Breaking: Republican Debbie Lesko wins special general election to replace Franks

a reply to: Xcathdra

Red Tide instead of blue wave.

originally posted by: DBCowboy

originally posted by: Irishhaf
So is this a referendum on the blue wave, I mean when a democrat leaning district went democrat it was trumpeted as a referendum on Trump?

Or is this another subject only allowed to flow in one direction..

A Red Tide?

OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

originally posted by: Grambler
Now lets be fair, this is one election and wouldnt conclsuively prove anything about the midterms either way.

If the dmeocrats had won here, I would have told those saying this proved a blue wave was coming that they were wrong.

So I feel i must also say I dont think this proves there isnt a blue wave coming.

OK, lets be fair here.

Trent Franks won EVERY election in that district by more than 30%. He has usually run unopposed because it just wasn't worth it to spend money on. It WAS one of the safest seats in the country; not just Arizona. In 2016 Franks won by 37.2% while Trump won in that district by 21% and the state by less than 5%.

The Democrats brought that result down to just over 5%, a swing of over 25%. That constitutes a huge punch in the face for the Republicans and a 25% swing in the midterms will mean that Arizona will go solid blue.

The Democrats were hoping for a win, sure, but knew that it was a very long row to hoe. The Republicans spent four times on the campaign than the Democrats. The Democrat National committee didn't get involved with much money, while the Republicans were so afraid it made the race one of the most expensive in history.

Whether they get hit by a 'Blue Wave' or by a 'Rising Tide' makes no difference; Republicans are going to take a bath in the midterms.

originally posted by: crtrvt
Only the most delusional of repubs could be gloating about this win tonight...
Maricopia County is about as Republican as you can get. It's the home of Sheriff Joe Arpaio, average voting age is 66, Trump won the district +20 in 2016.
GOP spent a million $$ vs. a quarter of that for the dems and only won by a +5 margin last night, a +15 point swing to the Democrats.
I know you guys need to grab those good feels wherever you can these days so carry on LMAO!

Can you provide a source for any of your statistics? My source says that Trump only won in Maricopa County by 3.5% not the 20% that you state.

Source

a reply to: Reverbs

I take no special joy in having a republican win other than the fact that they beat a democrat.


There is a very valid reason why congress approval numbers are in the single digits.


They all suck. Some just suck a little less than others. It depends on the day who sucks a little less.

originally posted by: 0311Warrior
a reply to: DBCowboy

The Blue Wave is all of us former Democrats voting for Republicans this midterm hahaha Dems are so done. I’ve never seen so much anger towards them ever. My Spybook is filled with Democrat friends and family who are openly stating they will vote for MAGA candidates. It’s surreal. They were almost all pro HRC or Sanders (like I was until I found out about the superdelegates = no chance = real collusion/rigging)

The sad part is that in really is just one political party with two sides.

And neither "side" is on our side.

But the Republican lead in that solid red district was badly eroded from a twenty one percent lead to five.
That's an indicator of the trump effect once again.

a reply to: Xcathdra

Actually the democrats didn't expect a win. They used this election to gage the mood.
I'm sure the candidate wanted to win but it was unrealistic. Some years that district didn't even have a Democrat candidate.

a reply to: DBCowboy

Not wise to ignore tsunami warnings.
The Big Blue Wave🌊

a reply to: neo96

In an over fifty five mostly retired republicans district having almost half your people vote for your opponent isn't exactly what GOP leaders are celebrating. Nor should they be.
Trump won that district with a twenty one percent lead less than two years ago. This person squeaked by with five percent.
That's an indicator . I'm sorry you guys don't see that but it is. Dems are still celebrating and they have momentum and drive while republicans are...retiring...

originally posted by: Sillyolme
a reply to: DBCowboy

Not wise to ignore tsunami warnings.
The Big Blue Wave🌊

a reply to: DBCowboy

That's trumps presidency right there.
Perfect illustration. Thanks.

a reply to: burgerbuddy

Red tide is usually considered a menace. At least to coastal people. Not a good metaphor really.

Anyone that considers this as a good sign for the Republicans come November must have continued their 4/20 celebrations in to this week because they are high as hell.

This is a staunchly Republican district where the Red candidate generally wins by 20 points or more. And while the Dem in this race lost by 5 points they still overperformed by 20 points. If a hardline Republican district is swinging the Dems way by 20 more points than expected, what does that say for all the districts that are more moderate come November?

The other important thing worth noting about this election is that there really isn't any kind of excuse the Republicans can come up with for their drastic underperformance other than a surge in Democrat voters. Lesko didn't have the baggage of a Roy Moore. Tipirneni wasn't some hot-shot maverick. The demographics of District 8 haven't been changing a substantial amount. The Dems didn't outspend the Republicans. This was a generic Republican running against a generic Democrat in a district that heavily favors Republicans and the Democrat came within five points of winning.

That is a very bad sign for the Republicans.

It also isn't the first bad sign but the continuation of a trend. Since Trump has been elected, the Democrats have been overperforming in these special elections by an average of 17 points. If that trend holds in to the midterm the Democrats will have a wave on par to what the Republicans did in 1994 and 2010. At this point even the generic Congressional ballot is showing, albeit a more modest, swing towards the Democrats. That has the Dems ahead by 7 points, which still puts them in contention of taking the House.

Obviously we haven't really entered in to election season yet and there are many things that can change between now and November. But based off of what we've seen over the past year or so the Republicans are going to be fighting an uphill battle and results of this special election have done nothing to change that fact. If anything it shows that the Republicans are going to have a much tougher time of it than originally expected.

a reply to: diggindirt

No they're not chanting couplets to bring about change. The country is speaking loud and clear.
The fact is that special elections don't usually garner a lot of attention or unfortunately a lot of voters. But this year they have. And in New Jersey and Pennsylvania and Virginia and Alabama the people have spoken. And here they have closed an unimaginable gap. These are indicators. You should listen to what your reps are saying.
They are saying I'm outta here. This is a losing proposition.

a reply to: Annee

Land of the gun owner and Sheriff Arpaio.

a reply to: Annee

That too. The dems would have needed about seventy percent of the independent vote to win this. Looks like the captured a good chunk.

a reply to: Irishhaf

But when a solid red one did it was even more significant.

a reply to: Xcathdra

We didn't know the extent he went to to cheat his way in that night. We've learned a lot since then.

a reply to: Xcalibur254

While this may not be the big indicator some are hoping for, it was a win for the right, and a loss for the left.
Facts are something you don't get to discount. Have a super day.