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Mathematicians say it is likely alien probes have reached earth.

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posted on Jul, 29 2014 @ 03:14 PM

The Drake equation is:
N = R_[ast] cdot f_p cdot n_e cdot f_[ell] cdot f_i cdot f_c cdot L
where:
N = the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which radio-communication might be possible (i.e. which are on our current past light cone);

"N" is what is known as a variable. You can just as easily plug in ZERO there. N represents your outcomes and because there is a total number of outcomes that equals zero, you have to imagine them. Now what fun would it be to plug in a zero? There is absolutely nothing wrong with doing this but it absolutely does not represent an actual probability. Its just a fun way to speculate and imagine aliens.
edit on 29-7-2014 by ZetaRediculian because: (no reason given)

posted on Jul, 29 2014 @ 03:33 PM
Logically N has to be greater than or equal to 1.

posted on Jul, 29 2014 @ 04:01 PM

originally posted by: VoidHawk

originally posted by: LogicalRazor

It is still probable that WE are the only civilization that has advanced technologically.

Why?
Being as WE know practically nothing about whats out there I find that hard to believe.

Precisely for that reason. When there are too many variables and unknowns, the possibility AND probability that we are as advanced as civilizations have gotten, and the only ones that have survived this long.....simply cannot be discounted. It is in fact very possible we may not be alone,...but are the nexus of technological advancement (Up to this point). There's just no way to discount that possibility and no credible evidence to say otherwise.

posted on Jul, 29 2014 @ 04:05 PM

Logically N has to be greater than or equal to 1.

N = the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which radio-communication might be possible

radio communication requires two parties in order for it to be considered communication. so there is us. If I try to call someone and nobody is there to answer, the total communications that took place would be zero. Communication could be considered possible if we know that the other party exists. If there is no way to know that the other party exists or not, then the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which radio-communication might be possible could very well be zero.
edit on 29-7-2014 by ZetaRediculian because: (no reason given)

posted on Jul, 29 2014 @ 04:58 PM

originally posted by: Jonjonj
Oh, and just a thought, the whole idea of von Neumann like probes surely indicates the interest of an alien species to at least discover, and maybe conquer, other worlds. I'm not sure that all possible alien civilisations may have these goals as their primary objectives. So, perhaps be careful with those we may encounter...as their motives seem to be clearer

Depends if they come bearing the gift the religion.

posted on Jul, 29 2014 @ 05:01 PM

We are not unique on this earth, we just have a little head start.

What a great way of looking at it.

Nice one VoidHawk.

posted on Jul, 29 2014 @ 05:18 PM
Self replicating space probes sounds a bit iffy to me. The energy required to send probes between star systems has been estimated to be at least equivalent to the total energy consumed by the human race in a year. So they'd be weight conscious, ruling out weight needed for self replication and energy mining machinery.

More likely they'd use their huge space telescopes to examine planets for signs of life and only send probes to the best candidates. With something like 1-2 million stars within 500 light years one would hope they'd find at least a few candidates. If they could build probes that can constantly accelerate at 1G they'd be able to reach them all within 8-10 years (probe time). If faster than light communication is possible (interference pattern from entangled photons etc) they might even have real time control over the probes. So next time you see a UFO don't forget to wave.

posted on Jul, 29 2014 @ 08:53 PM
who cares what they calculated? I don't get why people need to have some egghead's "official" blessing that ET is this or ET is that, or Et has probably already sent out probes blah blah blah. it's pathetic. let's just get on with the next move here. come on people grow the f up. a reply to: Totemic

posted on Jul, 29 2014 @ 09:24 PM

originally posted by: bottleslingguy
who cares what they calculated?

I personally think its a really good way to get an idea of what is possible. Exercises like this really help with thinking better.

I don't get why people need to have some egghead's "official" blessing that ET is this or ET is that, or Et has probably already sent out probes blah blah blah.

What official blessing?

it's pathetic.

How is examining a well written paper pathetic?

let's just get on with the next move here.

which would be?

come on people grow the f up.

Its spelled "eff".
edit on 29-7-2014 by ZetaRediculian because: (no reason given)

posted on Jul, 29 2014 @ 09:30 PM
Billions of stars and billions of years and human life is as advanced as it gets.

What a waste of a universe.

posted on Jul, 29 2014 @ 10:44 PM

originally posted by: bottleslingguy
who cares what they calculated? I don't get why people need to have some egghead's "official" blessing that ET is this or ET is that, or Et has probably already sent out probes blah blah blah. it's pathetic. let's just get on with the next move here. come on people grow the f up. a reply to: Totemic

Having zero absolute evidence of alien visitation after many decades, many thousands of sightings, stories, abductions and on- there needs to be justification in the eyes of believers. That's why UFO cover ups and conspiracies are created to rationalize why we have no physical evidence for this physical event. They attempt to use science or mathematics to show *YES! They probably are here.* Yet, a majority of the scientific community and scientifically minded people say... No, they aren't here. We need evidence.

