Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: Freeborn

Lovely people, the Russians.

11 June Update

Ukrainian and Russian forces continued limited ground attacks around Bakhmut on June 11. Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces attacked near Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut), and that Russian Spetsnaz units are trying to push Ukrainian forces from positions near Klishchiivka.

Ukrainian forces made marginal gains near Avdiivka as Russian forces continued limited ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line as of June 11. Geolocated footage shows that Ukrainian forces made marginal advances south of Nevelske (13km southwest of Avdiivka) as of June 11.

Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks near the administrative border of Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts and made gains as of June 11. Geolocated footage published on June 11 indicates that Ukrainian forces liberated Neskuchne (immediately south of Velyka Novosilka) and Blahodatne (5km south of Velyka Novosilka) on June 10.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Russia is preparing evacuations in the occupied city of Armiansk in northern Crimea amid the Kakhovka dam breach, as well as "sabotage operations" at a factory in the region, Ukraine's military intelligence reported on June 12.

A shortage of water coming through the North Crimean Canal (NCC) has critically disrupted the functioning of the Crimean Titan plant, a factory producing titanium dioxide, according to the report.

Evacuation preparations are reportedly underway for Russian proxy leaders in the area, as well as the local population.

Source

Russia officials admit to laying explosives in the plant. Sound familiar?

"A terrorist attack on the Crimean Titan enterprise, which the Russian invaders are preparing, will mean an artificial man-made catastrophe, terrible in its consequences," Ukraine's military intelligence wrote, as around 200 tons of ammonia, stored in the facility, could be released into the atmosphere."

Another Dam Blown

Ukraine has accused Russia of blowing up another dam as part of its efforts to blunt the Ukrainian counteroffensive underway in the south and east of that country. Details are still emerging, but the dam in question is along the Mokri Yaly River, in western Donetsk, in a region where Ukrainian forces are said to have made their biggest gains. The incident comes six days after a significant portion of the larger Kakhovka dam was blown up, causing extensive flooding in the Kherson region, with both sides blaming each other for the destruction. You can read our coverage of the earlier incident here.

Things continue to escalate.

12 June Update

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the front and made territorial gains on June 12. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported on June 12 that Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk and Tavrisk (Zaporizhia) directions have advanced 6.5km and retaken 90 square kilometers of territory over the past week.

Russian forces reportedly launched a counterattack on June 12 in western Donetsk Oblast following Ukrainian tactical gains near the Vremivka salient on June 11. Russian sources reported that elements of the Russian 127th Motorized Rifle Division (5th Combined Arms Army, Eastern Military District) launched a large counterattack against Ukrainian forces in the Vremivka salient on June 12.

Ukrainian and Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks around Bakhmut on June 12. Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty reported that Ukrainian forces advanced from 250m to 700m on the flanks of Bakhmut.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Russia State TV Warns U.S. a Nuclear Strike Will Happen—'In the Crosshairs'

Hopefully, those in charge are a little wiser than the Russian state TV hosts.

A Russian state TV host has warned that if the Ukraine war escalates to a "nuclear phase," the Kremlin will strike the U.S. with nuclear weapons as it is "in the crosshairs."

Source

President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that Russia was considering withdrawing from the Black Sea grain deal, saying that Moscow had been "cheated" over implementation of the parts of the accord that concerned its own exports.

Source

He said, "Europe was the largest importer of Ukrainian grain and this was providing a key source of foreign currency to Kyiv."

I guess Putin should not have invaded Ukraine to take the resources. He should have brokered a trade agreement for the desired resources.

The West has not imposed sanctions on Russian grain and other food exports but they have been hampered by other restrictions on insurance and other areas.

a reply to: Bishop2199

That is the terrible irony of this war.

Russia had many options short of war. A combo of carrot and stick could have gotten them most anything they wanted from Ukraine.

Cheers

a reply to: Bishop2199

Russian State TV hosts burble absolute fricking nonsense at the drop of a hat. They've talked about nuking the UK, how all of the Ukraine needs to be annexed by Russia, about how Russia's hypersonic super-duper-ooper missiles will win the war, and so on ad infinitum. Seriously, they're either drunk or insane or deliberately talking a load of spherical objects.

Putin says no need for new mobilisation for now, quips about trying again to take Kyiv

Ukraine has lost over 160 of its tanks and 25%-30% of the vehicles supplied from abroad, he, while Russia had lost 54 tanks.

Now he's lost it.

Didn't he get the updates?

Ukraine is taking back their country and Russia is losing ground.

Oh, and also, his top general was killed.

a reply to: Bishop2199

Once the Ukrainians break through the fortified line in enough places, the Russians will have to fall back. Their army, in the main, is not trained to fight maneuver warfare.

ETA:

Vladimir Rogov, a Russian-installed official in part of the southern Zaporizhzhia region which is under Moscow’s control, said major-general Sergei Goryachev, chief of staff of Russia’s 35th army, had been killed on the Zaporizhzhia front on Monday

Cheers

An interesting video from a Russian journalist. It has a a Russian slant and the guy in the video is a true believer but I find this guys takes pretty enlightinging overall and this video in particular shows how someone who's been there from the Russian side feels about all this. Again, only one mans opinions but it is a view into at least a portion of Russian thinking.



The next two are on the damn and provide a reminder for everyone that context matters and a plausible explanation to how the damn ended up collapsing.

