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Mathematicians say it is likely alien probes have reached earth.

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posted on Jul, 28 2014 @ 06:10 PM
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www.theepochtimes.com...

Slingshot Dynamics for Self Replicating Probes and the Effect on Exploration Timescales
arxiv.org...

Full PDF file:
arxiv.org...


A pair of mathematicians have calculated how long it would take for an advanced species to send probes to every star in the galaxy, assuming some pretty conservative parameters. For the purpose of their calculations, they assumed the ability to create self replicating space probes capable of traveling at an average speed of 10% of the speed of light. If such probes made a few copies of themselves upon reaching a new star system and sent that probe off to the next system as it turned it's attention towards study of it's target system, probes could investigate every star system in 10 Million years.

Given the likely prevalence of intelligent life in our galaxy and the likelihood that a fair portion of those civilizations have hundreds of millions or billions of years on us, the probability is that our solar system has been probed by multitudes of alien civilizations throughout the history of our system.

This work reminds me of the Fermi Paradox, where probability dictates a high number of intelligent species and likelihood that they should be here by now, while science has failed to identify their presence or prove their existence. Of course, some of us know, believe or suspect they have been visiting us for quite some time, and the real paradox is "why do so many scientists insist alien contact is the least probable explanation for UFO related phenomena, when probability dictates that there should be many galactic species here already on our doorstep".

The biggest leap of faith imaginable is that intelligent life capable of space travel is so unique that no one would have had time or inclination to visit earth. (For me, this has always raised another paradox. Skeptics want us to believe that we are so rare that we have no peers capable of visiting us, while in the next breath raising the question of why anyone would want to bother visiting us).

The Abstract:


Interstellar probes can carry out slingshot manoeuvres around the stars they visit, gaining a boost in velocity by extracting energy from the star's motion around the Galactic Centre. These maneouvres carry little to no extra energy cost, and in previous work it has been shown that a single Voyager-like probe exploring the galaxy does so 100 times faster when carrying out these slingshots than when navigating purely by powered flight (Forgan et al. 2012). We expand on these results by repeating the experiment with self-replicating probes. The probes explore a box of stars representative of the local Solar neighbourhood, to investigate how self-replication affects exploration timescales when compared with a single non-replicating probe. We explore three different scenarios of probe behaviour: i) standard powered flight to the nearest unvisited star (no slingshot techniques used), ii) flight to the nearest unvisited star using slingshot techniques, and iii) flight to the next unvisited star that will give the maximum velocity boost under a slingshot trajectory.

In all three scenarios we find that as expected, using self-replicating probes greatly reduces the exploration time, by up to three orders of magnitude for scenario i) and iii) and two orders of magnitude for ii). The second case (i.e. nearest-star slingshots) remains the most time effective way to explore a population of stars. As the decision-making algorithms for the fleet are simple, unanticipated "race conditions" amongst probes are set up, causing the exploration time of the final stars to become much longer than necessary. From the scaling of the probes' performance with star number, we conclude that a fleet of self-replicating probes can indeed explore the Galaxy in a sufficiently short time to warrant the existence of the Fermi Paradox.

 


MOD NOTE:

Mod Note: Posting work written by others.– Please Review This Link.
edit on 7/28/2014 by Blaine91555 because: to edit in external source tags as per the terms and conditions of use




posted on Jul, 28 2014 @ 06:27 PM
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The issue I take with this, is that it makes huge assumptions about when life may have evolved on other planets, and that they did not become extinct before reaching a technological level of sophistication capable of sending out such probes. All probability scenarios on this that I've seen, not only make the mistake of speculation and assumption, but fail to differentiate between life & advanced life....and assume that advanced life is the norm.

EDIT: It is still probable that WE are the only civilization that has advanced technologically. Sad...but probable & quite mathematically possible.
edit on 28-7-2014 by LogicalRazor because: (no reason given)



posted on Jul, 28 2014 @ 06:31 PM
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...a fair portion of those civilizations have hundreds of millions or billions of years on us...


The one thought I keep returning to with regard to the possibility of advanced life forms elsewhere in the universe, that is to say, advanced in terms of history and technology, is that such intelligences would have eventually shed the organic body, having first grown to adulthood, they would then move into mechanical bodies where their memories can be downloaded into an artificial brain.

