Corona Virus Updates Part 3

originally posted by: Adphil28
a reply to: Oppenheimer67

could do, dont know, but we can really only wait and see and hope that doesnt happen tbh

I agree.

With regards to the imported cases I agree too. They certainly don't tell us how fast it is spreading right now. Local transmission has only just been detected in the UK and Japan. Only time will tell if that growth will go on to dominate the data. Lets hope not.

with regards to second virus being released as cover-up or something. I see where you're coming from, just trying to make sense of the apparently slow growth, apparently mild infection, and China's response. Personally I think it's a bit of a stretch. Whatever they are reacting to, they did so very hard and fast, but people were already leaving before they'd had time to infect enough people with something else as a cover up. And causing a pandemic with a novel, unpredictable RNA virus, as a cover up... Like I say, bit of a stretch in my opinion. Just my opinion though.

a reply to: Maker22

Still only an image of a manipulated webpage, not a webpage - end of story

Possible outbreak in Esssex coming. Ojne guy has the virus and he attended a meeting with loads of people present.

The officers from Essex County Council were on an information stand at the UK Bus Summit at the QEII Conference Centre in Westminster. Since the event, on February 6, health officials have contacted hundreds of attendees, including the official public transport information team at the council after it emerged someone at the conference was later diagnosed with the virus. It is unclear how many of the team were at the centre or whether they had returned to work at county hall in Chelmsford, where hundreds of people work and come into contact with large numbers of visitors daily. The summit is a major event involving delegates from all over the country discussing national bus policy.

www.ipswichstar.co.uk...

At this point, I have to say I believe there's something truly different about what happened in Wuhan and spread to most of mainland China, than what made it outside.

Im not a medical or biological professional (technology person here), so I'm probably not qualified to say why or how.

But, my speculation would be that what started as a fast spreading and more fatal strain may have mutated / evolved in such a way that it is less likely to cause the death of it's host (i.e. people).

I can not believe at this stage that 10's of thousands, if not 100's of thousands of people outside of China are not already exposed, if this thing has been going on in some way for as long as it is believed to.

Maybe China's inhumane treatment if their own people held back most of the original strain (which may still be circulating there), but the real reason the fatalities further away have been more limited, is not that people have not been exposed, but because it has adapted, and become a different strain.

.

a reply to: Maker22

to put this to bed once and for all!

easy to do and took seconds!
think thats now debunked

a reply to: EnhancedInterrogator

I'd think that hypothesis, could be possible. The Serious and Critical case numbers in Hubei province are still rising pretty quickly. These could possibly be from earlier pre-mutation version, as it seems the illness can drag on for weeks

The difference in spread isn't rocket science. While not accounting for all differences, it was allowed to mingle totally unconstrained for about 2 months as far as we can tell in Hubei. Then they pretty much told everyone in every major city to stay home and extended the holiday. While some did and some didn't, it was significantly reduced from the norm.

There is a massive difference between unconstrained mingling and most people aware and being cautious -- even washing hands more frequently. Countries on the outside were proactive in trying to identify those affected. They were kept or attempted to be kept in quarantine. Again, no unconstrained mingling except those that weren't identified.

The point is, it would take way more time and move way slower in these circumstances. You have to rely on a much slower model where people aren't rubbing elbows naturally and those moving it from country to country are slipping through the cracks (they are, just more slowly).

What we can't do is extrapolate what went on there into week/months progression elsewhere. I would say change days to weeks and weeks to months as a swag attempt.

Exclusive: Wuhan funeral home staffer reveals real death toll of coronavirus | NTD


This video provides a translation of an interview with a worker at one of the crematoriums. Workload has increased 4-5 times usual. There is only one shift per day, staff work around the clock and are exhausted. it use to be one body per pickup. Now 2 bodies per car, 7-8 bodies per van. About 40% pickups are from hospitals, 60% from homes.

