Breaking: Republican Debbie Lesko wins special general election to replace Franks

a reply to: PsychoEmperor

I would be careful trying to compare midterm election and special election turnout to 2016. Elections during Presidential elections always gain more of a turnout than on the off years.

Almost everyone I talk to is sick and tired of this SJW BS and the liberal narratives veing forced down our throst via the tech industry

YouTube's new policy of only querying mainstream news media sources for anything related to news topics is going to become another point of contention for the millions of people cutting the cord to avoid the TRASH coming from the MSM

Currently listen to Dan Bongino great show today

a reply to: Xcalibur254

Or...just maybe we are all being fed a crock of BS. Hastily gathered candidates that don't inspire the base losing to candidates that have extraordinary support. Use this analogy...team A averages 7 runs a game and hits.350 against B during the regular season. What the stats don't tell you is that team A put those numbers up against the 4 and 5 starters and a fill in spot starter. In the post season they will face much tougher pitching. Same with this... The Dems will have to beat incumbents, many of them solidly entrenched, to take both houses. If they don't then this 2 year push is a failure.

a reply to: Xcathdra

In this case it actually is important to look at. While it's true that midterms have a smaller turnout than Presidential elections, special elections generally have smaller turnouts than midterms. And yet the Dems are showing an 80% retention rate in these special elections compared to 2016.

If we compare the retention rates the Republicans had for this district in 2014 to 2012 it was about 75%. So the Dems already have that beat. While those numbers might not be enough to beat the Republicans in districts that are staunchly Red, it's going to be enough to swing districts that sit closer to the middle of the spectrum.

That's what Republicans need to be worried about.

originally posted by: toysforadults
Almost everyone I talk to is sick and tired of this SJW BS and the liberal narratives veing forced down our throst via the tech industry

YouTube's new policy of only querying mainstream news media sources for anything related to news topics is going to become another point of contention for the millions of people cutting the cord to avoid the TRASH coming from the MSM

Currently listen to Dan Bongino great show today

Dan has some great perspectives and recently started checking more of his material out. Followed him on Twitter as well.

I too agree and from a wide variety of people I come across daily during the business commute, most are tired of the PC BS and constant negative coverage of the news. Infact, most have actually turned off the flatpanel, TVs all together and simply found relevant and useful things to do, commenting on how "plugged" in they were. Interesting convos they are.

As for YT, thats a real world changing situation there, people have been living off YT by pushing out content, but YTs restrictions and other guidelines are killing off the bread and butter of some families. Had they been more open and made timely announcements to impending changes, they may have had a smoother ride. Flat out changing their frameworks and disrupting entire revenue streams is gonna unhinge some folks.

a reply to: Arizonaguy

By all accounts Tipirneni wasn't exactly an inspiring candidate either. On top of that he didn't outspend Lesko. So how do you explain the "extraordinary support" he got? If the Dems are this motivated to get out and vote in special elections doesn't it stand to reason they'll put up better numbers in the actual midterms?

And it's not just special elections where we're seeing these trends. Look at Virginia's state elections last year. The Dems made historic gains. Among those being the election of the first openly transgender representative in history; who did not only beat the incumbent, but whipped his ass.

You can try to sugar coat it all you want but it doesn't change the facts. In pretty much every election since Trump has been elected the Dems have overperformed to a phenomenal degree. And there's no real indication that November will be any different. Sure they may not get the 17 point swing we've been seeing in these elections but even a 10 point swing is enough to easily give them the House.

This thread seems to have a lot of fortune telling and wishful thinking in it. The cheerleading and attempts to make something out of an anomalous election that will be a do-over in the fall sound like whistling past the graveyard. Those who are trying to convince themselves of the blue wave will have to wait and see if it is a wave or a ripple.
The timing of the indictments and trials for the Federal miscreants will be dragged out through the midterms and beyond. Sessions works carefully and will bring this to fruition in his own good time. By then, Mueller should be done fishing and will only catch a few minnows, if anything.
People are tired of identity politics and Dems pandering to whining minorities. Provide good candidates and honest platforms [Dems take note]. Do not try to buy votes with promises of free stuff, jobs for all, reparations, or anything else that will be on the backs of productive citizens. Start paying attention to the working class, the traditional Dems, and ignore fringe groups and illegals.
Call for a valid ID to vote -- valid ID is needed for everything else --and eliminate the uncertainty and accusations. Find a Presidential candidate who is capable of negotiating with Congress and will not hide in the Oval Office ruling by Executive Order while polishing an undeserved Nobel prize. Enforce existing laws. Deport illegals starting with criminals. Eliminate foreign baby tourists claiming US citizenship for planned tourism births. Make English the official language. It is difficult to be a melting pot when some are isolated by language.

a reply to: Grambler

The only time we're going to know a "blue wave" is coming is when/if it arrives in November. Not before.

