, in order to see what the western and global response would be, and there wasn't much of one.

22 June Update

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the front and reportedly made gains on June 22. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in the Kreminna area in Luhansk Oblast, in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and on the administrative border between Zaporizhia and Donetsk oblasts.

Russian and Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks on the Kupyansk-Svatove line on June 22. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations near Synkivka (8km northeast of Kupyansk). . . . . A Russian source claimed that Russian forces are unable to resume full-scale offensive operations south of Kreminna due to lack of reserves on the Luhansk frontline.

Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack in western Donetsk Oblast on June 22. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian ground attack near Vuhledar (30km southwest of Donetsk City).

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on June 22. The Russian MoD and other Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian ground attacks on the Novodanylivka-Robotyne line (up to 12km south of Orikhiv). Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces attacked near Pyatykhatky (23km southwest of Orikhiv) and that control of the settlement has changed multiple times.

Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces are transferring GRU Spetsnaz units to Kursk and Bryansk oblasts to fight Russian partisans. The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on June 22 that Russian forces transferred 50 GRU servicemen to Tyotkino, Kursk Oblast and Suzemivka, Bryansk Oblast.

More at URL above.

@Freeborn--

Cheers

Prigozhin finally speaking some truth....he's probably gonna fall out the next window he gets near.

An intreasting new video from Prigozhin

"Ukraine did not bomb the Donbass for 8 years, but only exchanged blows with the Russian army, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were not going to attack the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Defense is deceiving the public and the president, - Prigozhin."

The video itself was a segment from the longer video he released however the key points I'll highlight that he mentioned The AFU was not going to attack the Russia
■ The Ministry of the Russian Federation is deceiving the people.
■ Donbas was robbed by the FSB, the administration and Russian oligarchs.
■"No one destroyed 60 Leopards. This is complete total nonsense. The Russian army is retreating in all directions and shedding a lot of blood"

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More...

OMG

"What was the war for? The war was needed so that Shoigu received the "star of the hero." The war was needed by the oligarchic clan that rules Russia. The war was needed to install Medvedchuk as president of Ukraine" - Prigozhin

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