In one day this funeral home received 127 bodies and cremated 118. 8 where official cases of CORVID-19, 48 where suspected cases on their death certificates.

originally posted by: Adphil28
a reply to: Power_Semi

Not the same thing as China though is it?
The points being
1) we know about the virus
2) suspected patients are presenting for testing
So the likelyhood of being suddenly swamped in millions of cases is unlikely, as an example of that plan in action the U.K. yesterday ground 8 planes at Heathrow for 1 suspected passenger !
( admittedly that idiot then stated he was going to carry on as normal unless he thought he had symptoms *facepalm* imo phe U.K. should have implemented forced quarantine on him at that point)
But you get the point

It wasn't 8 planes for one passenger from what I read. It was several different incidents one of which included a Malysian family falling ill as well as the plan with the San Fran passenger. Details not released about all passengers. Guess in 3 to 7 days we will have the test results.

It’s not been confirmed how many aircraft may have been affected by the coronavirus scare, however, a passenger on board the flight, Andy West, told the Guardian that the United Airlines pilot said that seven other aircraft at Heathrow had similar concerns.

a reply to: checkmeout

thanks for the update and clarifying ,
i only saw the skynews report of that yesterday i dont think it mentioned anyone else

news.sky.com...

For those catching up, here are some older videos that cover the funeral situation.

Overloaded #crematorium staff explodes and collapses. #Wuhan #coronavirus

#ChenQiuShi exposes crematorium count, helps other journalist out of jail #QiuShi

Intensive funeral work in China #wuhanvirus #coronavirus #china

#Wuhan doctor: bodies decay in emergency room. Do not believe the official numbers #coronavirus

funerals Gather in China #wuhanvirus #coronavirus #china #coronovirus

Who Lost Their Lives Due To coronavirus #wuhanvirus #coronavirus #china

#ChenQiuShi exposes crematorium count, helps other journalist out of jail #QiuShi

Proof China is lying about Coronavirus. Multiple sources.

China disinfects BANK NOTES and quarantines them for 14 days as Beijing announces 143 new coronavirus deaths and 2,641 additional cases while death toll hits 1,527

www.dailymail.co.uk...

has today started disinfecting and isolating used banknotes in an effort to stop the spread of the coronavirus (Covid-19) that has killed 1,527 people. Banks use ultraviolet light or high temperatures to disinfect yuan bills, then they seal and store the cash for seven to 14 days - depending on the severity of the outbreak in a particular region - before recirculating them. The virus, which has infected 66,492 people in China and spread to more than two dozen other countries, has sparked a rush to disinfect public places and minimise contact between people.

I would say just use what we currently know about the virus.

For every one infection 3 more are also infected. (Correct me if this has changed.)

68,000 (rounded up) x 3 = at LEAST 204,000.

I would also go as far as to say that new number is totally wrong seeing as though the hospitals are full, people are dying in their homes and now they are not allowed to leave.

Triple again. 600,000.

I'd also go as far as to say anyone who dies outside of a hospital is not taken to a morgue for autopsy. I don't know what kind of assumptive math I'd use for that. It'd say at least over 10,000. Someone posted Chinas daily death rate a couple pages back. Hard to imagine that the crematoriums would be maxxed out for 1,500. Add another zero or 2.

Actually isn't the current death rate 2%

2% of 600,000 is 12,000.

FOR THOSE THAT WANT TO KNOW WHAT IS HAPPENING, WELL, HERE IT IS .

The Japanese govt. said this, and please play to attention to this and start thinking about your safety, but first this. On tonight's tube, office meeting at some companies are requiring a check in point for the employees medical condition. Yep! It coming your way. People on this forum who have the experience and know how about virus's would all agree now with what was said:

ANY TIME AND ANY WHERE


Do you all understand that. This is like ww3 we are entering. Well, at least the Ministry of Health gave it to the citizens as it really is.

The man that met a Chinese road the shinkansen. He is one of the 7 boat passengers of the party of 100 I think, maybe more, was a big boat. If you never seen one, its the one where a long table maybe 50 people on each side eat meals, some times the meals are cooked on the boat. But now that man is in serious condition. I guess it is truly time to wake up now and forget about China, lets worry about our own back yard.

