The Great game Turkey, Russia and NATO

As everyone is well aware since the coup attempt Erdogan has used it to purge anybody who he deems an enemy. The scale is massive. The Scale of Turkey’s Purge
Is Nearly Unprecedented This is of course a huge concern to NATO who can see Turkey no longer remaining a Democracy and becoming a cross between the old Empire and a Caliphate.

NATO membership is essential to Turkey and gives it an advantage over all other powers in the region. Erdorgan knows this and NATO knows this. Leaving NATO with cards to play. At least until Turkey pulled its ace. Turkey's Erdogan, Russia's Putin reset relationship after jet shootdown.

Now suddenly their is talk of a non NATO Turkey Russian alliance. Is that likely? So why are they talking? What is going on?

Russia of coursed jumped at this chance. For Russia, Turkey would be a powerful ally and a much needed friend when it has few. It also would love to see NATO lose a key member. And Putin does not care what type of Government you have. Russia also needs those economic ties.

Turkey on the other hand does not get much from an alliance with Russia. What is does get from restoring ties with Russia and playing footsie with Russia is card to play against NATO trying to tell it what to do. Threaten Turkey with losing NATO membership and we will ally with Russia is the message. It is not what Turkey wants to do, it befits far more from NATO than it ever would from Russia but, it can play that card.

And that card worked for Turkey NATO says Turkey remains a ‘valued ally’ after Erdogan visits Putin in Moscow.

So in the great game it is Turkey playing Russia and NATO against each other to its own advantage. Turkey will lead Russia on to get what it wants from the West. How long will that last? Who knows. At what point will NATO walk away giving up key ally in a strategic area? At what point will Russia get tired of being lead on? And what happen if NATO and Russia settle their issues making Turkey far less valuable to both sides. It will interesting to see how this goes.

Nato might want to have new iff frequencies,skip codes and comm signal ranges at the ready I wouldn't trust this nutcase with all of NATO's sigint etc.

a reply to: MrSpad

I think it would be more accuarate to look into the Gulen Movement and its connection with NATO and a little known gem called Operation Gladio B.

Going to be interesting to see what comes of these coming wikileaks exposures linking the Clinton/USA to Gulen.

To me it appears that NATO used Erdogans country as a staging point for their proxy army Daesh and when they felt the time was right it was time to throw him under the bus.

Yet something seemed to cause a rush on the western intelligence coup and now we see Turkey uniting with Russia and Iran... interesting times.

a reply to: MrSpad

I have been seeing this too. Iraq signed a big arms deal with Russia some years back, around the time I think Saudi Arabia was announcing a triple walled/fenced northern and southern border. Russia has been wrestling away arms contracts incrementally in the region. What deals do we have with Turkey, and are they planning on offsetting some of that with Russian Imports???

I kind of suspected this a couple of months back when several NATO states were reassessing their embargoes and sanctions with Russia. i still betting my money on Erdogan getting his, and Turkey getting some domestic civil unrest action on top of whats going on now. What he has done is not going to go unchallenged from within.

a reply to: MrSpad

People are not paying enough attention to the situation in Turkey. Thank you for the much needed thread.

If my past assumptions are even remotely correct, then things are going to get very bizarre in about 34 days. At the very least, that is when the EU will be holding the debate on whether or not Turkey will enter the union.

I'll drop a hint: Gog of Magog. Check my threads for more Easter eggs if you're interested.

a reply to: MrSpad

Russia is just sitting back and laughing right now. They have Turkey in such a situational clusterfudge that Turkey has no clue what is going on.

I guarantee both the US and Russia had foreknowledge of this coup attempt, and that begs the question, why didn't they tell Erdogan?

a reply to: MrSpad

I think it will come down to whether or not Russia can provide the money that Turkey get's from the US, because when we leave so do our billions of dollars.

Russia really has no money to give unless they do it with gas...but would it be enough to counter the loss is the big question?

Turkey is playing a game, but it may be harmful tto them if they play the wrong cards in their hand.

a reply to: Vector99

Heres how I see it going down, at least it would go well in a Call of Duty spin off.

cia guys and fsb are negotiating who gets to launch the missile, and whose missile it will be. Meanwhile the whole time the Erdogan is thinking he is pulling off a strategic hedge between the two.

If he can still be voted out, it will probably happen at the appropriate time. Otherwise, its two guys at a table discussing who gets to shoot, and who's shot it will be.