Yet, after further advancement, they would move away from mechanical bodies also, and eventually live within a layering of body shells that resemble or pertain to that which we currently think of as spirit. Indeed, we may actually be living on an incubating planet, and that when we die, our real essence then trans-relocates into one of these 'spirit' bodies? In this manner, intelligence can colonise space and the universe, seeking out other planets suitable for organic life which can be steered toward intelligence incubation. Death is left behind with the organic body.



posted on Jul, 28 2014 @ 06:32 PM
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Intelligent life may not be prevalent. There is only one species on Earth capable of doing anything like this. There are millions of species on Earth that aren't and have no desire to do this. We're unique on this planet. Who's to say we're not unique among others?



posted on Jul, 28 2014 @ 06:39 PM
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originally posted by: LogicalRazor

It is still probable that WE are the only civilization that has advanced technologically.


Why?
Being as WE know practically nothing about whats out there I find that hard to believe.

I think one day soon we are going to realise that its teeming with very advanced life out there, and that WE are only just getting out of the trees in comparison.



posted on Jul, 28 2014 @ 06:39 PM
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Thank you for the post, right up my alley as they say. S&F. On a side note, the Greg Bear novel "The Forge of God" Is the best book, fictionwise, dealing with this subject that I have ever read. The Fermi paradox is dealt with in the book rather well I feel. If you haven't read it let me recommend it highly to you. Not to associate this with fiction of course, just thought it would be of interest.



posted on Jul, 28 2014 @ 06:45 PM
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originally posted by: smithjustinb
Intelligent life may not be prevalent. There is only one species on Earth capable of doing anything like this. There are millions of species on Earth that aren't and have no desire to do this. We're unique on this planet. Who's to say we're not unique among others?


Monkeys have recently been found to be using tools, some have been found making things such as umbrellas, how long before they're talking?
We're discovering whales and dolphins are highly intelligent, maybe in a few thousand years they too will be talking.
We are not unique on this earth, we just have a little head start.



posted on Jul, 28 2014 @ 06:46 PM
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everyone basicly excepts life exists elsewhere now but people are questioning if they could be here? if and i say if they are even just advanced by a few thousand years then you never know.

mean what they,ve saw on enceladus and other space bodys anythings possible,only 10-20 years ago what we know now was impossible to most scientists.



posted on Jul, 28 2014 @ 06:54 PM
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Oh, and just a thought, the whole idea of von Neumann like probes surely indicates the interest of an alien species to at least discover, and maybe conquer, other worlds. I'm not sure that all possible alien civilisations may have these goals as their primary objectives. So, perhaps be careful with those we may encounter...as their motives seem to be clearer
edit on 28-7-2014 by Jonjonj because: (no reason given)



posted on Jul, 28 2014 @ 06:59 PM
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a reply to: LogicalRazor


EDIT: It is still probable that WE are the only civilization that has advanced technologically. Sad...but probable & quite mathematically possible.

Probable? As a species, we are still sucklings. We've barely scratched the surface of possibilities. Let alone probabilities. I don't think our sciences are qualified at this point to make a judgement of probabilities on whether or not we are, or are not, the only advanced civilization. Mathematically or otherwise.
When it comes to this topic. All bets are off. The possibilities are astronomical(pun intended).

Our limited thinking and understanding of the universe at this point, is roughly equal to a cat working a Rubik's cube...

We have a long ways to go before we are qualified to make that statement. imho.
edit on 7/28/2014 by Klassified because: (no reason given)



posted on Jul, 28 2014 @ 07:05 PM
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Well... this makes me think about the Tower of Babel or the Prime Directive concept. Perhaps any time a advanced civilization gets close to doing this, it is halted ?

I dunno ?

Very interesting topic.

leolady



posted on Jul, 28 2014 @ 07:20 PM
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a reply to: Totemic

Very interesting article.

When it comes to probes coming in from the deep trenches of outer space, crafts having come by and gone, speeds that cannot be faster than light speed, one thing always come to my mind, as far as I know. We think of those things from a human point of view, from a technological point of view that emerged from our human minds.

Other races out there could be so different that what ever they'd have, not only technologically but morally and philosophically could just be like magic to us. Simply because there'd be no way for us to comprehend it.

S&F.



posted on Jul, 28 2014 @ 07:27 PM
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originally posted by: VoidHawk

originally posted by: smithjustinb
Intelligent life may not be prevalent. There is only one species on Earth capable of doing anything like this. There are millions of species on Earth that aren't and have no desire to do this. We're unique on this planet. Who's to say we're not unique among others?