First the story...

Context always matters

and then the video...



All worth the watch and read, regardless of your beliefs. Unless you're a true believer like the dude in the first video, then all I can say is good luck. You're most likely not watching or reading any of my links anyway.

a reply to: Bishop2199

Just more scorched earth Russian war fighting tactics.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

a reply to: F2d5thCavv2

British historian Dr Mark Felton has a video out detailing how British authorities smuggled in and resettled some 8000 Waffen SS mem of the 14 Grenadier (1st Galizien ) Division after the war

www.youtube.com...

They were Ukrainian nationialist who enlisted to fight the Soviets in hope of winning independence from the Soviets

originally posted by: GAOTU789
An interesting video from a Russian journalist. It has a a Russian slant and the guy in the video is a true believer but I find this guys takes pretty enlightinging overall and this video in particular shows how someone who's been there from the Russian side feels about all this. Again, only one mans opinions but it is a view into at least a portion of Russian thinking.

The next two are on the damn and provide a reminder for everyone that context matters and a plausible explanation to how the damn ended up collapsing.

First the story...

Context always matters

and then the video...

All worth the watch and read, regardless of your beliefs. Unless you're a true believer like the dude in the first video, then all I can say is good luck. You're most likely not watching or reading any of my links anyway.

Both the videos are good, thanks for posting them.

Some takeaways from the Russian lawyer:
-He said the reports about Russian soldiers not getting paid were true...sort of. He himself didn't get paid for the first three months due to processing time for the paperwork or something, and lots of others in the same situation throwing tantrums. But eventually he did get paid everything he was owed and the 3 months unpaid got paid all at once. USD equivalent was about $2500/month from the military and $600/month from Moscow so $3100/mo, though he didn't explain why he gets an extra $600 monthly from Moscow.

So that's good money for Russia, and he says it's a lot easier to save money as a soldier since you can't buy anything out on the battlefield. But still, he paid $700 for a pair of sunglasses, which seems so far over the top to me when I consider $70 to be way too much. But paying $7000 for potentially life-saving body armor, that makes a lot more sense. As he said, what good does it to save your money not buying that, if you're not alive to spend it?

His take on Crimea was that Ukraine and the west started the conflict because Ukraine was arming for years and he thought they were going to try to take Crimea from Russia. That was really the main problem I had with what he said, should have said Ukraine was going to take it back; he seemed to have missed or glossed over that Russia took it from Ukraine to begin with, in 2014.

Regarding the Dam hypothesis video, that sort of aligns with some other reporting on one story that seemed to think the dam (not damn) failed. The big question there is what the seismic data are really telling us and I think he admitted in the video that interpreting that can be a bit tricky. It would have been nice if some third party (like possibly Turkey who negotiated the grain deal between Russia and Ukraine) could have negotiated a geographically limited cease-fire in the flooded region of Ukraine to allow humanitarian workers access to address the humanitarian crisis without getting shot.

Russian President Vladimir Putin answered questions from War Reporters and Bloggers today for over 2 hours.

Some Highlights: www.usatoday.com...

He is cutting off the flow of weapons into Ukraine? That would certainly end the war. I guess this is the equivalent of pulling the plug, when you get tired of the game.

originally posted by: carewemust
Russian President Vladimir Putin answered questions from War Reporters and Bloggers today for over 2 hours.

Some Highlights: www.usatoday.com...

He is cutting off the flow of weapons into Ukraine? That would certainly end the war. I guess this is the equivalent of pulling the plug, when you get tired of the game.

Not sure why you are asking if he is cutting off the flow of weapons. He said nothing to suggest that. According to the article, what Putin said was that:

...the fighting would end quickly if U.S. and NATO would only stop providing military assistance to Ukraine

Yeah that would likely be the case. However the fighting would also stop if Russia withdraws from Ukraine. Don't see either happening.

a reply to: Arbitrageur. Ryan McBeth may know something about military matters, but he clearly knows jack squat about the evidentiary details of this dam failure. He claims the seismic signal came from a station in Norway, when in fact it came from a station in Rumania, which is part of NORSAR, the Norwegian seismic array. And he gives very vague, hand-waving reasons why this data doesn't show anything of consequence, whereas in fact its timing is consistent with the observed 2:54 am noises associated with the dam the early morning of the dam failure.

He also claims that the Russian special forces who would've had to sabotage the dam would've had to carry thousands of pounds of explosive on their backs to do so. First, there have to be elevators to the lower confines of the power house, otherwise how is heavy equipment ever brought into or out of the powerhouse? And as Ukraine has reported that the dam was mined as far back as October last year, the Russians would've had plenty of time to haul in explosives on their backs if that was indeed necessary.

This was a matter he clearly had no business commenting on. I used to watch his videos with some interest, but not anymore.

originally posted by: MrInquisitive
Yeah that would likely be the case. However the fighting would also stop if Russia withdraws from Ukraine. Don't see either happening.

Yes, this is the screwed-up-can't-compute-the-logic-face that some people just don't understand.

All fighting will end if Russia simply withdrew from the parts of Ukraine they have militarily occupied. It's got sod-all to do what weapons Ukraine has, but all to do with the presence of Russian troops on someone else's land.

a reply to: Bishop2199

SOmetimes, I think he's living in his own world and he is very far from what is going on.