Astronauts: Only thing Preventing a 'City-Killer' Sized Asteroid Hit is Blind Luck."

originally posted by: leolady
I just wonder... what if the capture mission goes terribly wrong and they actually divert one of these suckers right toward us and then can't stop it. Yikes !

leolady

We can't capture and divert large asteroids, their mass and kinetic energy is just too great. A small asteroid, like shown in the picture, would explode in the upper atmosphere with little effect on the ground.

originally posted by: FlyersFan
It's just a matter of time ...

It always has been and always will be. The only thing that changes is peoples choice to pay attention to it or ignore it. Thank you for sharing this article brother.

a reply to: NoFearsEqualsFreeMan

You're falling into the idea of: "We must solve all of our problems here on the surface of the Earth before we can do anything else."

Which is a epic fail.

Here is why: Trying to solve everything on the Earth is going to take time. A long time.

Given enough time, more problems crop up, some that we don't even know exists today.

So what? We wait some more?

Bad move.

As more time goes by, the chances of something happening (and having little to NO warning about) increase, and keep increasing.

Ignoring it, and hoping it does not happen until you've solved everything else is like turning your back on something.

There is absolutely NO reason why we (the human race) and not do BOTH.

It never ceases to amaze me at how many think that we can not multitask. Apparently , according to some on here, the human race can not chew gum and walk at the same time.

:we REALLY need an eye rolling emote ATS:

originally posted by: eriktheawful
a reply to: NoFearsEqualsFreeMan

You're falling into the idea of: "We must solve all of our problems here on the surface of the Earth before we can do anything else."

Which is a epic fail.

Here is why: Trying to solve everything on the Earth is going to take time. A long time.

Given enough time, more problems crop up, some that we don't even know exists today.

So what? We wait some more?

Bad move.

As more time goes by, the chances of something happening (and having little to NO warning about) increase, and keep increasing.

Ignoring it, and hoping it does not happen until you've solved everything else is like turning your back on something.

There is absolutely NO reason why we (the human race) and not do BOTH.

It never ceases to amaze me at how many think that we can not multitask. Apparently , according to some on here, the human race can not chew gum and walk at the same time.

:we REALLY need an eye rolling emote ATS:

You pressume alot, and you can categorise me if you like

It is ok you dont understand what iam trying to say, but you should really read it through one more time, just in case you get it...


ETA:

Here is why: Trying to solve everything on the Earth is going to take time. A long time. Given enough time, more problems crop up, some that we don't even know exists today.

The thing is, we have to learn NOT to try solve everything, leave OTHER´S problems alone and focus on oneself, that way we wouldnt create so many new problems But that is a hole other talk

originally posted by: eriktheawful
a reply to: NoFearsEqualsFreeMan

You're falling into the idea of: "We must solve all of our problems here on the surface of the Earth before we can do anything else."

Which is a epic fail.

Here is why: Trying to solve everything on the Earth is going to take time. A long time.

Given enough time, more problems crop up, some that we don't even know exists today.

So what? We wait some more?

Bad move.

As more time goes by, the chances of something happening (and having little to NO warning about) increase, and keep increasing.

Ignoring it, and hoping it does not happen until you've solved everything else is like turning your back on something.

There is absolutely NO reason why we (the human race) and not do BOTH.

It never ceases to amaze me at how many think that we can not multitask. Apparently , according to some on here, the human race can not chew gum and walk at the same time.

:we REALLY need an eye rolling emote ATS:

The mistake you're making is assuming that more time passing = imminent disaster. I really don't understand how you've come to that conclusion, it makes no sense. If your theory held any merit we would've been wiped out before we were even capable of forming civilizations on this planet.

We truly have no control over this world, humans may errantly assume we do but as history shows, human kind can't stop nature.

The laws of the universe aren't subject to us, we are subject to them.

originally posted by: wildespace

originally posted by: FlyersFan
Since 2001, 26 atomic-bomb-scale explosions have occurred in remote locations around the world, far from populated areas, made evident by a nuclear weapons test warning network.