I'm only posting this because I really feel the truth has been spoken, not like it will go away in 3 months.
ANY TIME and ANY PLACE

personally, the economy may stagnate , how severe , well, just ask anyone in the tourist business now in Japan and try being a car salesperson now...yikes

originally posted by: CrazeeWorld777

China disinfects BANK NOTES and quarantines them for 14 days as Beijing announces 143 new coronavirus deaths and 2,641 additional cases while death toll hits 1,527

www.dailymail.co.uk...

has today started disinfecting and isolating used banknotes in an effort to stop the spread of the coronavirus (Covid-19) that has killed 1,527 people. Banks use ultraviolet light or high temperatures to disinfect yuan bills, then they seal and store the cash for seven to 14 days - depending on the severity of the outbreak in a particular region - before recirculating them. The virus, which has infected 66,492 people in China and spread to more than two dozen other countries, has sparked a rush to disinfect public places and minimise contact between people.

Yep! Now we have taxi drivers afraid to take Chinese passengers and or their money. Getting tough folks now.

a reply to: Mateo96

Just like a lot of things about this virus you guys are debating something that can’t be proven either way.

It could have been a legit photo of legit numbers accidentally posted.

Or it could have had its HTML altered and then photographed.

Do you happen to know what % of Chinese people have HTML editing skills?

What % of Chinese people know how to edit WeChat’s HTML or do that on a mobile phone?

What % of Chinese people have a PC for that matter?

Quick calculation of minimum dead in Wuhan and estimating minimum CFR.

Crematoriums working 4-5 times as hard.

Using lasts year's number of dead in China, assuming 9 million population in Wuhan, you'd expect ~180 deaths a day in Wuhan to be considered average/normal. Lets say 80% would be cremated since this is favoured in cities there.

So normally crematories (crematoria?) would burn 144 bodies a day in Wuhan between them. 4 times this is 576, or put another way, 432 extra corpses per day, over the norm. i.e. 432 extra deaths daily, caused by the epidemic or consequences of it, in Wuhan alone.

The workload grew to this extent on 23rd Jan, i.e. 23 days ago. So even if the rate of deaths didn't increase (unlikely), and ignoring deaths up to then, there are at least 9.7k dead in Wuhan.

Don't know how many infected in Wuhan, but even using 54k in whole of Hubei puts minimum case fatality rate (CFR) at 18%. It may be that there are 5 times this amount of infected due to those at home, undiagnosed or mild. Lets hope so, because this would give minimum CFR of 3.5%

a reply to: EnhancedInterrogator

I’m starting to lean that way as well.

Remember in thread #1 that China wanted to repatriate all the people from Wuhan via airplane. I still find that highly suspicious and I’ve not found a follow up on that.

Almost like they don’t want them examined by others.

Similar to them not wanting American CDC doctor’s to assist on the ground in China.

Fiat Chrysler Plans to Halt Its Serbia Plant on Coronavirus

Bloomberg

Coronavirus leaves Japan and South Korea short of Chinese workers

asia.nikkei.com...

More economic impact. That’s 3 car factories shutdown due to supply chain issues from China. And now impacts in other areas.

Big business does not like supply chain disruption, after this is over I think we’ll see many companies move supply chain links to other countries.

China at "most crucial stage" of novel coronavirus prevention, control: official


217 Medical teams with 25 633 staff have been sent to Hubie. An unknown amount of military military staff have joined them. Three mobile P3 labs have been dispatched.

181 medical teams with 20 374 staff are now working in Wuhan.

36 medical teams with 5 259 staff are working in other cities.

Antiviral treatment, ventilators and treatments combining western and traditional Chinese methods are being used. Blood plasma from recovered patients is supporting treatments. Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is being promoted in the early stages to help recovery, blood oxygen saturation and reduce fatalities.