Russia Ukraine Update Thread - part 3

a reply to: Freeborn

Nothing. Game over, man, game over....

tenor.com...

If Prigozhin is for real with his recent threats,surely he will be accidently falling out of a high window pretty soon-

In the video statement, Prigozhin says the Wagner group is "declaring war on the Russian Ministry of Defence", and says: "PMC Wagner Commanders' Council made a decision: the evil brought by the military leadership of the country must be stopped.

www.msn.com...

If he's not for real and its just one massive troll against Ukraine and NATO,then I gotta hand it to him-he is putting in an Oscar worthy performance.

This could get interesting. ABC news in Australia reporting that Wagner Group forces have claimed they have crossed the border from Ukraine back into Russia and are marching on Moscow. Video footage of Russian military in the streets in Moscow and Rostov-On-Don.

www.abc.net.au...-blog-post-32702

Edit: the troops in Rostov-On-Don may be Wagner Group??


Another Edit: Claims Wagner have shot down Russian Military helicopter. Unfolding, foggy situation atm.

originally posted by: face23785
a reply to: MrInquisitive

That was interesting. I have to disagree with him though that NATO should commit to joining the war if Russia blew up the nuclear plant.

To be clear, that would be a dangerous and crazy escalation by Putin. I just don't think we should box ourselves in. I would make clear that that's a possible response, but not commit to it being the only one. Surely such an action would have to face tougher repercussions than just more token sanctions from the West though.

I'm not necessarily advocating NATO involvement, but some form of stronger warning against tampering with the nuclear plant needs to be made, and I don't know what else such a threat would be other than a total blockade of Russia and any country conducting business with it. And Poland, Rumania and the Baltic states will be none to pleased if the reactor is sabotaged. Ukraine already has one nuclear exclusion zone on account of the Soviet regime, they don't need another on account of the Russian one as well.

But this point it looks like civil war or a coup may be starting in Russia. Whether that makes Putin more or less likely to blow the plant is hard to say. Things could escalate without NATO getting involved.

It's also interesting that Prigozhin has previously and still is singling out Sergei Shoigu and other elements of the Russian high command, but hasn't attacked Putin. Clearly he is trying to put a wedge between the Kremlin politicians and oligarchs, and the military, and obviously sees himself as the military savior of the country. In any case, prospects are looking better by the hour for the Ukrainian offensive.

23 June Update

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin appears to have launched an armed rebellion on June 23 to force a leadership change within the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) which is unlikely to succeed. Prigozhin amplified a video from a Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel on June 23 which reportedly shows the aftermath of a missile strike on a rear-area Wagner camp and accused the Russian MoD of conducting that strike. . . . Prigozhin also notably accused Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of personally planning an operation to destroy Wagner and claimed that 25,000 Wagner personnel are prepared to act.

Kremlin newswire TASS reported that security measures have been strengthened in Moscow and that Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard) special police (OMON) and special rapid response (SOBR) units have been alerted of the situation.

Russian forces conducted another series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on June 23, primarily targeting a Ukrainian airfield in Khmelnytskyi Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched 14 Kh-101/555 cruise missiles from strategic aviation over the Caspian Sea, targeting Khmelnystkyi Oblast and the Khmelnystki airfield, and reported that Ukrainian forces shot down all of the missiles.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on June 23. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops had partial success on the Novodanylivka-Robotyne line (just south of Orikhiv) and the Mala Tokmachka-Novofedorivka line (just southeast of Orikhiv).

Ukrainian forces continued strikes on Russian rear areas in southern Ukraine on June 23. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops launched four Storm Shadow missiles at a Russian concentration area, reportedly a Rosgvardia base, in Henichesk, Kherson Oblast, about 175km southeast of Kherson City. Kherson Oblast occupation head Vladimir Saldo additionally stated on June 23 that the June 22 Ukrainian strike on the Chonhar Bridge (along the E105 highway connecting Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast and Crimea) was much worse than initially reported and that it will take 15 to 20 days for the bridge to reopen for traffic.

More at URL above.

Cheers

Just listening to Putins TV adress on recent events-

He says Prigozhin is a traitor who has betrayed Russia,and he will be dealt with.
He says Rostov on Don is not under Russian control!
Units are being deployed on the way to and inside Moscow to stop the Wagner Horde!

Also,people North of Rostov were reporting that the Wagner convoy is 50KM in length,and some witnessed them get stopped by Russian tanks at a road checkpoint.The Wagners got out of the lead vehicle,had a little chat with the Russian soldiers-who then moved the tanks and allowed them to pass freely!

This is absolute madness.
If ever there was an event which could be taken advantage of by the Ukrainians-THIS IS IT!

a reply to: Silcone Synapse
It's a truly fascinating turn of events. I need to make sure I have plenty of popcorn on hand as I watch these events unfold.

It's not looking good for Putin, which means it's looking good for Ukraine so far:

Putin Admits He’s Facing ‘Armed Mutiny’ as Prigozhin Advances on Moscow

“All those who deliberately set out on the path of betrayal will suffer inevitable punishment,” (Putin) said.

And yet, there was no sign of the Russian military standing up to Wagner in defense of their president.

Where are the protests in Russia?

We’ve seen worse “uprisings” and “peaceful protests” everywhere past years than this lol

What Zelensky’s “counter offensive” I mean crash course doing?

Zelensky needs to go full steam in Bakhmut. Now is the time.

Reports are saying the wagners are in Voronezh province-thats nearly half way to Moscow!

Wagner mercenaries may be able to reach Moscow in a matter of hours, as Vladimir Putin's regime appears to be on the brink of implosion after a seismic turn of events in Russia. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the warlord in command of the Wagner Group, has taken the city of Rostov-on-Don and has passed through Voronezh, which is en route to Moscow. A video obtained by Express.co.uk shows lorries carrying Wagner tanks in the Lipetsk area, which is just north of Voronezh.

www.express.co.uk...