It's just a matter of time ...

A relatively small asteroid, just a couple of meters across, can create an atomic-bomb-scale aerial explosion. Most of such impacts happen in the upper reaches of the atmosphere, and have no effect on the surface. The Chelyabinsk meteor, about 17 meters across, produced a more powerful explosion, but only resulted in broken glass and some structural damage. An asteroid probably needs to be 25-30 meters across to actually make it to the ground and produce a crater and wide destruction. While there is a chance that we might completely overlook the approach of such object, I think it's more likely that it will be noticed at least a day or two before the impact.

But raising awareness is good. We need more dedicated networks of observatories to monitor the sky for these visitors.

~~~

And now I'm waiting for SayonaraJupiter to post his von Braun / Dr Rosin prediction again.

I live in Virginia Beach and work in Newport News. Its a short commute by car (61 miles round trip). When we have 2-3 inches of snowfall, it can and has taken me 4-5 hours to just get home. So, the thought of a "day or two" notice before possible impact is not a thought I would like to entertain. I'm sure its the same in other major cities/states.

I think a problem we have is people think it could never happen to us... right?

We've seen it in movies so many times. And movies aren't real... so surely?

It's a very real and never ending threat. But why worry? We can't prevent it.

I agree whole heartedly.The fact we're not making a serious effort for creation of some kind of planetary defense is tantamount to suicide to me.It only takes one large hit one time and if any survive they would live like cavemen.Very scary.

handsome youtu.be... Murmansk Saturday 2:10 Moscow time burned in the atmosphere, no explosion

a reply to: FlyersFan

You need an astronaut to tell you it's mere luck? You realize an astronaut is the sailor of space. I don't ask sailors for science involving waves. I mean sure a sailor would know more about waves than the average man, but a man who's life is to study said medium would be better suited.


You want to know what outer space is? When you really break it down. The universe is one enormous traffic jam...

a reply to: Hijinx

I think those astronauts are really just the spokesmen, due to how prominent in the public eye they are. For rasing global awareness, a famous sailor might get more ears and exposure than some obscure "wave scientists".

P.S. A related article: Red Tape Hinders Study of Asteroid Impacts on Earth

Multiple scientists noted that the JPL website had not been updated recently. That presumably meant that there was some sort of delay, as some fairly big events were detected by infrasound in the last year.

"Because of budget and personnel reductions on our military partner, they ran into workforce issues to accomplish this task," said Lindley Johnson, NEO program executive within the Planetary Science Division of NASA's Science Mission Directorate in Washington, D.C.

"We are already in discussions with them about what it will take to get it restarted," Johnson told Space.com.

Taking personnel off a task of providing useful science data from meteor events could be seen as a cost-saver. But Clark Chapman, asteroid expert at the Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, Colo., questions how much money could actually be saved by these cutbacks.

"There aren't that many events," Chapman told Space.com, "so it is difficult for me to imagine that it would take any major part of one person's time to alert the public and scientific community to the detected bolides."

originally posted by: Hijinx
You need an astronaut to tell you it's mere luck?

What? No, I don't 'NEED" an astronaut to tell me the fact that we are in danger.
I have no idea why you'd use that particular wording. That's silly.

The astronauts, just by their job title, draw more attention then others.
So having them present the information is a good thing. People will be more apt to listen.

a reply to: FlyersFan

It's also worth noting that Astronauts are not mere "sailors of space". They are, without exception, degree educated scientists and engineers, whilst you're average sailor is usually not anywhere near as educated, so while they may know something about the sea, you wouldn't ask one about fluid dynamics, but I'd be quite confident asking the same question of an astronaut would yield an informative discussion.

originally posted by: wildespace

originally posted by: FlyersFan
Since 2001, 26 atomic-bomb-scale explosions have occurred in remote locations around the world, far from populated areas, made evident by a nuclear weapons test warning network.

It's just a matter of time ...

A relatively small asteroid, just a couple of meters across, can create an atomic-bomb-scale aerial explosion. Most of such impacts happen in the upper reaches of the atmosphere, and have no effect on the surface. The Chelyabinsk meteor, about 17 meters across, produced a more powerful explosion, but only resulted in broken glass and some structural damage. An asteroid probably needs to be 25-30 meters across to actually make it to the ground and produce a crater and wide destruction. While there is a chance that we might completely overlook the approach of such object, I think it's more likely that it will be noticed at least a day or two before the impact.

But raising awareness is good. We need more dedicated networks of observatories to monitor the sky for these visitors.

