Mathematicians say it is likely alien probes have reached earth.

originally posted by: amazing

I think there is a really good mathematical probability that alien probes have visited earth or at least our solar system.

Can you share with me the equations you are using?

originally posted by: SLAYER69
One of the first things that came to mind while reading through this thread.


Ya just never know....

Does that thing get HBO?

I think this could actually go some way in explaining a lot of the UFO sightings, including mine.
They are probes??

This could be the explanation of one particular sighting I've had.

Thanks OP

Self-replicating as a mushroom perhaps? Spores on a meteorite-like device? Hmmm...

originally posted by: Totemic
www.theepochtimes.com...

Slingshot Dynamics for Self Replicating Probes and the Effect on Exploration Timescales
arxiv.org...

Full PDF file:
arxiv.org...


A pair of mathematicians have calculated how long it would take for an advanced species to send probes to every star in the galaxy, assuming some pretty conservative parameters. For the purpose of their calculations, they assumed the ability to create self replicating space probes capable of traveling at an average speed of 10% of the speed of light. If such probes made a few copies of themselves upon reaching a new star system and sent that probe off to the next system as it turned it's attention towards study of it's target system, probes could investigate every star system in 10 Million years.

Given the likely prevalence of intelligent life in our galaxy and the likelihood that a fair portion of those civilizations have hundreds of millions or billions of years on us, the probability is that our solar system has been probed by multitudes of alien civilizations throughout the history of our system.

Given the FACT that every statement in the first two paragraphs are at best GUESSWORK and can be wrong on every count I have recalculated the chances as ZERO,NIL, NADA,ZILCH,NOTHING and my calculations have exactly the same chance of being correct as theirs.

If we are not super special and rare and only intelligence in galaxy then there is likely thousands of intelligent life through the eons. We should make it a NASA priority if not DOD priority to look for such Probes in our solar system.

Moon would be excellent location for placing a probe to monitor earth. If aliens can travel in space then they can and would be looking for blue planets and they would have detected us now in the billions of years the Universe and earth has existed.

How long has Earth been blue and with life. How far out would the blue light have traveled since Earth became blue with life? Figure that out and we can figure out how far out species could have detected earth by now.

I think most alien probes would be made of asteroids. Why send resources into space when you can just take small rocky and metal asteroids add propulsion and instruments and send them on their way?

Actually, the paper only calculates rates of probes reaching solar systems, not planets.

It establishes the Fermi Paradox as being a reasonable statement of a real paradox.

The entire thing is based on an alien intelligent society existing, first, and secondly deciding to to execute such a search, which isn't actually a search at all, just an attempt to reach as many stars as possible.

Stopping on Earth blows up the whole thing because any such probe would no longer be part of the exploration.

Note that the progressive slingshot maneuvers around visited stars would result in extremely high velocities. There comes a point where a probe is going so fast that it takes a very massive star to affect this slingshot maneuver, otherwise the probe would simply shoot past the star if it didn't contain enough mass to slingshot the probe.

Harte

Finally, I can refer to one of my favorite videos on the entire Web!
A talk by Stuart Armstrong, at the Oxford physics department, entitled:
Von Neumann probes, Dyson spheres, exploratory engineering and the Fermi paradox.



And it is even hard science!

I think there is an assumptions being made as to the size of the universe and also to the time scales involved.
The Earth could have very easily had probes that visited in the first 4 billion years and found it completely unnoteworthy and we would have no evidence of this happening.

a reply to: Totemic

The subject of the original paper on which the Epoch Times based its article is: 'Slingshot dynamics for self-replicating probes and the effect on exploration timescales.' You can read it in full here (warning: it's a PDF).

The article looks at how much faster a given volume of space can be explored by self-replicating space probes (sometimes called Von Neumann machines) if the probes use slingshot manoeuvres to navigate from star to star and to increase their velocity, just like our human space-probes do.


They calculate that if slingshot manoeuvres are used, the amount of time can be reduced by a factor of 100.

The paper is purely theoretical. All facts and figures used in it are based on the authors' assumptions, which are sometimes quite unrealistic. The original figure of a million to a 100 million years to explore the Galaxy without using slingshot dynamics is supposedly taken from another (also completely theoretical) paper from 1975 by M.H. Hart, though I can't seem to find it there.

So, basically, these guys are saying, 'We started with a made-up figure for how long it takes to explore the galaxy with self-replicating probes, basing that figure on some assumptions we think are reasonable but have absolutely no proof of, and then introduced some more assumed figures about the use of slingshot dynamics by the probes. We then did the maths, which gave us another figure for how long it takes, which is 100 times less than the earlier figure (though it's still a made-up figure). And if we pretend that figure is real, then aliens should already have visited Earth.'

For the purposes of deciding whether aliens have really visited Earth or not, the paper is not much use at all. It is really about how much faster you can go zipping about the Galaxy if you use gravity to sling your probes around.

originally posted by: Totemic

Given the likely prevalence of intelligent life in our galaxy and the likelihood that a fair portion of those civilizations have hundreds of millions or billions of years on us, the probability is that our solar system has been probed by multitudes of alien civilizations throughout the history of our system.

Sadly, that's where the logic is flawed. Alligators? Many millions of years over us, when did they last set foot on the moon? Cockroaches? Likewise.

originally posted by: OccamsRazor04

originally posted by: amazing

I think there is a really good mathematical probability that alien probes have visited earth or at least our solar system.

Can you share with me the equations you are using?

why do you disagree?