Time and time again it's shown that polls and prognosticators are, at best, unreliable...yet, people insist on trumpeting, the pun was just sitting there begging to be used, them as some form of infallible indicator.

We will see what we see, when Election day arrives...assuming, of course, Americans can be bothered to show up at the polls, or mail 'em in.

a reply to: Xcalibur254

By all accounts Tipirneni wasn't exactly an inspiring candidate either. On top of that he didn't outspend Lesko. So how do you explain the "extraordinary support" he got?

The fact you've repeatedly called Hiral "he" really colours my perception of the depth of your "analysis".

a reply to: RadioRobert

Just because I don't know the gender of the candidates does not change the numbers in this election or any of the other elections that have occurred since 2016.

Right now it looks like the Democrats are sitting in the position the Republicans were in 2010.

a reply to: Xcalibur254

So you're measuring the charisma of candidates you know absolutely zero about? It sounds like you're regurgitating, not opining.

a reply to: RadioRobert

I'm simply saying what I've seen other analysts say. Would you argue that Tipirneni is actually a rockstar candidate that galvanized the Democrat base in District 8?

Would you say that the Democrats are also fielding similar rockstar candidates in all these other special elections where they're averaging an overperformance of 17 points?

Are the Republicans just fielding trash candidates in these special elections as well?

If that's the case then why do you expect the Republicans to field anything but trash candidates in November and the Democrats to field anything other than great candidates?

originally posted by: Xcalibur254
a reply to: RadioRobert

Just because I don't know the gender of the candidates does not change the numbers in this election or any of the other elections that have occurred since 2016.

Right now it looks like the Democrats are sitting in the position the Republicans were in 2010.

so it's too soon to tell that this is good for the right, but somehow, this is showing you that the left is right on target? that's a bit odd.

a reply to: network dude

Where did I say that? I did say that a lot of things can change between now and November, but based on every election since 2016 the Dems have been drastically overperforming. So based on the available the data the Dems are looking at a very strong showing in November.

I'd say she was a very likeable and relatable moderate candidate who had a lot more charisma than Lesko who had all the appeal of a bucket of warm spit and was subjected to ongoing allegations of FEC election funding violations nonstop in the news and attack ads.

I say that as a registered voter in that county (but not district) who leans right who not only saw all the ads and coverage, but even knows the gender of the candidates. So when people start talking authoritatively about the relative charisma of the two candidates that is a world apart from my first-hand perception, but also don't know the candidates' genders, I start wondering what his angle is.

It's absolutely good for the Dems that they have maintained engagement and have a better ground game than the Reps. They are overperforming. That will absolutely help them if they continue to run moderate candidates. I already warned about Republicans feeling smug on page one of the thread. I already said the rest in the thread. I just wouldn't read too much into special election results and try to extrapolate them across the board in a general election.

a reply to: whywhynot

The 21% stat refers to Congressional district number 8, which is only a small part of Maricopa County.

District 8 is demographic is dominated by the huge number of retirement centers.

originally posted by: rnaa
District 8 is demographic is dominated by the huge number of retirement centers.

Also known as God's waiting room.

I am curious though how many of those people are snowbird equivalents.

a reply to: RadioRobert

Historically, special elections have been a good predictor for how trends are moving.

originally posted by: Xcalibur254
a reply to: network dude

Where did I say that? I did say that a lot of things can change between now and November, but based on every election since 2016 the Dems have been drastically overperforming. So based on the available the data the Dems are looking at a very strong showing in November.

As long as the remainder of the IG report and the findings of the ongoing investigations hold off until after election, you may well be right. But if not, I see some things differently in my crystal ball.

Trump won this same area by 19 points I believe - so I don't think this reverses momentum.
It's with the Dems I think - purely because of the hive mind mentality of the left....they are more motivated to get out and vote.