Monkeys have recently been found to be using tools, some have been found making things such as umbrellas, how long before they're talking?
We're discovering whales and dolphins are highly intelligent, maybe in a few thousand years they too will be talking.
We are not unique on this earth, we just have a little head start.


That's a very good point on other intelligent species on earth. Whale and Dolphin speech is completely alien to us, but we do know it has a high degree of complexity and they do have names for each other. Having a name and using a name with others shows a high degree of sentience.

On tool use, Dolphins and Whales are not blessed with hands or prehensile appendages. I've always wondered what tools they might have developed if they had been blessed with manual dexterity. Even with their physical limitations, some dolphins have been found to make use of a tool, a conch shell gripped in their mouth, to scoop up small fish. They then drop the shell near the shallow ocean bottom and eat the fish as they swim out. This behavior has actually spread to other dolphins in the region where the behavior was discovered, and is still spreading, which seems to indicate the ability to teach others in the technique.

www.theatlantic.com...
www.wired.com...

Also, look at how short a time, in the scheme of things, Homo Sapiens have been around. We coexisted for a time with the Neanderthals, a second intelligent, tool using species. We may have been two branches of the same tree, but we were distinct evolutionary outgrowths of that tree. Evidence seems to mount that Homo Sapiens contributed greatly to the demise of the Neanderthals. They aren't gone because they failed to adapt to the ecology of Earth, they died because they couldn't adapt to us.

If natural disaster had wiped out our ancestors in the infancy of our species, it's very likely Neanderthals would have evolved as a species and as a culture in much the same way we did. Even if the timescale were different, it doesn't matter.

How many other co-evolutionary species exhibiting the potential to rival us might we have snuffed out before they could be established? How many intelligent species might evolve on Earth, over time, if we were to suddenly vanish?

We like to believe we are unique, but there is the likelihood we are not unique, in potential, over the entire timeline of habitability on our planet, let alone the Galaxy and the Universe.
edit on 28-7-2014 by Totemic because: Links
edit on 28-7-2014 by Totemic because: Spelling



posted on Jul, 28 2014 @ 07:27 PM
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With more than 100 million habitable planets in OUR galaxy alone, according to scientists, and it also appears our galaxy is rather small, say compared to our neighbor Andromeda, I find it highly probably that there is intelligent advanced forms of life everywhere in the universe. We have been and are being visited by et's and alien probes.
edit on 28pm31pm5091 by data5091 because: (no reason given)



posted on Jul, 28 2014 @ 07:35 PM
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a reply to: SonoftheSun

Really good thoughts on this.

It could be something we breath in or ingest after a rain storm that is sent here and we would never recognize it and then when we expel it, it then disintegrates or is magnetized to return back to the waiting source above.
OR
It could be a dust released into our atmosphere which then attaches its self to us as tiny little antenna like probes.
OR
Some type of echolocation or frequency waves that bounce back to them with information or data that has been picked up.


Agreed ! Ya just never know what the advanced capabilities may be ?


leolady



posted on Jul, 28 2014 @ 07:37 PM
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originally posted by: Totemic
Given the likely prevalence of intelligent life in our galaxy and the likelihood that a fair portion of those civilizations have hundreds of millions or billions of years on us, the probability is that our solar system has been probed by multitudes of alien civilizations throughout the history of our system.

This is where you lose me.

Show me the mathematical equations showing the likely prevalence, and the equation showing their age.



posted on Jul, 28 2014 @ 07:40 PM
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One of the first things that came to mind while reading through this thread.


Ya just never know....



posted on Jul, 28 2014 @ 07:54 PM
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No you certainly don't.....cool picture....
But think of something like the red rain that hit Kerala province in India....its a new kind of life form they found in it.....
Why couldn't spores or viruses etc travel space and survive?
I think they do.....



posted on Jul, 28 2014 @ 08:16 PM
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Yes they do haha, there is a very good article on the Fermi paradox that i read on this site that explain well the kind of things life that is born on a planet might have to go trough before reaching who knows what level of sophistication.

I personally think life evolved on multiple planets to different levels (even in our solar system) but that we could count with one hand the ones that could have been passed a certain level without annihilation by let's say asteroids, or war, or stellar destruction.

Even if there's only some they could be at the other end of the galaxy and we'll never know..



posted on Jul, 28 2014 @ 08:38 PM
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originally posted by: SLAYER69
One of the first things that came to mind while reading through this thread.


Ya just never know....



Come now Slayer, we both know what is being depicted there.






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