~~~

And now I'm waiting for SayonaraJupiter to post his von Braun / Dr Rosin prediction again.

first the threat will be communists, then rogue nations, then terrorists, then asteroids, then aliens and it will all be a lie!

you mean that quote which I surely misquoted in some places?

anyway, if they were talking about explosions in the atmosphere, there would be a lot more than 26 since 2001. I think they must be talking about something else like surface hits. If we are to believe this. Heck I think it's a good idea to watch the sky for rocks. It seems foolish not to have some defense against this as soon as it's possible. Of course some people will say that we already have a defense system in place and have spaceships that have been all over the galaxy so therefore this is just a way to keep us focused and under control and also to make it appear that our tech is at a certain level when really it's "lightyears" ahead. Hehe... lightyears.

a reply to: 3n19m470

Those 26 impacts they mentioned are on the small atomic bomb scale, creating air bursts that were detected by the infrasound sensors. Smaller explosions happen much more often, of course, but are too weak to detect or to give them significance.

I'm sure an actual ground impact would be noticeable to more than just those sensor stations, as the explosion at the ground level would be quite strong.

By the way, here's a fun online calculator for impacts: impact.ese.ic.ac.uk...
Here are some results I got for typical values for a dense rocky asteroid entering at 17 km/s and at 45 degrees angle:

A 30-meter asteroid will explode approximately 15 km above ground with the force of 10.8 megatons. No crater is formed, although large fragments may strike the surface.

A 50-meter asteroid will cause real carnage, exploding at 7.5 km above ground with the force of 59.8 megatons. Building will collapse, trees will be blown down or stripped of branches and leaves. But still no crater. Fragments hitting the earth may form their own craters, though (I've visited some in Estonia).

For a main crater to form, the asteroid has to be about 85 meters wide, and the crater will be huge.

I was just having this discussion with my wife yesterday while watching Cosmos. I told her that within the next 10-15 years we would see a city-killer asteroid impact somewhere on Earth. I base that entirely on the commonality of such asteroids in our solar system as well as the sheer number of such asteroids in close proximity to Earth.

I do my best not to even think about, let alone worry about, things I have no control over. I am not perfect at it by any stretch, but I have gotten better at it over the years and I really am better for it.

1. Does X concern me?
2. Yes ---> Can I do anything about it?
3. Act.
4. No ---> Meh...Put it out of my mind.

I may discuss it a little bit to get my thoughts out of my head and organized, but that is usually it.

My early adult life was full of tragedy and violence - I started the above as a survival strategy both physical and emotional. Over the decades knowing I have been through hell and survived and thrived has made me less reactive to potential threats of any kind to family, friends, career, financial. The confidence that comes from knowing how to recover from the worst is truly calming.

It takes discipline to put things out your mind that may just annoy you, but when it becomes a habit the reward is a much clearer mind.

The world is full of injustice, an empathetic person might go mad if they can't find a way to deal with the anger and frustration of things they can't fix - or at least make better.

It is worth it to me.

ok thats why it was removed then thanks for clearing it up a reply to: woogleuk

a reply to: wildespace


This statement is redacted.

originally posted by: FlyersFan

It's just a matter of time ...

A matter of time for what? If you look at what percentage of Earth's surface is covered by an Urban area, chances are that these things will keep falling on areas of low population density.