Turks and Russians need to get sorted the thorn of Ukraine. That is a divider. If the Turks are going to want a long term relationship with Russia then they are going to have to stop supporting the western/EU installed puppet government in Kiev. If the two powers can decide on what happens to Ukraine then what's stopping them forming an excellent relationship. Turkey by going down the Russian route will find it has more independence and less chance of a western coup taking their country.Russia wants a secular Syria, if Turkey stops the western sent mercenaries from pouring over its borders to murder Syrians then maybe they can get Putin on side and they will have energy unlimited from the worlds biggest country with all its resources.

There is a fourth element in the equation, isn't there?
Not so long ago, there was talk of Russia giving financial help to Greece.
Being friendly with both countries at the same time is tricky. Would Russia find it easier than NATO? For historical and cultural reasons, I think friendship between Russia and Greece would have firmer foundations.

Turkey benefits massively economically being an ally of Russia.

Not everything is about guns.

a reply to: Nexttimemaybe

Yeah I read somewhere that Russians are the number one tourists to Turkey. Lots of money coming in along with the gas

originally posted by: Vector99
I guarantee both the US and Russia had foreknowledge of this coup attempt, and that begs the question, why didn't they tell Erdogan?

Another thread on this board claims that Russia DID tell him.
Erdogan warned

a reply to: DISRAELI

You just get the feeling looking at past events that the USA and UK will be involved in some way with that coup. Russia would have wanted to keep the status quo rather than looking the other way while a western puppet was installed.

a reply to: ufoorbhunter
One wonders if all this is the consequence of Russia's alleged ability to read certain American e-mails.

a reply to: MrSpad

The big question in my mind is, will we see another coup attempt, this time CIA-backed, a'la the Arab Springs? I still wonder if the failed coup attempt was such, just foiled by Russian Intelligence.

The US has not exactly made a habit of walking away from strategic advantages in the Middle East.

TheRedneck

a reply to: MrSpad
Iran and Turkey pledge greater cooperation on Syria

Despite their differences, the foreign ministers of Turkey and Iran are pledging greater cooperation on trying to resolve the Syrian crisis – after meeting in Ankara.



Tehran backs the government of President Bashar al-Assad, while Ankara advocates his departure.



“We have some subjects which we agreed on, especially on Syria’s territorial integrity and borders. We had disagreements over some issues,” Mevlut Cavusoglu, Turkey’s foreign minister, told reporters.



“We have to fight together against these terrorist organisations. For permanent peace and a solution in Syria, we’ll strengthen our cooperation.”

newsletter.thaivisa.com...

originally posted by: DISRAELI
a reply to: ufoorbhunter
One wonders if all this is the consequence of Russia's alleged ability to read certain American e-mails.

Yeah the Russians knew what was going down here before it happened. They are using their excellent intelligence service to gain friendships in regions that were once dominated by the English speaking world. You take Turkey out of the English speaking worlds grasp and the Middle East is suddenly looking like a Russian domain. It always was before the English speaking toppled Gaddafi, Saddam, Assad (almost). US and Brits just jump on the band wagon it's like Iran and Iraq in the past, seesawing between backing the two with also backing Kurdish freedom fighters too it's all totally insane.

Israel are the ones to watch here. What are they up to here? As long as all the surrounding states are engulfed in wars, Springs, civil strife then Israel sits very pretty. Wonder what the Israelis make of a Turkish Russian alliance? Surely Israel would have been happy for a secular leaning coup to succeed thus enabling it to remake the ties with the Turkish military like before Mavi Mara. Now Putin allied with Turk while giving Assad the go ahead through closing off the borders to Western mercenaries the chance to establish peace, what is in it for Israel? Israel won't sit by and get surrounded by this alliance and wait to be worn down through attrition, they will have to do something........................

a reply to: TheRedneck

originally posted by: TheRedneck
I still wonder if the failed coup attempt was such, just foiled by Russian Intelligence.

You might not be wrong about that, given that the coup was executed prematurely because the turkish MİT got word of it hours beforehand.
There is also reasons to believe the KRZ here in Germany knew (at least) hours beforehand that the coup-attempt was destined to fail.

a reply to: MrSpad

So in the great game it is Turkey playing Russia and NATO against each other to its own advantage.

Erdogan turned to Russia because the US tried to 'Regime Change' him. There would have been no 'new talks', otherwise.

Turkey will lead Russia on to get what it wants from the West.

Russia seizes the opportunity to strengthen relations, benefiting Russia's strategic position overall and weakening NATO's influence in the region in the process.

How long will that last? Who knows. At what point will NATO walk away giving up key ally in a strategic area?

NATO isn't going to give up its air base at Incirlik, guards it with nuclear 'Detente'.

From the horses mouth...