Sadly, that's where the logic is flawed. Alligators? Many millions of years over us, when did they last set foot on the moon? Cockroaches? Likewise. "

originally posted by: uncommitted

"

Perhaps you misunderstand his point. In 4.5 Billion years of Earth's existence man has only existed in the last 2 million years or so. So during 99.95% of Earth's existence a probe would have found no intelligent life here. The Universe is theoretically 3 times as old as the Earth so there were likely countless civilizations that waxed and waned even before the Earth existed.

originally posted by: VoidHawk

originally posted by: LogicalRazor

It is still probable that WE are the only civilization that has advanced technologically.

Why?

Because the odds aren't 0. So there is a chance that it could be true.

Being as WE know practically nothing about whats out there I find that hard to believe.

You are using the word probable differently than the way the poster used it. You are thinking of him saying that it is highly likely that this is the case, when in reality he is just saying that there is a chance that it is the case. BIG difference here.

I think one day soon we are going to realise that its teeming with very advanced life out there, and that WE are only just getting out of the trees in comparison.

Maybe, maybe not.

a reply to: Totemic

Thanks Totemic, interesting stuff.

Of course, hypothetically speaking, if a species (or several species) has reached a technological stage where they are able to send such probes to every star system in our Galaxy, there is no requirement for them to have existed in a technological state for the 10 million years required to complete the project.

It's entirely conceivable that a given species develops a technological society, matures and designs the probe project.

The initial project would only have to consist of one single probe, since it is self replicating using materials found en-route.

It could be launched, monitored perhaps until it has replicated a number of times and then there is no longer a reason for the builder species to necessarily have to survive beyond that point for the project to accomplish its mission.

They could have died out soon after launching the probe. The probe would continue onwards without them, or at least without their input if they had suffered a cataclysm and reverted to a lower technological state of being.

Who knows....our own species may have launched such a project ourselves at some point during the last couple of million years or so, and we'd never know we had, unless one came back to deliver the data it carried back to us (black Knight satellite anyone?)

I suppose what i mean is any number of species may have done something like this and never survived very long beyond the launch of the probes, or not long enough to see the project through to its conclusion anyway.

We may be one such species...or not.

originally posted by: PleiaDsClusterDck
Sadly, that's where the logic is flawed. Alligators? Many millions of years over us, when did they last set foot on the moon? Cockroaches? Likewise. "

originally posted by: uncommitted

"

Perhaps you misunderstand his point. In 4.5 Billion years of Earth's existence man has only existed in the last 2 million years or so. So during 99.95% of Earth's existence a probe would have found no intelligent life here. The Universe is theoretically 3 times as old as the Earth so there were likely countless civilizations that waxed and waned even before the Earth existed.

So..... it took 4.48 billion years for what we call Humankind to exist on Earth, but you believe other planets had a shortcut? Theoretically of course that is probable, of course, theoretically it is equally improbable. That's the thing. And no, it doesn't make it likely, it just makes it a possibility. I don't misunderstand his point, I think his point is flawed, there is a chasm of a difference.

Oh, and to say if such a probe visited and because there was no Humankind then there was no intelligence? I'm afraid that's where we start talking in very cheap sci fi novel territory.

originally posted by: Shaded27
I think this could actually go some way in explaining a lot of the UFO sightings, including mine.
They are probes??

This could be the explanation of one particular sighting I've had.

Thanks OP

Indeed they could be probes, what we refer to as 'ET' may just be a self replicating, autonomous element of the probe..a tool which is part of the whole.

We think of them as the pilots or the species that must have built their craft, but perhaps this is totally wrong.

Our frame of reference is what we do on our planet...we build ships and flying craft and usually we occupy them and travel in them ourselves..so naturally we would think that 'ET' would probably do the same thing...build a craft and travel inside it.

But what if they don't do that? What if the beings reported as being inside the craft are actually a part or component of the craft...created to perform functions for the mission and are not actually the builders of the craft?

originally posted by: OccamsRazor04
Can you share with me the equations you are using?

originally posted by: amazing
why do you disagree?

Probably because there is no actual mathematical probability that can be determined. There is absolutely no way to calculate the probability of life outside of our planet. It is the mathematical equivalent of trying to calculate the likeliness of giant mutant insects taking over the world. Since giant mutant insects don't exist and have never tried to take over, there is not much to say about that.

Based on the sample size of x number of planets, there are exactly ZERO known aliens. Now try to calculate how likely it is that aliens exist in the rest of the universe and show your work.

Honestly, if anyone can provide the math of how to calculate the existence of something unknown based on zero known outcomes, please share. Please.

The Drake equation is:
N = R_[\ast] \cdot f_p \cdot n_e \cdot f_[\ell] \cdot f_i \cdot f_c \cdot L
where:
N = the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which radio-communication might be possible (i.e. which are on our current past light cone);
and
R* = the average rate of star formation in our galaxyfp = the fraction of those stars that have planetsne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planetsfl = the fraction of planets that could support life that actually develop life at some pointfi = the fraction of planets with life that actually go on to develop intelligent life (civilizations)fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into spaceL = the length of time for which such civilizations release detectable signals into space[8]

originally posted by: Snoopy1978
Self-replicating as a mushroom perhaps? Spores on a meteorite-like device? Hmmm...

Mushroom spores (certain ones) are covered by the densest organic material known. They also can survive extreme temperatures and UV radiation. Fungi generally are quite good for the ecosystem they live in, and break down dead material.

I would say that we may have a species or two of alien plants/fungus around us right now and we'd never realize it. Human beings always assume alien life will look like us and talk/walk. Perhaps we need to re-evaluate our definition of ET's?