I would bet that many of the Russian soldiers low key support this-as it is them who are being sent to their deaths in Ukraine.
We know their morale is very low-maybe some will join the convoy.
Maybe there will be far more than just the 25000 wagners by the time they reach Moscow.
I am guessing they have quite a bit of support from the general population as well-It doesn't take a genius to see that what Putin is doing in Ukraine is not a good thing for Russia.

Due to how much military resources have been sent into Ukraine-just how well defended are all the Russian military bases on the way to Moscow?
Probably not very well defended at all-most are likley running a skeleton crew but with big amounts of fuel,arms and other supplies all ready to be appropriated by wagner.

I am wondering if Putin has all the nukes locked down tight-if wagner manged to get hold of a nuke or two,imagine the blackmail potential against Moscow!

originally posted by: Silcone Synapse
Reports are saying the wagners are in Voronezh province-thats nearly half way to Moscow!

Wagner mercenaries may be able to reach Moscow in a matter of hours, as Vladimir Putin's regime appears to be on the brink of implosion after a seismic turn of events in Russia. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the warlord in command of the Wagner Group, has taken the city of Rostov-on-Don and has passed through Voronezh, which is en route to Moscow. A video obtained by Express.co.uk shows lorries carrying Wagner tanks in the Lipetsk area, which is just north of Voronezh.

www.express.co.uk...

I would bet that many of the Russian soldiers low key support this-as it is them who are being sent to their deaths in Ukraine.
We know their morale is very low-maybe some will join the convoy.
Maybe there will be far more than just the 25000 wagners by the time they reach Moscow.
I am guessing they have quite a bit of support from the general population as well-It doesn't take a genius to see that what Putin is doing in Ukraine is not a good thing for Russia.

Due to how much military resources have been sent into Ukraine-just how well defended are all the Russian military bases on the way to Moscow?
Probably not very well defended at all-most are likley running a skeleton crew but with big amounts of fuel,arms and other supplies all ready to be appropriated by wagner.

I am wondering if Putin has all the nukes locked down tight-if wagner manged to get hold of a nuke or two,imagine the blackmail potential against Moscow!

Again, the Russian civilians there seem unhindered. Zero rallies or protests going on.

If this was Chicago, Sears tower would be looted by now.

a reply to: Imhere

Where are the protests in Russia?

Why should they protest ?

Ordinary Russians are probably more than happy for Wagner to make it all the way to The Kremlin to oust The Dictator.

They are more than likely cheering them on under their breath.

Prigo must have been stockpiling ammunition for months while he was raging at Shoigu complaining about ammo hunger, lol. And he knows that the troops in Ukraine can't attack him because then the whole eastern front would collapse. Pretty smart.

a reply to: alldaylong

The CIA gave Prigozhin their blessings to pull off a takeover. and then have a American puppet in power... that is nothing for the Russian people to celebrate over.

a reply to: Cutepants

Apparently, the chef has cooked up something for Putin.

Will be interesting to see how the rank and file in the Russian forces react when they have to fight Prigo's mercs.

Oh, I forgot. Putin is a chess player to the nth power. He saw this coming, it is part of his master plan for his "military operation". His role as a secret white hat will now become apparent ...

Cheers

a reply to: MaximusParvus

The CIA gave Prigozhin their blessings to pull off a takeover. and then have a American puppet in power.

The only American " puppet " that comes to mind is Trump. He was Putins play thing.

a reply to: MaximusParvus
Not sure the CIA want Prigozhin to run Russia-he has the view that Putin hasn't been violent enough when it comes to the attempted takeover of Ukraine.
So if he manages a coup,I doubt things will improve in Ukraine-It may actually make things worse if that is possible.

Pretty much all of the potential replacements of Putin fall into that category-plus there is the risk of total collapse of Russia,which would no doubt lead to huge amounts of chaos and heightened risk of nuke proliferation to anyone with enough money-think Iran/Isis/Syria would be queing up to buy.

Wow, what a turn of events. My initial reaction is I hope they make it to Moscow and depose Putin.

That said, the situation is extremely dangerous. Russia is a nuclear power. Who knows if they have the command and control and safety protocols over their nuclear weapons that we have. If Putin's government goes down, what happens to their nukes?

And does Putin use them to defeat Prigozhin when the situation gets desperate? Obviously that would involve killing a great number of Russian civilians.

I'm not saying Putin doesn't need to go. Just pointing out this situation could get extremely ugly.

So I've got a question a lot of people here aren't gonna be happy to see. It appears to be yet another contradiction in the official narrative.

Thursday and Friday a number of videos were posted in this thread about how Ukraine was winning. In one of them, they said the Wagner forces had been decimated by Ukraine and were down to perhaps 5,000 men.

Now all of a sudden they're 25,000 strong and perfectly capable of taking Putin down. I'm sure they're picking up support from the Russian regulars, but that 25,000 number has been reported since this first started yesterday as their base strength, not their numbers after they picked up defectors.

Someone wanna square that for me?

a reply to: face23785

The only answer I would have to that face, and I wasn't the one who either posted or believed those numbers, is that, like most everything else pushed out by Ukraine and the Russia, it was propaganda.

Prigozhin did admit near the end of May that 10's of thousands of his and the Russia forces died in Bakhmut.

I saw a report on Twitter that Putin may have left Moscow for St. Petersburg.

Obviously lots of false reports will be flying around, I am taking everything with a grain of salt. Is that where he would go though? Is it more defensible than Moscow?

Edit: Here's the tweet. It was retweeted by Elon Musk, not that that gives it any more validity.