They're either here or they aren't. There's no kinda - sorta - maybe 'grey' area. The lack of concrete evidence in the span of decades and many thousands of claims shows they aren't here.

posted on Jul, 29 2014 @ 11:53 PM

In 4.5 Billion years of Earth's existence man has only existed in the last 2 million years or so. So during 99.95% of Earth's existence a probe would have found no intelligent life here.

Why you hatin' on gators?

You a Seminole?

Harte

posted on Jul, 29 2014 @ 11:58 PM

originally posted by: Ectoplasm8

originally posted by: bottleslingguy
who cares what they calculated? I don't get why people need to have some egghead's "official" blessing that ET is this or ET is that, or Et has probably already sent out probes blah blah blah. it's pathetic. let's just get on with the next move here. come on people grow the f up. a reply to: Totemic

Having zero absolute evidence of alien visitation after many decades, many thousands of sightings, stories, abductions and on- there needs to be justification in the eyes of believers. That's why UFO cover ups and conspiracies are created to rationalize why we have no physical evidence for this physical event. They attempt to use science or mathematics to show *YES! They probably are here.* Yet, a majority of the scientific community and scientifically minded people say... No, they aren't here. We need evidence.

They're either here or they aren't. There's no kinda - sorta - maybe 'grey' area. The lack of concrete evidence in the span of decades and many thousands of claims shows they aren't here.

Not necessarily. It only takes one of those millions of sightings or reports to be real.

Taken a step further. It's quite possible that all sightings and reports are false and that these civilizations that are millions of years more evolved and advanced than us can send probes that can spy on us, so to speak, that we cannot detect yet with our puny, stone aged technology. This thread was only talking about the mathematical probabilities and they are quite high.

posted on Jul, 30 2014 @ 12:00 AM

originally posted by: amazing
This thread was only talking about the mathematical probabilities and they are quite high.

No, the opposite of that.

Harte

posted on Jul, 30 2014 @ 12:01 AM

originally posted by: Harte

originally posted by: amazing
This thread was only talking about the mathematical probabilities and they are quite high.

No, the opposite of that.

Harte

Wow. How are you so sure? Why the opposite of that?

posted on Jul, 30 2014 @ 12:42 AM

Wrong. They take into account intelligent life capable of space travel and also self annihilation. Check out the drake equation.

posted on Jul, 30 2014 @ 02:38 AM

originally posted by: amazing
Not necessarily. It only takes one of those millions of sightings or reports to be real.

Taken a step further. It's quite possible that all sightings and reports are false and that these civilizations that are millions of years more evolved and advanced than us can send probes that can spy on us, so to speak, that we cannot detect yet with our puny, stone aged technology. This thread was only talking about the mathematical probabilities and they are quite high.

It also takes that one real sighting to change everything. It means another intelligent species exists. A species that either is nefarious and wants to colonize Earth etc., or one that is curious of life in other places. We're still here, so this hypothetical alien UFO/probe is probably curious. Curiosity brings more probes and more interest. More chances for evidence. Where is this evidence? Why would a species curious of outside life and goes to the trouble of searching for it, only ignore that life? Ignore a life form (humans) that actively search for other types of life? These theories fall apart and defy common sense. Think deeper and beyond the surface of these theories.

As with the OP, who seeded this thread and mysteriously disappeared, you're dealing in assumptions. Assumptions because at this point it's still all you have. Assumptions that believers try to manipulate into mathematical possibilities and "scientific" arguments. It's a tactic that works for believers I guess, not for anyone else though.

I can't argue 'invisible' probes. I can argue mathematical probabilities of phenomena that has yet to provide:
A- Any sign or detection of intelligent life beyond the Earth-bound claims. For example- A signal discovered by SETI.
B- Any sign that space travel in the term of light years can realistically and safely be accomplished.
C- Any irrefutable physical evidence of a single case.

You can push these theories as far as you want into "probabilities".... You can think this is good enough to show "they" are here. But, it's not actual evidence of anything.
edit on 30-7-2014 by Ectoplasm8 because: (no reason given)

posted on Jul, 30 2014 @ 03:27 AM
If your lucky enough to have clear skies, go outside tonight and spend 30 minutes looking up.

posted on Jul, 30 2014 @ 07:07 AM
Speaking of mathematics... check out this calculation! It proves that the UFO phenomenon is of the devil.

What if Aliens are in fact Fallen Angels!

UNIDENTIFIED FLYING OBJECTS | EXTRATERRESTRIALS | MAJESTIC TWELVE = (267) + (232) + (167) = 666!

posted on Jul, 30 2014 @ 08:50 AM
I am waiting for the day that aliens arrive and tell us how we have the 'facts' of the universe all wrong. Much like the flat Earth and Earth concentric solar system days.

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